With just about every indicator confirming that Tasmania’s economy is as healthy as Derrryn Hinch’s liver, what are the options facing our Treasurer?
Sack a few thousand public servants? Cut back on programs for the lazy and disadvantaged? Perhaps tax the buggery out of the business sector?
These are not questions typically posed by left-leaning Governments, with the possible exception of the latter. In ordinary times, even those with a market-based approach to economics would recognise the politically abhorrent nature of alienating such a large proportion of the workforce.
But these aren’t ordinary times.
Looking back at over a decade of Labor Government, there’s no doubt Tasmania has progressed in some ways (and regressed in other, more easily measured areas). Strip out the Federal infrastructure projects and a series of economy-boosting bonuses, and there’s isn’t a great deal of private investment to brag about.
One suspects successive Labor premiers have fallen victim to the rhetoric spruiked by Gunns, Walker Corp, and a string of lesser operators who all promised of the wealth, tax revenue and unfettered job growth certain to flow from their respective proposals. Our Government is a sucker for a good property development story.
Take a look at Economic Development’s old Redilist. Despite being handsomely funded from the public purse, DED isn’t particularly skilled at updating their IT capability, and cached copies of 2006 data can be readily found on the net. (Let’s hope for Lara’s sake her internal memos are behind a different firewall to that of both DED and her media unit.)
From literally hundreds of projects three years ago totalling more than $4 billion, there’s now a very short list. A block of flats here. A new carport there. Pumphouse Point (remember that one?) Somebody in Government still thinks it’s a goer.
None of these are big enough to pick up the workforce freed up when the Brighton Bypass is finished, let alone drive economic growth back to any meaningful level.
Still, according to Lara, Tasmania remains blessed with record private investment and jobs growth. Either she has access to the sort of drugs that finished off the Winehouse girl, or she’s getting some seriously bad advice.
Now, over scones and tea on the weekend, she’s thrashed out some kind of deal with her loopy red-headed Labor buddy from Canberra. I’ve only read the basics, but here’s my summary:
1. The 2,000 people remaining in the timber industry pick up $425,000 each to stop them going back to work.
2. A shitload of cash will be provided by the Federal Government to provide pork barrelling (otherwise known as economic stimulus) for regional areas.
3. What’s left of Tasmania’s old growth forests will be set aside for now, until the 27 loggers left cry foul before the next election.
That sounds like a plan, particularly for the timber industry, and gets the timber lobbyists off Lara’s back for a while so she can concentrate on other things, like Budget strategies.
Remember the Budget? It was six weeks ago, and fortunately for Lara, ABC talkback has moved on to more important things, like the Tour de France and Eric Abetz’ conversion to the Green movement (he’s at last calling for a Royal Commission into Gunns).
Perhaps Lara’s hoping for some sort of magic pudding to appear: Tasmania’s 31,000 clerks to suddenly open their wallets and spend like there’s no tomorrow. In fact there is no tomorrow, unless Lara gets some decent advice.
You see, it’s only the private sector who is able to create real wealth, proper jobs and make the public sector viable. Lara doesn’t get that. She sees the private sector as a bunch of shopkeepers who rely on departments like DED to stay in business.
Lara’s only business pals are the ones who openly support her Government. Don’t believe me? Have a look at the hundreds of Government and semi-Government Boards, and count the number of individuals being openly rewarded for appearing in the media with Lara over the last few years.
Yet talk to a few serious business people about the current regime, and a different picture emerges.
Perhaps the most depressed business sector at the moment is retail. Sure, retail is cyclical, but even then Lara is in denial. She seems to think we’ve got the healthiest retail sector in the country.
The basket case industries – 1950’s manufacturing, logging, and the others who wouldn’t exist without continual handouts – are the ones which Lara’s much delayed Economic Plan will focus on.
The others, including financial services, hospitality, IT, niche agriculture, research, education (yes, it is Tasmania’s biggest employer after retail) and the arts won’t rate a mention.
Time is running out. We’re a month into the new financial year, and we haven’t seen a hint of Budget strategy yet, let alone a glimpse of the political will needed to face up to Tasmania’s problems.
Like a spoiled rich teenager with a spending problem, Lara seems to think her Federal parent will continue to bail her out.
It isn’t going to happen.
• The Premier was a guest on ABC TV’s Q&A in Hobart last night. React on the ABC website HERE, or on … THIS ARTICLE
