Campbell Newman has lost his seat, the LNP cannot win enough seats to form government in their own right and a key independent, Peter Wellington, likely to be one of three holding the balance of power has said that he would not support a LNP minority government. If the Labor Party don’t win a majority in their own right – which on current counting is the most likely outcome – Labor will be in a position to form a minority government.
• William Bowes, Poll Bludger at Crikey What happened?“The real key to the surprise is that Labor’s share of minor party and independent preferences went from 27% to 45%, the LNP’s went from 22% to 15%, and the exhaustion rate fell from 51% to 39% … Applying those preference flows to the current primary vote totals, it’s Labor and not the LNP that comes out 52-48 ahead, contrary to what all three of the aforementioned polls said. If the pollsters had been operating on accurate assumptions concerning preferences, they would have come out at 51-49 to Labor.”
• Chris Uhlman, ABC News, LNP rout in Queensland ‘catastrophic’ and leaves Tony Abbott terminally wounded, federal Coalition MPs say “The rout of the Liberal National Party in the Queensland election is being described as ‘catastrophic’ by federal Coalition MPs, with some claiming the Prime Minister is now terminally wounded. ‘All we are talking about now is the timing and method of execution,’ one Queensland MP said.”
• Courier Mail editorial “For the new regime, whoever that may be, the lessons are clear. Queenslanders want a more moderate style of leadership. They want a more conservative reform agenda. And clearly, selling or leasing the state’s assets are off the table. Greater consultation and consensus with key stakeholders is mandatory.
