“A Labor government will make the mainland pay for Marinus by transferring Tasmania’s stake in the project to the Victorian and Australian governments.”.

This statement is from Dean Winter, reported by David Killick in Saturday’s Mercury (28 June).

Apparently Tasmania will “save $200 million right now”, plus “hundreds of millions in debt that would otherwise be added to the credit card, and it will kick start a renewable energy boom in the north and north west”.

Winter has resumed his position of sitting on the fence, much like his ambiguous policy on the AFL stadium before last March’s election.

As he twists and turns, shifting position to see which side of the fence is thickest with voters, a collection of splinters is pricking his political arse, but probably not his conscience.

A Liberal media release on 15 March 2024, attributed to soon-to-be energy minister Nick Duigan stated:” It’s pleasing Labor has changed its position on Marinus, from claiming it’s ‘throwing good money after bad’ to now supporting the agreement being finalised.”

This was after Premier Rockliff wedged then Labor leader Rebecca White (and her energy side-kick Winter) into quietly signing off an agreement to transfer control of the Marinus cable build from TasNetworks to a new federally-funded Marinus Link Pty Ltd (MLPL). The Federal Government has a 49% stake and Victoria 33.3%. Tasmania, holding just 17.7% of the shares, is the only partner to have a sell option.

Is it this exit clause which Labor is hoping to invoke? If so, Dean Winter has a problem.

When the MLPL deal was inked in late 2023 it was reported that the agreement allowed Tasmania to sell its share of Marinus Link to the Commonwealth following completion of the project.

TasNetworks – the Tasmanian partner who put in the groundwork, the endlessly gushing promotion of the cables and tens of millions in sunk capital – could lose out badly.

Why they would want an exit path from Marinus after participating in the build has never been made public. Could it be that their borrowing capacity is heading for its limit?

Unless our Labor leader knows of subsequent changes to the deal, we still have to stump up our share of the construction cost – and there’s no guarantee that we would get any kind of return on that investment in what the other two partners might see as a fire sale.

Dean Winter was a guest on ABC Northern Tasmania’s Drive program (Tuesday, 1 July). When asked whether Marinus Link would have to be built before Tasmania could sell its share, he did not answer the question.

He stated: “Our position is that we support building Marinus. I think we’ve got an opportunity now in the state to have the next wave of energy development, and Marinus makes that happen. But we don’t need to be involved in paying for it. The Victorian and Federal governments are more than capable of building and paying for it. So why don’t we take up the $200m worth of capital that’s there and use it to help with our own budget here?”

He did not reveal whether he had approached either of Marinus Link’s other partners with that proposition.

Given that the Commonwealth and Victoria agree to a bailout, Dean Winter has conveniently forgotten the ancillary projects to which Tasmania is fully committed under the Project Marinus umbrella.

Firstly, there’s $950 million for the North West Transmission Developments as well as the yet-uncosted upgrade of the Waddamana to Palmerston transmission line – all funded with borrowings by TasNetworks. These lines are necessary to get privately-owned wind power to the Marinus Link converter station at Heybridge.

Then we have Hydro Tasmania’s rebuild of the Tarraleah power station – currently estimated to swallow $750 million. On top of that there is the Cethana pumped hydro scheme – a debt-funded component of Marinus cable #2 with a price tag today of $3.3 billion – another liability on Hydro’s balance sheet.

The cost of constructing and operating these energy assets will be added to your power bill. Earlier this week clandestine financial analysis of Project Marinus – ie: the cable and the NWTD – showed that residential customers would find $93 a year added to their power bills; small business would incur an increase of $772 p.a.; while the amount loaded onto the major industrials’ bill would be subject to negotiations The public will never learn the outcome of those dealings.

See ‘Release the Business Case on Marinus‘.

It is worth noting that the figures shown in the table use 2023 costings for the cable of $3.534 billion – a figure now estimated to be closer to $5 billion. Therefore households and small business should expect the transmission component of their power bills to rise even further.

Dean Winter reckons Marinus will unlock $25 billion in renewable projects in Tasmania, and using some kind of warped logic concludes “Marinus won’t just be good for Tasmania – it is essential for Australia’s energy future. This is a national project, and it’s only fair that the mainland pays for it.”

That conclusion may not be well received in Melbourne and Canberra.

Labor’s position of endorsing Marinus Link while not making a financial contribution to it seems like another splintered thought.

“However, Tasmanians should be aware that if this cable is built, our state will have ceded the right to control its own renewable energy future.

There are a dozen wind farm projects comprising around 1300 turbines at various stages of the approvals process in Tasmania, in addition to three large solar farms. While many of the proponents claim they can operate without Marinus, their viability depends on exporting power. And if Marinus goes ahead, each of these generation projects will then be cited as crucial to the cable’s viability.

For a state which depends on the $100 million annual dividend paid out by Hydro, it should be noted that these private power generators become a direct competitor to our publicly-owned enterprise.

We have seen with plans for the AFL stadium that both Liberal and Labor are happy to pass enabling legislation which bypasses the Tasmanian Planning Commission for what they deem “Projects of State Significance”.

Arguments and financial modelling which centre on the Marinus cables not being built are never presented to the public. Are such proposals discussed behind closed doors?

We, the public, only ever see the glowing media releases from energy ministers and statements from a self-interested Marinus Link Pty Ltd.

An update on MLPL’s website informs us that, yet again, the Final Investment Decision has been postponed: “MLPL’s three shareholders will now undertake their own detailed analysis, due diligence, and risk assessments before issuing a formal Final Investment Decision in July 2025.”

There will be no surprises when we learn that the board recommends the cable and associated works proceed.

Meanwhile, the caretaker Liberal Government has Treasury’s Whole-of-State Business Case tucked away in a drawer – where it’s been since it was delivered on May 16.

Treasurer Guy Barnett says “the Government will release the Whole-of-State Business case 30 days before our Final Investment Decision.”

Given the uncertain outcome of an unpopular election, it may not be Barnett’s team putting the government stamp on Project Marinus.

Treasury’s Whole-of-State Business Case and MLPL’s Final Investment Decision need to be released and circulated so that independent scrutiny can be applied by well-credentialed experts.

What we don’t want is these two critical reports dumped on a newly-constituted House of Assembly during its first days in office, with pressure exerted by proponents for a rushed verdict.

When consideration of Project Marinus comes before Parliament after the poll – the soonest would be August – it will be an entertaining sight to see Dean Winter pivot on the political fence should Labor be returned with sufficient numbers to cobble together either a government or a credible opposition.

Will his policy to pull Tasmanian money out of Marinus Link be that point of difference between him and Rockliff’s remnant Liberals which will sway voters enough to allow Labor to form a minority government? It would be a tricky task, with Winter pledging never to work with the Greens – who are decidedly anti-Marinus.

Electors who want to see our island dominated by wind turbines and transmission towers can vote for the LibLabs. Anyone with concerns about the industrialisation of our landscape and the billions of dollars in debt racked up by our energy GBEs should ask all other election candidates for their stance on Tasmania’s renewable future before they vote.

Only parties and independents who believe Project Marinus should be junked have Tasmania’s best interests at heart. That certainly rules out the Liberals.

Meanwhile, we await more policy spins by Winter as he offers “Tasmanians a fresh start and a vision for the future.”

Where have we heard that before?

Greg Pullen is a committee member of the Central Highlands No Turbine Action Group (NTAG) and has a keen interest in renewable energy transformation, in particular its benefits for Tasmania. He is a firm believer in the KISS Principle.

Tasmanian Times (TT) is a community-based news and current affairs service covering the island state of Tasmania. It exists to provide a diverse view of Tasmanian issues. TT creates and supports independent media content utilising the best of modern technologies and tried-and-true practices of public-interest journalism.

Support us in expanding our coverage and developing new content by and for Tasmanians. 

New initiatives on the way include:

  • a weekly podcast covering current affairs
  • a revamped website
  • a monthly cartoon competition
  • a user-friendly app for both Android and Apple devices
  • a weekly roundup of key stories