Article
On Population and Migration …
Media release – Australian Bureau of Statistics, 15 June 2023
1.9% population growth driven by overseas migration
Source: National, state and territory population, December 2022.
Australia’s population grew by 1.9 per cent in 2022, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Beidar Cho, ABS head of Demography, said: “Our population at 31 December 2022 is 26.3 million people, after we recorded an increase of 496,800 people over the year. This is a growth rate of 1.9 per cent, the highest seen since 2008.”
There were 619,600 overseas migration arrivals and 232,600 departures, resulting in Australia’s population growing by 387,000 people from overseas migration.
“Recovery of international student arrivals is driving net overseas migration to historic highs, while departures are lagging behind levels typically seen over the past decade. This pattern is expected to continue as international students return following the reopening of international borders, however there are fewer students ready to depart because very few arrived during the pandemic” Ms Cho said.
Natural increase was 109,800 people, a decrease of 23.4 per cent from the previous year. There were 300,700 births and 190,900 deaths registered during this time, with deaths increasing 11.1 per cent and births decreasing 4.6 per cent. COVID-19 mortality was the main contributor to an increased number of deaths and lower natural increase in 2022.
| Population at 31 Dec 2022 (‘000) | Change over previous year (‘000) | Change over previous year (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 8238.8 | 138.0 | 1.7 |
| Victoria | 6704.3 | 137.7 | 2.1 |
| Queensland | 5378.3 | 116.6 | 2.2 |
| South Australia | 1834.3 | 28.5 | 1.6 |
| Western Australia | 2825.2 | 62.7 | 2.3 |
| Tasmania | 571.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| Northern Territory | 250.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 460.9 | 8.3 | 1.8 |
| Australia (a) | 26268.4 | 496.8 | 1.9 |
(a) Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island.
Editor’s note: Further data on migration was also released yesterday. It’s not in a format that is ‘friendly’ to republishing on TT so we suggest you go look at it here: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/dec-2022.
Media release – Shane Broad MP, Shadow Treasurer, 15 June 2023
People leaving Tasmania in droves
In yet more worrying economic news under the minority Liberal government, new ABS data reveals people are leaving Tasmania for the mainland in record numbers.
In the most recent quarter, 704 more people left Tasmania for the mainland than the number that moved here.
This was the worst quarterly result since 1999 and shows Tasmanians are voting with their feet about the direction of Tasmania under Jeremy Rockliff and his minority Liberal government.
Over the past six quarters, 1,345 more people have moved interstate than have arrived, and even overseas migration could not prevent Tasmania having the weakest population growth in the nation at just 0.5% – well behind national growth of 1.9%.
More and more indicators are pointing to the fact that Jeremy Rockliff and his minority Liberal government’s wrong priorities are jeopardising Tasmania’s economic future. Sadly, it appears plenty of Tasmanians agree and are making the tough decision to leave our state for the mainland.
Twitter comment – Dr Lisa Denny, 15 June 2023
— untitled —
Today’s population data for Tasmania provides even more evidence for why we need a State Demographer to provide robust population projections, research and strategic policy advice across key services. The popular narrative is DOA.
Today’s data reveals that Tasmania’s population growth rate has declined to 0.5%, its lowest level since 2015. While it could be interpreted as ‘back to the future’ the population change patterns suggest a ‘new normal’.
Tasmania has reversed 7 years of net interstate migration gains to record a loss of 941 people. Interstate arrivals during 2022 were 20% lower than pre-pandemic times and also less than in 2016. While departures are lower than pre-pandemic period, they remain higher than in 2016.
Tasmania also recorded is second ever quarter of natural decline (more deaths than births) due to increased deaths associated with covid mortality and fewer births. Natural increase for the year was the lowest on record.
Overseas migration was the only component of population change that contributed to growth. NOM for 2022 was the second highest on record, which is expected and unsurprising given the return of international students (and that they haven’t returned home since borders reopened).
It is likely that housing availability/affordability is substantially contributing to the decline in interstate arrivals. This has concerning implications given severe skill shortages in key service delivery areas such as health and education as well as housing construction.
Insecure housing can also contribute to people delaying having children (or how many they have), which can have long-lasting effects on the birth rate.
This turnaround in population change provides affirms the need for a State Demographer to ensure decisions relating to key service provision and infrastructure investment are informed by the needs of the population, not just in terms of the size/growth rate but its composition