Economy
Rudd should fear the swing
ACROSS the nation there is a clear swing away from ALP governments taking place.
Two years ago the ALP had close to a total sweep of Australian state and federal governments. But state by state – and in Canberra – the ALP is losing ground and we are likely to see some upset results in coming election. There is no one issue causing the swing, but rather the fact that each government is having trouble dealing with problems particular to their state and, in the case of South Australia, personal issues.
I am not predicting a Tony Abbott win at the federal election later this year, but the bumbling of the Rudd government gave him big wins in insulation and emissions trading. It is possible there are more shocks to come if schools have been caught by the speed of their building programs. The Prime Minister is now the subject of cartoon fun and while John Howard survived a long bad run from the cartoonists it’s a new experience for Rudd. He would not want another major disaster.
The long period of very bad government in New South Wales is being reversed by the current premier Kristina Keneally, but there is a lot of ground to make up. By contrast, in Victoria John Brumby has been an excellent premier and the combination of the coalition’s Kennett-Stockdale government and the ALP’s Bracks and now Brumby governments has delivered great prosperity.
But suddenly in an election year, Brumby is stumbling. He is being completely wrong-footed by the opposition leader Ted Baillieu on law and order. The Liberals appear to have a plan to fix the problem which is, in turn, in line with public opinion. Brumby, by contrast, is out of step with public opinion and resorts to meaningless spin on this issue – and it does not work. Add to that the public transport debacle, and, more recently, the leaking of an email that planned to again use spin to achieve a planning outcome with the Windsor Hotel.
Brumby will probably win the upcoming election, but unless the mistakes stop and he devises a totally new and tougher approach to law and order it will be close (Victoria up for grabs, February 16). As in the federal sphere, a year ago the opposition was in disarray – that has now changed.
In Queensland, a series of bad decisions has the Bligh government on the back foot. In South Australia, Mike Rann has been a good Premier but anything could happen given that his personal affairs will be a major issue.
In Tasmania the opinion polls for the March 20 elections are close. In Victoria you need to get law and order right, in NSW it is all about property taxes, and in Tasmania you must have green credentials. The ABC’s Australian Story account of the St Helens water scandal is almost unbelievable, and it may have an impact on current Premier David Bartlett’s election campaign.
In WA of course, the ALP was toppled and there is a coalition Premier, Colin Barnett.
While each of the situations is different I think we can draw some important lessons. In Canberra, Kevin Rudd tried to handle all the detail which left ministers and departments floundering and led to mistakes. In addition, the public servants were required to undertake at a fast-pace tasks like emissions trading and insulation where they had no expertise.
In the states the mistakes were made for a variety of reasons.
Too many ALP leaders, whether they are dealing with law and order, property taxes, insulation, emissions trading, or public transport, seem unable to grasp the enormity of their mistakes and still think spin works better than honesty. The electorate is starting to wake up and they want the politicians to be much more frank and honest with them.
Veteran political commentators will point out that what is happening is normal. It was not all that long ago that the coalition was dominating politics in Canberra and most states. Then the pendulum swung and now it is swinging back. It’s called democracy.