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Rosalie Woodruff’s Path to Premiership
Following a closely-contested state election, Tasmania finds itself with another hung parliament, opening the door for complex negotiations and a potential shift in power. While the Liberal Party, led by Jeremy Rockliff, has so far emerged with the most seats (14), they remain short of the 18 required for a majority.
This shortfall presents a unique opportunity for Tasmanian Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff to potentially form a minority government, a move that would be historic as Australia’s first Greens-led government.
The current seat distribution, (subject to confirmation) based on the latest Tasmanian Electoral Commission count, is:
• Liberal (Jeremy Rockliff): 14 seats
• Labor (Dean Winter): Currently just 1 seat short of their 10 (expected rise) and struggling with a historically low primary vote. Winter is trailing in his own seat.
• Greens (Rosalie Woodruff): Poised to hold 5 seats with a steady performance. Their strengthened crossbench presence boosts Woodruff’s influence post-election.
• Independents/crossbenchers: Projected to capture a higher % of the vote (≈4 seats), reinforcing their role as key power brokers.
For Rosalie Woodruff to become Premier, the most viable pathway involves securing confidence and supply from the Labor Party and commitments from enough independents to reach a working majority of 18 seats in the 35-seat House of Assembly.
The Numbers Game
As potential combination could be:
• Greens: 5-6 seats
• Independents: 4 seats (depending on individual alignment and negotiations)
• Labor: 9-10 seats (if they agree to provide confidence and supply.
If Labor, with its 10 seats, formally agrees to provide confidence and supply, and Woodruff can secure support from at least 3 independents plus the 5 Greens, this would bring the total to 18 members, enough to command the confidence of the House.
Dean Winter’s Pivotal Role
Labor leader Dean Winter’s decision is critical. While Labor’s primary vote was historically low (29.00% statewide, leading to 10 seats, up from 9 in the previous election), the scenario suggests Winter would not need to formally join a coalition government.
Instead, he could offer confidence and supply – meaning Labor would not vote down budgets or no-confidence motions.
This arrangement would allow Labor to retain its identity in opposition, regroup after a challenging election, and extract policy concessions from a Greens-led government, while simultaneously preventing a Liberal majority.
Parliamentary Precedent
This approach is not unprecedented in Westminster systems. Notable examples include:
• 1989 Tasmania: The ‘Labor-Green Accord’ saw the Greens backing a Labor minority government (Michael Field) despite Labor not being the largest party.
• 2010 Federal Australia: Julia Gillard formed a minority Labor government with the support of the Greens and independents.
• 2022 New South Wales: Independents engaged in public discussions about confidence and supply deals without formal coalition agreements.
Challenges and the Road Ahead
While constitutionally viable, the formation of a Greens-led government hinges on significant political maneuvering and trust-building.
The Governor’s role is not to favour the largest party, but to ensure someone can command confidence of the House.
Parliamentary convention 101 in Westminster systems: ‘The incumbent government has the first right to test confidence, but anyone who can show majority support may be commissioned to govern.’
Dean Winter’s willingness to step aside and offer support to Woodruff, extracting policy concessions, would be a major strategic decision for the Labor Party.
Furthermore, securing written commitments from all necessary independents, given their varied platforms and previous assurances, would require astute negotiation.
Should Rosalie Woodruff successfully forge such an alliance, it would not only represent a significant shift in Tasmanian politics but also set a globally significant precedent for Green parties. The coming days will be crucial as party leaders engage in discussions to determine Tasmania’s next government.
But it depends on Winter’s willingness to step aside and offer constructive support.
My open letter to Dean Winter, 21 July 2025
Dear Dean Winter,
Your refusal to work with the Greens and Independents, despite a clear majority of Tasmanians voting for progressive representation, reflects a troubling prioritisation of ego and business-aligned interests over democratic outcomes and community needs. You are voted in to serve us #1 holistically, not your ‘business crowd’ whom you chatted with first directly after the election.
By dismissing collaboration, you risk stalling meaningful progress on critical issues like the budget (that thing you were so worried about a minute ago & your rational for causing this election), housing, climate, health, and integrity in government etc.
Why not now work as a team with those same people who voted no confidence with/for you? They were good enough then!
It makes little sense to us, unless ego driven or corrupted by business priorities – many of which are raised by false liberal propaganda.
Tasmania cannot afford another term of gridlock while elected representatives capable of forming a stable majority are sidelined for the sake of personal pride or political purity.
Labor lost because of you, step aside if you are not willing to work as we elected.
Labor will likely move you on if not anyway…
Kelly Sims is an independent community advocate after being a councillor for Glenorchy Tasmania for over five years. In the 2022 local government elections she increased her vote and was again elected, however after missing three meetings due to being hospitalised on one occasion, and requiring leave to care for her dying mother, GCC opted to vacate her position. A formal request for leave, or to attend via video link, were refused by the mayor. With over 20 yrs experience as a community and business leader across various sectors she is an advocate for the community using evidence-based facts, best-practice ideals & genuine engagement.
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