CIS: Young Voters Deserting the Right

Report – Centre for Independent Studies, 29 June 2023

Generation left: young voters deserting the right

This report is the first in a series of CIS research papers focusing on intergenerational political attitudes and electoral behaviour. This report investigates the extent to which age is a factor in determining a first preference vote for Australia’s major centre-right political parties; the ex ante coalition between the Liberal Party of Australia and the National Party of Australia — the Coalition.

The report presents estimates of the ‘election adjusted’ primary vote for the Coalition parties from the Australian Election Study. These election-adjusted primary votes reflect the difference between a generation’s primary vote for the Coalition, at a given age, and the average primary vote for the Coalition among the overall electorate in elections held in 1966, 1969, 1980 and from 1987 to 2022.

These estimates suggest strong — and intergenerationally diverse — age effects in Australian electoral behaviour.

For the post-war generations born prior to 1996, support for the Coalition was considerably lower compared to the average voter in their late teens and early 20s; with support for the Coalition increasing thereafter. More specifically:

• Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) had a primary vote 5 percentage points lower than the average voter in elections held when they were in their late teens and early 20s but moved in favour of the Coalition by just over 1 percentage point per electoral cycle, on average. By their mid70s, Boomers were 15.2 percentage points more inclined to vote for the Coalition compared to the average voter.
• Generation X (born 1965 to 1980) were just under 10 percentage points less likely to vote for the Coalition in their early elections (-9.4 percentage points) relative to the average. This generation moved towards the Coalition at a slightly slower rate than Baby Boomers up until their mid-50s. At the last election Generation X were 2.2 percentage points more inclined to vote for the Coalition than the average voter.

Beginning in their early 50s, both Boomers and Generation X became more likely to vote for the Coalition compared to the average voter (on average). The AES data currently available strongly suggests the voting patterns observed for Baby Boomers and Generation X are unlikely to be true for Australian voters born after 1980.

• Millennials (born 1981 to 1995) were 12.7 percentage points less inclined to vote for the Coalition in their early elections moving towards the Coalition at a rate of 0.6 percentage points per electoral cycle. Given their low initial support for the Coalition, Millennials remain 8 percentage points less likely to vote for the Coalition in their early 40s.

Although the youngest generation of current voters, Generation Z (born 1996 to 2009) have cast their vote in only three federal elections, their electoral behaviour stands out as dramatically different to the generations that preceded them — even when compared to Millennials.

• Support for the Coalition among Generation Z in their earliest elections has been significantly lower than any generation of the post-war era, with an election adjusted primary vote of -14.4 percentage points — lower than that for Millennials (in absolute terms) at a similar age. In contrast to earlier generations, Generation Z has moved further away from the Coalition at just under 5 percentage points per electoral cycle. They are, in their mid-20s, 25.3 percentage points less likely to vote for the Coalition than the average voter.

Having uncovered strong — and intergenerationally diverse — age effects in electoral behaviour, this report uses a simulation methodology to assess the extent to which these age effects are politically significant within the context of generational change.

Despite a modest (projected) increase in the average age of the electorate from 47.3 in 2022 to 48.7 by 2040, this period will see considerable change in its generational composition. Although the ‘pro-Coalition’ generations (mostly Baby Boomers and Generation X) were a majority of voters at the last election (56.2 per cent), by 2040 they will make up less than a third (30.2 per cent).

The younger generations (Millennials and Generation Z) made up 43.8 per cent of voters in 2022. With the addition of the post-Generation Z electorate, voters born after 1980 are set to make up just under 69.8 per cent of voters by 2040.

Given Millennials’ modest inclination towards the Coalition — and Generation Z’s present aversion to it — changing generational demography could have politically important ramifications if these generational voting behaviours continue into the future.

The simulation method developed in this report suggests generational change could see the Coalition’s Average Primary Vote across lower 2 house electorates fall by 9.1 percentage points over the course of the next six electoral cycles. This reduction in primary vote is simulated to result in a 35-seat reduction in Coalition seats in the House of Representatives by 2040.

Read the full report here: https://www.cis.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/RR-46-Generation-Left.pdf.