Latest EMRS State Voting Poll

Media release – Enterprise Marketing & Research Services, 30 November 2023

The Liberal Government Widens Lead among Tasmanian Voters

EMRS’ November poll of 1,000 Tasmanian adults reveals that voter support for the Tasmanian Liberal Party has remained stable following the August 2023 poll; however, support for the Labor Party has slipped by 3 percentage points, widening the gap between the major parties.

The latest poll was conducted between the 20th and 27th of November 2023 and showed a shift in voter support away from Labor to an independent candidate.

EMRS’ Managing Director, Paul Jamrozik, highlighted this trend, stating, “While support for the Liberal party has remained stable, what’s notable is the switch in support from Labor.

We’ve been watching the level of support for an independent candidate increase over time, and this poll reflects their strongest position yet.”

Support for the Government among decided voters currently stands at 39 per cent, a marginal 1-point increase from 38 per cent in August and remains below the 42 per cent high the party experienced in February this year. Labor support now stands at 29 per cent, representing a 3-point decrease from 32 per cent in August, while support for an independent candidate and other minor parties increased 3-points in November to 19 per cent.

Mr Jamrozik said, “The biggest issues highlighted by voters in the November poll are healthcare and the cost of living, rather than the AFL stadium. These are the hot topics candidates should focus on to show they are in touch with what keeps Tasmanians up at night.”

Regarding the personal rating between the two major party leaders, Jeremy Rockliff for the Liberals remains stable at 42 per cent, although his lead has increased by 7-points over Labor’s Rebecca White as preferred premier. Support for Rebecca White has declined from 39 per cent in August to 35 per cent in the November poll. This decline is due to an increase in voters who are unsure or have no preference, jumping from 18 per cent in August to 23 per cent in November.

“The surge in voter support for an independent or other minor party, at the expense of Labor, is reflected in the decline in personal support for Labor Party leader, Rebecca White.

While this may seem like good news for the Liberal Party, let’s not forget that their gains have been marginal over time since a large decrease in support in May. Support for an independent candidate has continued to grow over time, and we are now seeing that impact on the two major parties.”