The Prime Minister set off on an overseas trip earlier this week for meetings with the heads of three Asian states. He needn’t worry about feeling lonely – there are 600 business people in his entourage, plus traveling media, spin doctors and hangers-on.
And they’ve all been hard at work, with some significant announcements being made including a freshly signed free trade agreement with Japan. This followed hot on the heels of the recently announced FTA with South Korea.
If you listen to the spin from Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Trade and Investment Minister Andrew Robb, we’re all going to be much better off because of cheaper Japanese and South Korean cars for Australian consumers and a huge boost in sales of Australian beef in Asia.
However, some of us watching from the sidelines have looked into the little detail that is yet available – and we can’t help but notice that all is not as the officials would have us believe, In fact, under these agreements, most Australian commodities trying to sell in these markets will face significant tariffs for many years; and most of the decreases announced in present tariffs are minimal and will take sometime decades to come to fruition.
For example, under the Japanese agreement, tariffs on frozen beef will drop from the current level of 38.5 per cent to 30.5 per cent in the first year, winding down to 19.5 per cent – in 15 years’ time. Tariffs on fresh beef will be cut from 38.5 per cent to 23.5 per cent over the same time. Hope you’re not holding your breath waiting to see some trade benefits.
There’s an old saying in journalism: don’t let the facts interfere with a good story. Well, Australian farmers are not designed in the same shape as journos and spin doctors; and they always dig around to find the truth. So what do they think about these free trade agreements?
It is fair to say they are not impressed.
The classic response is from rice growers. When Australian rice growers can enter the Asian markets without being priced out of competition by government duties, then we will know that we have true free trade agreements and that we are operating on the proverbial level playing field.
Australian rice never got a look in; and the Ricegrowers’ Association of Australia quite rightly claimed that the industry was being punished, that the much touted ‘Asian century’ was all smoke and mirrors.
The Australian Dairy Industry Council calculated that it was possible for Australian dairy exporters to gain $4.7 million in the first year of the Japanese FTA, up to $11.6 million by 2031 out of a total export market of $511 million. That’s an increase of around 2% over the next 17 years – 2% in total, not 2% every year.
Dairy farmers had pinned their hopes on improved market access for cheese products; but they were left out in the cold. Tariffs will stay at 29.8 per cent. We have lost the opportunity to have $60 million in tariffs on cheese dropped. It all stays the same.
The National Farmers’ Federation said the Japanese agreement fell short of expectations – a rather mild assessment in my view.
“The ultimate objective with any trade agreement is to obtain tangible benefits to farmers.
Agreements must be comprehensive. That means, no sector carve-outs and elimination of tariffs. The Japanese agreement falls short of the mark on a number of fronts in this regard,” NFF president Brent Finlay said.
Yet, as I said at the outset, if you were taken in by the spin from Messrs Abbott and Robb you would have thought we were at the dawn of a new age. No way.
Meanwhile, guess who gets free access to most Australian commodity markets with no quotas, no tariffs? Answer: the rest of the world.
Level playing field? You must be joking.
TFGA CEO Jan Davis’ Tasmanian Country column today