What a difference a year makes.

Through 2015, the confidence of Tasmanian farmers has been at record highs, as measured by Rabobank.

You may recall that in March Tasmanian farmer sentiment was at its highest level since the bank’s confidence survey began 14 years earlier. The 62 per cent optimism level was driven by the lower $A, strong commodity prices and a willingness by farmers to invest.

The trend continued in the June and September surveys, the latest just a month or so ago, when Rabobank reported that nearly half the state’s farmers were looking to increase on-farm investment; they had the most positive outlook for farmers anywhere in the country. Nearly all expected agricultural conditions to improve or remain stable.

I wonder what they would be saying now. I am detecting many of our farmer members are doing it tough and they do not look forward to the season ahead.

Interest rates may still be low, the $A may still be low, but growing conditions are very challenging; the availability of feed for livestock is also challenging.

To all intents and purposes we had no rain in the winter. Soils and sub-soils are parched. Certainly there are parts of the state that are looking green and lush but the growth is not there.
What am I hearing?

Many farmers were unable to plant poppies this year; dairy farmers up and down the state say they are looking for hay and silage; growers of vegetables and potatoes are handing in their contracts to Simplot and McCain because they do not want to over commit themselves in the light of poor rainfall and the apparent certainty that we are in for a long, hot summer; some cereal growers in the midlands say they will cut their crop for hay.

Those are all omens for a less than perfect end to a year that was supposed to promise so much.

Unfortunately, this all means added stress on family farming businesses and we can expect to see a lot more farmers seeking financial and emotional counseling as the economic squeeze tightens.
Yet only a matter of weeks ago, people were still upbeat, with the vast majority expecting business performance to either improve or remain stable.

There is no doubt that, given water, a favourable dollar, low interest rates and good growing conditions the world can be our oyster and those fortunate enough to be able to irrigate should remain optimistic, but for those without secure water supplies, or unable to afford irrigation, this is going to be a tough period.

To add to our concerns will be the ever-present threat of wild fires.

THIS ARTICLE FIRST APPEARED IN THE TAS COUNTRY ON 30TH OCTOBER 2015
TFGA president Wayne Johnston