A confidential UN analysis leaked to The Guardian has put the lie to claims from nations such as Australia that they are committed to capping global temperature rises at two degrees. The report assesses the current emission reductions on the table at Copenhagen as leading to a three degree global average rise.
Climate campaigners seized on the report, with 350.org founder Bill Mckibben saying: “In one sense this is no secret we’ve been saying it for months. But it is powerful to have the UN confirming its own insincerity.”
In negotiations, The G77+China have successfully forced rich nations to continue the Kyoto track, after chair Denmark and other rich nations wasted a day and half unsuccessfully attempting a submission hold on the developing world. Rich nations hoped to force the abandonment of Kyoto, which sees only them with mandated emissions reduction targets, in favour of the Danish text which enforces across-the-globe cuts, albeit with higher per capita emissions allowances for rich nations.
The Australian blamed the developing world bloc for almost sinking the talks with their rejection of the Danish text, with Copenhagen correspondent Lenore Taylor leading with BLOCKING tactics by China and the developing world have brought the Copenhagen climate talks to the brink of collapse, leaving more than 140 world leaders facing the prospect of achieving only a weak political statement. The Oz missed the all important context of this debate – that is, the universal uproar that greeted the parachuting in of the new Danish text the previous day, and the clear warnings on day two of the talks that developing nations would not accept such a text.
With the continuance of the two track talks confirmed, some developing nation representatives where aiming with getting on with the job. Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh said:”We have lost a day and a half. I don’t want to point fingers. We must get talks back on a substantive track by the time the world leaders meet tomorrow.”
Others expressed the fears of the most vulnerable nations. Maldives President Mohammed Nasheed said: “We will not have a draft. There is no draft. We are facing a situation where it is possible that nothing comes out of [Copenhagen] unless the heads of state decide to come up with it themselves.”
“I am very nervous and very disappointed. During the course of the past two years, negotiators were supposed to have come up with a document for us to see and consider tomorrow, but they have failed,” Nasheed said.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy was similarly blunt. “There is less than 24 hours. If we carry on like this, it will be a failure,” Sarkozy said. “Time is against us, let’s stop posturing…. A failure in Copenhagen would be a catastrophe for each and every one of us.
Further difficulties may arise as Tuvalu, and other nations, doggedly pursue a 1.5 degree deal. “Over the last few days we have faced considerable pressure to accept a deal based around 2C. We have not yielded to this pressure because our future is not negotiable. I will not sign anything that is not 1.5C,” said Tuvaluan PM Amisa Elamia.
Unlike Tuvalu, however, some nations have not been able to resist pressure from major aid donors. A Mauritanian negotiator quoted in The Guardian revealed that the Europeans have broken the African solidarity. There is enormous pressure on the heads of state of Africa. They are very weak especially in financial terms. Any African country that depends on French or British aid will not be able to raise its voice to object.”
Some positive steps have been made in the negotiations, however, with Hillary Clinton’s backing of African Union negotiator Meles Zenawis US$100b developing nation fund seen as significant. China and Indonesia’s moves towards allowing independent verification of their emissions reduction efforts were also viewed as constructive, with China’s resistance to this a key sticking point with the US.
A surprisingly sanguine Gordon Brown expressed hope that a funding agreement could be agreed by world leaders tomorrow, and reported that Chinese 2IC Wen Jiabao had raised the possibility with him of China working towards an emissions peak – a significant departure from China’s current offer of reducing carbon intensity (CO2 emitted per GDP unit). Brown also told reporters that he and Mexican President Felipe Calderon had discussed moving forward the next major UN climate meeting in Mexico from December to July.
Reports also emerged of Danish police using wire taps, pre-emptive arrests, summary beatings, widespread undercover operations, and the pepper-spraying people in cages in a detention centre that police are calling Guantanamo junior. The Danish justice minister was quoted as saying: “The aim of the law was to prevent violent demonstrators from setting the town on fire, attacking the police and ordinary citizens and from making extensive vandalism. And the law has worked. The police have … thanks to their new powers done a really good job and prevented extensive unrest. I can tell the people appreciate this.”
In local politics, the Coalition backed themselves even further into their own corner, with Warren Truss pouring scorn on the Ethiopian plan to raise revenue on aviation and shipping freight levies, and Barnaby Joyce causing problems for Tony Abbot’s direct action emissions reduction plan by calling for compensation or an end to controls on land clearing.
Picture: Gordon and Nicolas in happier times
