Media release – EMRS, 24 May 2023
Plunge in Voter Support for the Government
After a year of Tasmanian voter preferences showing little change and the State Liberal Government maintaining its considerable lead over the Labor opposition, the latest EMRS poll conducted in May reveals a significant decline in Liberal voter support.
The latest poll of 1,000 Tasmanian adults was conducted from the 15th to the 19th of May 2023.
After excluding undecided voters, support for the Government currently stands at 36 per cent, a fall of 6 percentage points from 42 per cent recorded in the previous February poll. Labor support now stands at 31 per cent, up marginally from 30 per cent in February.
Paul Jamrozik (EMRS’ Managing Director) said, “After a long period of our polling results remaining steady, this is the first time since December 2021 where voter support for the Liberal Government has shown a decisive fall. However, this has not translated into notable rises in support levels for the other main parties.
Labor support has risen by just 1 percentage point, while decided voter support for The Greens currently stands at 15 per cent, up from 13 per cent in February. On the other hand, support for an independent candidate, or other minor party, has risen since the February poll from 15 per cent in total to 18 per cent currently: This rise being most evident among those supporting an independent (16 per cent, compared to 13 per cent in the previous quarter).
The Government’s lead in voter support over the Labor opposition has narrowed significantly from 12 percentage points in February to just 5 points. Labor’s Rebecca White has opened up at 2pt lead as preferred premier over Jeremy Rockliff. The proportion of voters nominating Jeremy Rockliff stands at 38 per cent down from 44 per cent in February, compared to Rebecca White at 40 per cent, up by 4 points from 36% in February.
Mr Jamrozik added, “In looking at the latest results, it should be noted that EMRS conducted the May poll shortly after two members of the State Government had resigned to stand as independents in protest over its stance on the new Hobart AFL stadium, with the Liberals consequently being forced into minority government.
“Our polling indicates that the proposed AFL stadium is currently a key issue of concern for Tasmanians, and that the political ramifications of this will continue to be played out over the coming months.”
