After what seemed like a long 11 days since the polls closed on Saturday 1 May, the counting of votes finally returned a result late last night.
Whilst the government of Peter Gutwein has been returned, with a majority of 13 seats in the 25-member House of Assembly, Tasmanian democracy continue to suffer from the small size of the House.
It is well known that the downsizing of the 7-member electorates to 5 members each in 1998, and thus an overall reduction in seats from 35 to 25, was intended to get rid of the Tasmanian Greens.
That hasn’t happened. What has happened though is a reduction in the talent pool available for governments, for oppositions, and for carrying on the work of the parliament.
Calculations by analyst Andrew Jones on the voting patterns at this state election suggest that had there been 35 members, the fall would most likely have been 18 Liberal (a majority), 11 Labor, 3 Green (extra seat in Lyons) and 3 independents (Sue Hickey, Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland).
Imagine if Peter Gutwein was able to look over his shoulder and pick his ministers from a team of 18, not just 13. Consider the fieldwork, research and policy ground that Labor could cover with an 11-person opposition. Muse, if you will, what lively questions and critiques might come from a lively crossbench of 6 including strong voices like Hickey, Johnston and Garland.
The 25-seat House of Assembly has robbed us of better governance. The HA Select Committee on the House of Assembly Restoration Bill reported in 2020 on poorer representation, “in that there are now too few Members, who are not part of the Executive, to effectively represent their constituencies.”
The committee also found that the much smaller government backbench has resulted in limited competition for ministerial positions and challenges replacing ministerial vacancies. A corollary of the smaller parliament has been the proliferation of ministerial advisers, unaccountable to the parliament.
Regarding financial implications of 35 members, the committee found that “the cost to democracy and good governance of not having an effective parliament to undertake its functions on behalf of the Tasmanian people, is significantly greater than the monetary cost of restoring the House of Assembly.”
Tasmanian Times congratulates the Gutwein team on their victory, and urges them to actually carry through on their promise to ‘secure Tasmania’s future’. Mostly their promises were microwaved prior announcements, motherhood statements about keeping Tasmanians safe, and micro-pork strategically dropped into every electorate for particular facilities and projects.
May they actually deliver. Those of us with viable memories recall all kinds of 2018 pledges that were not actually implemented. This time around Tasmanian Times has downloaded every single policy that was on the Tasmanian Liberal website on election day, and intends to monitor progress against same.
If they Liberals are serious about securing our (democratic) future, they must work with the rest of the parliament to bring on the restoration to 35 seats before the next elections are due in 2025.
The New Cabinet
In terms of the new cabinet, Peter Gutwein has some unique problems. The only ‘new’ team member appears to be Madeleine Ogilvie, she of the colourful Labor-independent-now Liberal trajectory in the Lower House. A lawyer by trade, she would appear to have the necessary competence for a ministry. And recent warnings by Labor Leader Rebecca White hint that she will create a ruckus if she doesn’t get one.
Usual suspects Rocklifff, Ferguson, Barnett, Jaensch, Courtney and Archer will certainly be back. There are question marks over Sports & Racing Minister Jane Howlett, who was so off the pace on a lot of sporting matters – like the AFL team bid – that they defaulted to the Premier himself. Howlett was the only Member of the Legislative Council in the previous Gutwein cabinet, but this time the Premier might consider the composed Jo Palmer who now has a year under her belt. At a pinch the new member for Windermere Nick Duigan could be under consideration later in the term once he has found his feet.
Similarly Mark Shelton (Minister for Police, Fire and Emergency Management, Minister for Local Government) has a very undistinguished record and it is difficult to see him coping effectively with multiple ministries outside of his comfort zone.
Franklin member Nic Street might come under consideration for a promotion, even in front of his colleague Jacquie Petrusma who after 3 terms on the benches has failed to impress. He would have been neck and neck with newbie Felix Ellis, but as of writing Ellis appears to have been replaced in Braddon by Adam Brooks.
Surely Gutwein will not be tempted to put Brooks in cabinet? A lightning rod for scandal and ridicule, his presence might be a boon for the party coffers and indeed votes but he is a liability in the House of Assembly. Indeed, his various misadventures could conceivably lead to a resignation at some stage; Ellis might as well not toss out his business cards just yet.
And as for John Tucker, member for Lyons, most seen during the campaign gaping vacantly into the distance behind Gutwein in photo ops? You’d barely back the man to sort a bag of M&Ms into alphabetical order.
These are the 13 individuals in whom we our governance rests for the next four years. We’re craving the breadth and depth of a 35-member House of Assembly already.
Likely Results:
Braddon – Jeremy Rockliff, Roger Jaensch, Adam Brooks (Liberal); Shane Broad, Anita Dow (Labor)
Bass – Peter Gutwein, Michael Ferguson, Sarah Courtney (Liberal); Janie Finlay, Michelle O’Byrne (Labor)
Lyons – Guy Barnett, Mark Shelton, John Tucker (Liberal); Rebecca White, Jen Butler (Labor)
Clark – Elise Archer, Madeleine Ogilvie (Liberal); Cassy O’Connor (Greens); Ella Haddad (Labor); Kristie Johnston (independent)
Franklin – Jacquie Petrusma, Nic Street (Liberal); David O’Byrne, Dean Winter (Labor); Rosalie Woodruff (Greens)
Resources:
Tasmanian Electoral Commission – 2021 State Election
Tomorrow we’ll look at the rest of the parliament.
Alan Whykes is Chief Editor of Tasmanian Times.
