Vote Vote, Who’s There?

Who you voted for is not necessarily who you are going to get after this state election.

Labor’s defeated Rebecca White and the Greens’ Cassy O’Connor are both tipped to vacate their seats during the next parliament. Liberal Adam Brooks may be forced out by the growing stench of the catfishing scandal, or indeed by a conviction.

White will be replaced as leader and not expected to return from maternity, exploring new opportunities having led her party twice to defeat. A rare honour. David O’Byrne has been waiting in the wings for some time and will not miss this opportunity.

The drums of renewal have been beating for O’Connor within her party, and insiders say she’s ready for a new challenge or at least a rest from her high-energy, high-conviction style of politics. She can leave on a high after having rebuilt the Green vote this election and putting them within a decent shot of seats in Bass and Lyons next time around.

Their departures will continue the recent revolving door of departing MPs being replaced by recount candidates. House of Assembly MPs McKim, Booth, Green, Bacon, Groom, Hodgman, Brooks, Rylah and Hidding have all retired mid-stride during the last two terms of the Tasmanian Parliament.

The trend raises questions about the attractiveness of a career as a Tasmanian state MP, and whether the job anymore can potentially attract our brightest and best.

The implication is a lowering of standards for our elected representatives as the more capable seek purpose and reward elsewhere.

Perhaps it’s also a generational thing. With so many lifestyle choices on offer, the ‘call to service’ of public office sounds a little hollow quite a bit sooner than it once used to. Politicians – of a generation who grew up without social media – are subjected to its trial-by-blowtorch daily, with predictable effects on their wellbeing and family life.

O’Connor can claim being surprised by the election being called, and being denied an orderly exit. But a vote for her this election was effectively a vote for Vica Bayley, the Greens’ number two candidate in Clark. She made sure to have him on the podium behind her on Saturday night, when she spoke for longer than the vanquished White and the victorious Premier Gutwein combined. At times the speech sounded more like a valedictory than an election comment summary.

And White’s fate as leader will come as no surprise, nor will her decision later to quit politics in favour of her young and growing family. She has been in Parliament for 11 years now, the last four as leader. With Labor’s base now stuck well under 30 percent, they are a long way from the much-coveted level of support that would deliver the ‘majority government’ they spoke about at every press conference of the campaign.

Two election wallopings show White’s leadership is clearly unable to deliver that. Her resignation from Parliament would safely lead to the election of Janet Lambert on a recount, and provide some more clear air for the party as it reshapes its direction.

Adam Brooks is an all-singing, rootin-tootin’ sideshow in his own right. The original questions were over his somewhat surprise return as a candidate, given that he had resigned in the wake of a harshly critical Integrity Commission report into his use of his mining service company email in 2019. Then there were the charges laid by Tasmania Police regarding firearms storage offences. Then his philandering alter ego Terry Brooks hit the stage, too late in the campaign perhaps to significantly influence the Braddon vote.

Liberal leader Peter Gutwein has been loathe to carpet Brooks. The reasons probably are probably a north-western salmagundi of simple loyalty, party need for his significant financial clout, the possibility of ‘fresh’ ministerial talent, and a reluctance to have the first defining moment of the newly-recrowned Liberal government be a spectacular resignation. One way or another, most of us are finding it difficult to image that Adam/Terry will still be around come the next election.

Thus we could be looking at three new members of the House of Assembly within a year of an election that was a year early anyway. It continues to show that who you vote for in Tasmania is not necessarily who you get.

Alan Whykes is Chief Editor of Tasmanian Times.