Analysis: The Audacity of Nope

By the time Barack Obama arrived in Copenhagen, expectations for a binding or significant agreement were tracking on the downside of hope. After Obama’s lacklustre speech, which contributed little to the success of the talks, many were left wondering why he bothered.

Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, described Obama’s speech as ridiculous and the US’s initial offer of a $10bn fund for poor countries in the draft text as a joke.

After two years of lead-up work, two weeks of intense 192-way wrangling, and the presence of 115 world leaders, the best that Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao could come up with was a ‘political agreement’ that offers little progress, and in some areas a regression on previous agreements. The ‘Copenhagen Accord’, negotiated jointly with South Africa, India and Brazil, has infuriated developing nations. After weeks of intense negotiating, they have been effectively reduced to spectators, and have had their pleas for strong action ignored.

It is unclear whether binding agreements on rich nations will be included in the Accord. All references to a 1.5 degree temperature rise limit were removed at the last minute, and the goal of an 80 percent global emissions reduction by 2050 was also dropped. Mitigation and adaptation funding for developing nations was agreed at around 10- 25 percent of that demanded by some African nations, though the funding is in accord with the pragmatic and heavily criticised plan developed by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi. The accord also includes agreements on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, though with REDD the devil will well and truly be in the the detail.

The accord appears unlikely to be endorsed by the summit. A number of nations, including Tuvalu, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and several African nations, have indicated they will not support it. At 2pm Australian time (2am Copenhagen) a rousing speech by Tuvaluan representatives indicating they would not support the accord was roundly endorsed by developing nations who felt they had not been consulted, and it appeared the talks were headed for a complete collapse.The talks, which had continued through the night, were still ongoing, however, at the time of writing (5:30am Copenhagen time).

Some leaders blamed each other. Others talked up the outcome. And others were flattened by the gravity of the failure in Copenhagen.

Earlier, after the Accord’s announcement, the G77’s Lumumba Di-Aping was scathing. “This deal will definitely result in massive devastation in Africa and small island states, he said. It has the lowest level of ambition you can imagine. It’s nothing short of climate change scepticism in action.”

“It locks countries into a cycle of poverty for ever,” Di-Aping said.”Obama has eliminated any difference between him and Bush.”

Evo Morales, along with many others, blamed the countries who negotiated the Accord.”The meeting has failed. It’s unfortunate for the planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US,” he said.

Kevin Rudd was understandably positive regarding the non-deal, which followed the ALP climate policy model – high on rhetoric, low on action. We have achieved genuine progress and a genuine step forward, he said.This is the first time ever developed and developing nations have committed to a two degree Celsius rise.

Greens senator Christine Milne disagreed with Prime Minister Rudd, providing a clear and sobering summation of the talks, calling the accord superficial last-minute statement with no substantive progress made on any of the critical issues.

The prospect of Copenhagen producing nothing but a ‘superficial last minute statement’ was thrown into sharp relief by the words of Tuvaluan PM Apisai Ielemia, telling world leaders to cut their emissions so it can continue to exist as a nation. “We have nowhere to run to because our islands are tiny, we just have to prepare ourselves individually, family wise so that they know what to do when a cyclone comes in or a hurricane blows because there is nothing else we can do,” Ielemia said.

“There is no mountain we can climb up, there is no other inland where we can run to like in your big countries.”