It just gets worse for Julia

LABOR’S primary vote has plunged 7 points in a month to 27 per cent – the same as the Queensland ALP polled in the state debacle – in an Age/Nielsen poll that will send new despair through the embattled Gillard government.

The Coalition would win an election held now in a landslide with a two-party margin of 57-43 per cent – a swing against Labor of about 7 per cent. The two-party gap has blown out from 6 points to 14 points in just five weeks.

It is the worst ALP primary vote since September and only one point above its record low of 26 per cent last July.

It shows that Julia Gillard, who seemed to be getting some traction in February when Labor’s primary vote rose to 34 per cent, is back in disaster territory. Pollster John Stirton puts some of the fall down to the bad publicity around the Queensland election result.

It is the sixth time Labor’s primary vote had been under 30 per cent since the 2010 election.

In Victoria, however, Labor is ahead in two-party terms 51-49 per cent.

The carbon tax – which starts on July 1 – is more unpopular than ever, with 60 per cent opposed, one point higher than in October, and only 36 per cent in favour. One third of ALP voters oppose the carbon price, which Ms Gillard regards as a signature reform.

More than one in two people say they will be worse off under it, despite a compensation package designed to leave six million households better off or no worse off. Almost a third of ALP supporters think they will be worse off.

The Coalition primary vote has risen 3 points to 47 and the Greens are up 1 point to 13 per cent in the national poll of 1400, conducted between Thursday and Saturday.

The only bright spot for Labor is Tony Abbott’s continued unpopularity, with his approval rating falling 2 points to 39 per cent, a record low for him. His disapproval remains at a personal record high of 56 per cent.

Mr Abbott’s is the lowest approval rating for an opposition leader since Malcolm Turnbull’s last days in that job.

But Mr Abbott remains ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred PM – 48 per cent (up 1 point) to 45 per cent (down a point). Ms Gillard’s approval rating is steady at 36 per cent.

Queensland, where Anna Bligh’s Labor government was swept from office a week ago in a record swing, is also a polling nightmare for federal Labor. It trails by a massive 35-65 in two-party terms, while 68 per cent of Queensland voters disapprove of Ms Gillard’s performance.

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