Jeremy Rockliff, our caretaker premier, and the politician who called an early election, is now trying to force the caretaker Labor opposition to be complicit in the handover of Marinus Link Pty Ltd to the Federal and Victorian Governments.

Rockliff stated yesterday, March 12: ”… we must confirm our intention to sign the Agreement by the end of the week to ensure procurement conditions.”

Having attempted the blame-game to forced independents Tucker and Alexander to submit to the Liberal agenda, he’s now pulling the ‘now or never’ trick to have Labor commit to a deal, about which, one can safely assume, they know nothing.

Had the election not been called, what would MLC Ruth Forrest’s Joint Select Committee on Energy Matters in Tasmania have to say about this back-room deal with the Feds?

Indeed, what would John Tucker make of Rockliff’s undertaking to have Marinus debated in Parliament?

There’s no doubt proroguing Parliament has cleared the decks of many difficult issues for the former Liberal Government – and one can speculate whether the former Energy Minister and Premier knew that the restructure of Marinus Link Pty Ltd would be scheduled during the election run-up.

TasNetworks has not made public any part of the deal as they blithely hand over Marinus Link to the Federal Government, but at the moment there are some definite infrastructure commitments attached to the Commonwealth bailout. All require billions in debt to be accrued by our government business enterprises. Just how that will sit on their balance sheets has not been determined, but there’s no doubt consumers will ultimately repay the loans.

Ruth Forrest has been forthright in her condemnation of the reckless pork-barrelling during the election campaign: “There is no magic money tree and Liberals and Labor refuse to come clean with voters”, she said.

There are three big spends linked to the Marinus Project which make the Liberal’s $20 million handouts to community groups just “small beer”.

First, the North West Transmission Developments will be built to move privately-owned wind power from the north-west to the Marinus Link dispatch facility at Heybridge. Although TasNetworks’ latest ‘Revised Proposal 2024-2029’ report indicates this project will be built in two stages, it still has a $1 billion price tag.

Second, there is the upgrade – or actual duplication – of the Tarraleah power station. This is another billion-dollar infrastructure investment as part of the Battery of the Nation strategy, loudly spruiked by former Energy Minister Guy Barnett and enthusiastically echoed by Federal Minister Chris Bowen.

How Canberra views the additional 100MW from this new facility being used under the Tweedledum/Tweedledee ‘Tasmania First’ energy policy, rather than firming up the NEM, can only be speculated, as no-one from either party has enunciated just how keeping the power in-house will fit with the terms of the concessional loans extended by the Commonwealth.

And thirdly, there is the Cethana pumped hydro scheme – today estimated to cost $3.3 billion, and a crucial piece of the Marinus/Battery of the Nation jigsaw.

Call them ‘the Laborials’ or ‘Tweedledum and Tweedledee’ – what we have is party political machines engaged in popularist one-upmanship with scant regard to the realities of their proposals.

Both Liberal and Labor promise to rewrite Hydro Tasmania’s charter, somehow delivering cheaper power prices to Tasmanian households and businesses while still participating in the National Electricity Market. Or do they think that we can de-link from mainland price structures, but still export high value power into the market when it suits, and then import ultra-cheap Victorian power each evening?

For Labor, it’s a similar ‘two-bob-each-way’ proposition to their stadium policy: They support a state footy team, but without the controversial stadium condition, despite the AFL – who hold all the cards – saying it’s not on. Likewise, they will insulate Tasmania from national energy price rises while still wanting to play in the market.

Speaking on ABC Mornings on Monday February 19, respected economist Saul Eslake – a former member of Hydro Tasmania’s board –  was nearly breathless in his condemnation of the ‘dumb policy’ of both Liberal and Labor in expecting Hydro to cut its profits to keep local power prices down. “The fact that it’s popular doesn’t make it smart, or that it’s sensible or in Tasmania’s long-term interests.”

He explained (as if it needed explaining) that in the four years to 2023 Hydro Tasmania had generated $705 million in profits. $675 million of this was paid as a dividend to Treasury.

“Thirteen per cent of Hydro power is traded over Basslink,” Eslake stated, pointing out that cheap imports meet the shortfall in local demand, significantly bolstering Hydro’s bottom line.

He also noted that the Liberals’ budget has projected revenue of $565 million from Hydro over the four-year forward estimates. It does not require the skills of an economist to question where this shortfall might come from once Hydro’s margin has been cut to supply power to the people.

(A cynic might suggest that Labor will save this by not building the Macquarie Point stadium).

While Labor’s energy guru Dean Winter points the finger at the mess 10 years of Liberal policy has left in the energy sector, he’d be hard pressed to find an instance where his party has been in anything but lock-step with his political opponents.

Even his ‘Tasmania First’ manifesto is not original. A look back to 2018 will see that former Premier Will Hodgman declared: “The Tasmania First energy policy will be one of the centrepieces of the second majority Hodgman Liberal Government. The Tasmania First policy is about two things – delivering reliable power at the lowest possible price and supporting Tasmanian jobs.”

To add some context, he went on to say: “This is another mess left by Labor that we are cleaning up… The Government is committed to break away from mainland electricity contract pricing by July 2021.”

Of course, his government, and those of his two successors, were unable to implement these election promises. Labor is unlikely to be any more successful.

Why? The ability to unravel such an enmeshed arrangement as the NEM is way out of Tasmania’s league as the smallest player in the game.

Dean Winter was also on Leon Compton’s Mornings program last month, but seemed unclear on how the new look Hydro would follow his quasi-biblical instruction ‘to go out and create more electricity’. He seemed equally uncertain, given that he wants to rewrite Hydro’s charter, on how they simultaneously supply the mainland which ‘wants our hydro and wind energy resource’ while at the same time supplying increasing domestic demand at cheap rates.

However, he was adamant that Marinus Link should go ahead. Perhaps he’ll be the Labor candidate who’ll respond to Rockliff’s ‘sign on the dotted line’ ultimatum.

So how is it that both the Liberal and Labor parties perceive that actually building a second white elephant like Marinus (the first being Basslink) will somehow make it easier for this state to abandon the restrictions that our membership of the National Electricity Market imposes?

Caretaker Premier Rockliff may claim the green light on Marinus “is a very good outcome for Tasmania securing over $1.3 billion in economic activity and 1,400 jobs in the state.”

However, those claims have never been independently verified, and no-one is talking of the ‘final investment decision’ which has been repeatedly touted as scheduled for December this year.

Greg Pullen is a committee member of the Central Highlands No Turbine Action Group (NTAG) and has a keen interest in renewable energy transformation, in particular its benefits for Tasmania. He is a firm believer in the KISS Principle.