Economy
Will’s Stat Dec as Lara claims LibLab power bid … and Lara becomes Ms 18 per cent
Tasmania’s Opposition Leader, Will Hodgman, has produced a statutory declaration to deny claims that the Liberals tried to strike a deal with Labor after the 2010 state election.
Premier Lara Giddings told Parliament Mr Hodgman’s chief of staff, Don Morris, rang then-premier David Bartlett’s chief of staff, Terry Field, to ask whether Labor was prepared to support a minority Liberal government.
“[He] put the question: ‘Would the Labor Party be prepared to support a Liberal minority government for a reasonable period of time?’,” Ms Giddings said.
The claim sparked fury from the Liberal side of the chamber.
Deputy Opposition Leader Jeremy Rockliff pleaded with Speaker Michael Polley to silence the Premier.
“She is not telling the truth,” he told Parliament.
The Premier denied Liberal accusations that she was lying, saying she was in Mr Bartlett’s office at the time.
Mr Hodgman said Ms Giddings was desperately attempting to create political chaos.
He has launched a no-confidence motion in the Premier.
• As … Greens MP claims party ‘sounded out’ by Liberals over minority deal
• Meanwhile, The Sex Party’s Robbie Swan appears to have won the Tasmanian Senate seat from Labor’s Lin Thorp, edging out Palmer United’s Jacquie Lambie … (and benefitting greatly from Palmer’s preferences) Here: ABC’s unofficial Senate calculator. More reports shortly. • SMH: Sex Party candidate giving it a good shake in Tasmania … includes a pic of Robbie Swan … • Too early to declare, says Dr Kevin Bonham … as does • The Poll Bludger …
• As … Cathy McGowan claims victory in Indi after Sophie Mirabella concedes defeat
• As … New PM Tony Abbott sacks three public service bosses as first act
• As … Clive Palmer and Ted O’Brien swap lead in vote count for Queensland seat of Fairfax
• As … Indonesia warns coalition over policy
• Christine Milne: Abbott’s crimes against the climate
• Andrew Wilkie: A thinly veiled attempt to save money at the expense of Australia’s aid program
• And … here come the Dark Ages …
• Christine Milne: Black day for the climate
• Abbott wrong on ACT marriage equality law
• Dr Kevin Bonham on the latest EMRS poll … which shows the Libs cruising and Lara taking a hit as preferred Premier, here. Read the poll for yourself, here
Dr Bonham:
EMRS September: Lib 52 ALP 28 Green 15 Ind 5 Other 1
Interpretation: Lib 51 ALP 30 Green 13 Ind/Others 6
Outcome (if election was held now): Liberal Majority Government (most likely 14-8-3, or 14-9-2)
The September EMRS poll of Tasmanian voting intentions has been released, based on interviews conducted earlier this week. The results show what every other Tasmanian poll by any company since the start of 2011 has shown, which is that the Liberal Party is on track for majority government. (The trendline for EMRS can be seen here.)
The headline figures are Liberal 52, ALP 28, Green 15, Ind 5 Other 1. They are not significantly different from the May EMRS results, with the Liberals a couple of points lower. EMRS results have a history of favouring the Greens and underestimating Labor, because of the way EMRS distributes the undecided vote. Past election results have shown that on polling day the Greens only get about their raw EMRS vote rate, and not their share of the huge EMRS undecided vote. However at the last election, the EMRS projection of the Liberal vote was very accurate.
The poll is quite similar to an August ReachTEL which showed the Liberals on 54% (after removal of undecided), Labor 25.8, Green 15.6 and Others 4.4. However, the federal election showed that ReachTEL polling overestimated the Liberal vote and underestimated the Labor vote at federal level, by about four and a half points. An analysis of the ReachTEL poll on the assumption that the same was true at state level (which it may not be) projected votes of 49.2% Liberal, 28.7% Labor, 13.4% Green and 8.7% Other.
Read, the rest, Dr Bonham’s website here, where you can also comment …