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House of Assembly Limbos Under New Low Bar
As the contorted limbo dance of Tasmanian politics moves into another day, no-one knows quite how it will end up.
The bar for good governance has been lowered once again. Just a week after a what felt like a very important State Budget – are we barrelling toward the debt precipice or prepared to brake and maybe even turn? – the House of Assembly has turned into a battle for the Premier’s survival.
Instead of debating the future of the state, every Member in turn is opining on whether they have confidence in Jeremy Rockliff’s future in the top job.
You might not think it riveting listening, but demand was high enough to repeatedly crash the Parliament webcast server. The Tasmanian Parliament website is, in fact, not very user friendly overall but that’s a topic for another day.
The chaos started early yesterday when Labor Leader Dean Winter gave notice of a Motion of No-Confidence in the Premier. The Greens indicated they would support it. Several cross-benchers did too.
Apparently when one of the crossies told Winter of their support while passing in the corridors, he jumped like a startled pademelon. As if he hadn’t really expected the motion had any chance of getting up.
He’d waved a grenade, hoping perhaps for a nice bomb hoax and a bit of attention, and now someone else had pulled the pin.
So, here we are. At the start of the day there were another 18 speakers on the motion left to go, and pretty much all of them will use their allotted 20 minutes.
Why? Well, one of the potential outcomes of a successful motion is a House of Assembly election. Every sitting Member wants to be on the record as saying that they weren’t responsible for chaos, they were just acting in the best interests of Tasmania, and so on.
But let’s go through those outcomes.
Scenario 1 – Motion Fails, Rockliff Continues
The motion appears to have the numbers to pass. That said, the proof of the farce* is when the actual vote comes not what Members say in their speeches. This morning Peter Gutwein raised the possibility that Speaker Michelle O’Byrne might vote against Labor to save the Premier.
O’Byrne takes her role seriously. The tussle therefore is between her conscience as elder statesperson of the House that rolling a Premier in this fashion is not good karma, and her Labor solidarity to support the motion as put forward by her Leader Dean Winter. Labor’s party discipline is pretty strong so it would surprise if she veered from this. But nice try, Gutters.
Scenario 2 – Motion Succeeds, Rockliff Visits the Governor
If the motion succeeds, Jeremy Rockliff loses his mandate to govern. He must by convention visit the Governor and advise that he no longer has the confidence of the House.
The Governor will then recommend that he return to the House of Assembly and see if another Member has the confidence of the House.
This is where it gets a leeetle more complicated.
Scenario 3 – A New Liberal Premier
If another Liberal MHA comes forward, and if they can garner enough support from the crossbench, we could see a continuing Liberal government. As Rockliff’s deals with crossbenchers for confidence and supply would now be in the trash, the new Premier candidate would need to strike fresh deals.
There would appear to be no prospect of enough support for any Liberal candidate unless the stadium project was abandoned. But who knows, maybe someone could swing in with a written promise to firmly renegotiate.
Speculation as to who the leading Liberal might be is another matter. The most senior candidate is Michael Ferguson but, having been tarnished by the Spirits mishandling, he’s been chewing grass in the wilderness lately. Guy Barnett has plenty of experience but is not exactly putting himself about.
Eric Abetz gives off want-top-job airs but surely the state Liberals have learned from the Dutton dumpster-fire that it’s tough to rebrand a known abrasive persona. Felix the plumber believes he can do anything but he’s largely alone in that. Jacquie Petrusma gets mentioned in despatches but apparently has health issues. Roger Jaensch is a mild-mannered do nothing who could fall in, but why.
There is a stream of Liberal thought that going to an election would be a better option as they can try to blame Dean Winter for sowing mayhem. They may even achieve or be closer to majority government.
Scenario 4 – A Labor Premier
Labor would need to cobble together enough support. It would appear unlikely based on recent rhetoric to want to govern with the support of the Greens, who in any case would demand the stadium be cut whereas Jobsworth Winter seems wedded to the idea.
A peculiar though spectacularly improbable outcome would be Winter governing with Liberal support. Winter might seize any old chance to grab power, while the Liberals might let him sip from a poisoned chalice hoping to demonstrate that Labor can’t govern. Curious thought experiment this, but as likely as a thylacine strolling across Parliament lawns in the lunch break.
Scenario 5 – A House of Assembly Election
If no-one can command support of the House of Assembly, the outgoing Premier will be forced to return to the Governor and advise that an election should be called to resolve the impasse.
Although this is one of the strongest possibilities – see Dean Winter’s statement as of 10:36 this morning – it’s the one no-one wants.
None of the current Assembly will come out of this meltdown smelling like Mt Field in spring. The major parties have bare cupboards after punishing Federal and LegCo campaigns and their volunteer bases are exhausted. No-one has a bunch of candidates ready.
The campaigns will be awful it’s-their-fault jobbies totally bereft of ideas and vision.
A new election could produce somewhat wild results and leave us with a Parliament looking quite unrecognisable.
It feels like someone has invoked that old but subtle curse: may you live in interesting times.
These early days of winter, if not yet Winter, are indeed interesting.
* farce
- noun A secular dramatic composition of a ludicrous or satirical character; low comedy.
- noun Ridiculous parade; absurd pageantry; foolish show.
- noun A ridiculous sham.
- To stuff; cram.
- Specifically In cookery, to stuff, as a pudding, fowl, or roast, with various meats, oysters, bread, or other ingredients, variously flavored or spiced; fill with stuffing.
Media release – Dean Winter MP, Labor Leader, 5 June 2025
Statement from Dean Winter
The only person forcing Tasmania to an early election is Jeremy Rockliff.
If he is granted an election, Labor is ready to go because we strongly believe Tasmania needs change.
The Premier is calling his second early election in 16 months.
The deals he struck with the cross bench have collapsed after he announced plans to sell Tasmanian assets, stuffed the Spirits and broke the budget.
He has lost the support of Tasmanians too.
At the last election, he promised stability. He’s delivered anything but.
I reaffirm Labor’s commitment that we will not do a deal with or form government with the Greens.
Alan Whykes is Chief Editor of Tasmanian Times.
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