TASMANIANS are poised to elect a hung parliament tomorrow, ending 12 years of Labor majority rule and providing critical momentum to the Coalition months before a federal election.
A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian shows no party will have the numbers to govern in its own right, with the Greens set to secure a remarkable quarter of primary votes.
The most likely result, according to the poll of almost 1500 voters, is a House of Assembly where no party has a majority, with Liberal and Labor stalled on 10 seats each and the Greens rising from four to five seats.
With the South Australian election also on a knife-edge, Labor faces the possible loss of two state governments, potentially creating an irresistible momentum for Tony Abbott and the federal Coalition.
In SA, Premier Mike Rann and Liberal leader Isobel Redmond will make a final pitch to voters today on the key issues of leadership and trust, as many pundits continue to predict a hung parliament.
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Under Tasmania’s constitution, the first move in any such deadlock would rest with Labor Premier David Bartlett.
As the incumbent, caretaker premier, he would need to advise Governor Peter Underwood who should try to form government.
Mr Bartlett has promised that, in the event of the Liberals winning more seats than Labor, but being short of a majority, he would advise Mr Underwood to ask Mr Hodgman to try to form a government. He has said that, in the event of Labor and Liberal having an equal number of seats, the party with the biggest statewide vote should govern.
On these Newspoll results, that would also hand government to Mr Hodgman. However, Mr Bartlett has at times equivocated on this question, and is likely to come under pressure from his surviving parliamentary colleagues to hold on to power in the event of a tie.
Both major party leaders have ruled out a coalition or power-sharing deal with the Greens despite the instability of an unsupported minority government.
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Mr McKim, 44, said he would seek to negotiate a coalition government with both leaders and be guided by which could deliver the most in terms of the Greens’ policy agenda. However, he has insisted that no issue – not even iconic Greens demands such as an end to old growth logging and scrapping of the Gunns pulp mill – would be a “deal-breaker”.
Mr Bartlett has told The Australian he is ready to horse-trade with the other parties to achieve Labor’s legislative agenda on the floor of the assembly, but not to form a coalition. Mr Hodgman has taken an even harder line, insisting the Liberals would not compromise policies in negotiations over legislation.
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It shows that in the Hobart-based seat of Denison, the Greens are on track to make history by claiming a second seat, at Labor’s expense. This would see Hobart’s Greens Deputy Lord Mayor Helen Burnet join sitting Greens MP Cassy O’Connor, in representing the electorate, reducing Labor to two seats.
This in turn would mean that Labor would lose at least one of its three high-profile Denison MPs: Mr Bartlett and cabinet ministers Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges.
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