Economy
Global Risks 2012
Please find below the full World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2012 Global Risks Report along with the summary discussion video.
The WEF Global Risks Report is based on a survey of 469 experts from industry, government, academia and civil society that examines 50 global risks across five categories.
This year’s Report contains discussion on a wide range of issues, including: problems associated with ageing demographics, rising health care costs, and inadequacy of retirement incomes, as well as risks arising from economic imbalances and social inequality.
How to get the best from the report: An expert perspective on the report, by Rick Otero of Golden Mean:
As the leaders of the economic world descend on the think-tank capital of the world – Davos – this week, I thought I’d share the latest gem the World Economic Forum recently released. It’s the Global Risks Report 2011: HERE
First, of all, the report is one of the best primers for business leaders on how to elevate their risk management game. I found myself exploring not just the content and conclusions, but the underlying logic and dare I say, beauty, of the visual information presented (Edward Tufte would have been proud!). You get a better sense of this by visiting the more interactive web site (HERE) versus just downloading the PDF. I applaud the writers of the report for going beyond and using the report as a teaching tool (you can’t help being drawn in and asking why?).
Second, before you dive into the report, I’d suggest catching Robert Greenhill’s overview (HERE). He tees up the two central themes which should give us pause. Theme 1: the world is reaching it’s shock vulnerability limits (in my words, there is very little capacity left to absorb). Theme 2: the level of shock is escalating.
Third, take a look at the highlight videos (HERE)and ask the tougher business questions. As I listened to the cross-cutting global risks of economic disparity and global governance failures I was left reflecting on the mission of the Gates foundation and wondering when more businesses would step up to helping shapes more positive outcomes in both these arenas. An even tougher question is the ability of businesses to handle the ever increasingly interconnected risk areas.
• Monday: Jobless rate to surge if Europe fails to avert disaster
by: Sid Maher
From: The Australian
January 23, 2012 12:00AM
THE worst employment market in 20 years will continue in the first months of this year, and a worsening of the European credit crisis could send the jobless rate surging towards 6 per cent.
Julia Gillard writes in The Australian today that the nation can face the future with confidence, with a year of “solid” growth and an economy that will remain the envy of the world.
However, economic forecaster Deloitte Access Economics said the fate of efforts to stave off an economic collapse in Europe would be the key to Australia’s prospects this year. Failure would destroy the nation’s budget surplus, driving up unemployment from the current 5.2 per cent and forcing the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates sharply. Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson said the fate of Europe would be a “genuinely close call” but he believed authorities would stave off a crisis.
He said Australia faced two paths. If a European disaster was averted, growth could be stronger than expected as resources investment underwrote growth that would restore retail sentiment and boost home building.
But after a 29,300 fall in the employment market last month capped a year of zero jobs growth, Mr Richardson said the outlook was likely to be flat regardless of the outcome in Europe.
“Uncertainty looks set to weigh on jobs in the short term,” he said.
“Employers may be more likely to offer existing workers extra hours rather than take on new employees. That could see unemployment edge up, although not much, as population growth has fallen notably. But if Europe does drop its load, then unemployment would jump towards 6 per cent.”
The Prime Minister writes today that Australia “can’t be completely immune from the impact of the massive slowdown in those economies but our economy will remain the envy of the world” with relatively low debt and unemployment and room for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates. She says Labor’s management of the economy during the GFC saved 200,000 jobs and “our investments today are protecting jobs”.
“With the resource boom driving a high Australian dollar, our economy is transforming and pressure is being placed on businesses in manufacturing and tourism.We understand this time of economic change and the need to work with these industries,” Ms Gillard writes.
The Deloitte Access Economics report follows a gloomy assessment last week from the World Bank (TT: The Coming Catastrophe), which cut its global growth forecast and warned there was a real risk of a deeper recession than in 2008-09 with a slower recovery. The International Monetary Fund revealed it would ask rich countries to contribute more capital as it sought to fill a financing hole for developing countries.