What if the Tasmanian Greens had fielded only 4 candidates in the seat of Denison? Would this have increased the chances that either their number 2 candidate, Helen Burnett or the well-supported independent candidate, Andrew Wilkie would have been elected, instead of Elise Archer?
Under the Hare-Clarke system voters need only vote for 5 candidates to have a formal vote. Without affecting the way Liberal or Labor-leaning voters might have distributed their preferences for other candidates (such as Andrew Wilkie) on their ballot paper, in the cut up for the fifth seat , maybe there would have been a better chance that preference flows of the Greens and Wilkie ballots might have favoured either Andrew or Helen respectively at the very end!
That would have given an election outcome of:
Labor 10, Liberals 9 and Greens 6
OR
Labor 10, Liberals 9, Greens 5 and 1 Independent.
Any thoughts from our Hare-Clarke psephologists?
Download:
Tasmanian Electoral Commission official scrutineers official cut up
Denison at C32.pdf
