The international community, including Australia, confronts a dreadful dilemma in Afghanistan. On the one hand it could walk away from the seemingly inevitable disaster that would unfold. Or it can stay and fight, as it plans to, in the hope of somehow avoiding a different but equally inevitable disaster.
It didn’t need to be like this because the defeat of the Taliban in 2001 created an unprecedented opportunity. But the window was small and it hinged on peace being maintained until a new government in Kabul, and massive foreign aid, combined to give Afghanistan’s diverse population enough confidence in their future that together they’d want to resist the overtures of provocateurs.
But this didn’t happen. Security collapsed when the United States virtually withdrew in 2002 to prepare for the invasion of Iraq. Much of the promised foreign aid never materialised. And the new administration has turned out to be a deeply incompetent and corrupt mob with next to no power outside of the capital.
And now Afghanistan is on the brink. Eight years after the Taliban were routed they occupy 80 per cent of Afghanistan with at least 25,000 full-time fighters. The recent elections were so corrupted that President Hamid Karzai has no credibility. The situation has become so bad that the US and its allies are rushing in tens of thousands more troops and devising new strategies in a desperate bid to stabilise the situation.
The one bright spot – that Afghanistan is no longer an exporter of Islamic extremism – is dulled by the fact that the extremists have migrated across the border to nuclear-armed and unstable Pakistan. And in any case the global Islamic terrorist threat morphed years ago into a global network independent of any one leader or safe haven.
The only way to turn Afghanistan around now is to immediately stabilise the security situation and hastily rebuild the governance, infrastructure, services and jobs which give people hope and underpin long-term peace. But this appears increasingly unachievable because the foreign troops which anchor such a solution are now seen by many Afghans as the problem. Moreover the resultant nationalism is fuelling the rapid Taliban resurgence. In short, there can be no hope of enduring peace until foreign troops are withdrawn.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would know public support for the war in Afghanistan is eroding. But at the same time he would think Australia’s ongoing involvement is somehow a measure of the strength of our relationship with the US. The same misplaced sentiment explained John Howard’s determination to join the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Neither seems to understand that Canberra would be at less risk of being taken for granted in Washington if sometimes we just said ‘no’.
Don’t be fooled by the Rudd Government’s decision to tinker around the edges with Australia’s commitment to Afghanistan. The reality is that the best plan the Australian Government can come up with so far is simply to continue to support whatever the US Government comes up with. And that alone is no plan – it’s just reinforcing failure.
Andrew Wilkie is a former Army lieutenant colonel and senior intelligence analyst. He lives in Hobart where he is standing as an Independent candidate at the next State election.
