The Parsons Climate Report

PHILL PARSONS

We appear as though we are not going to have high targets for emission reduction or renewable energy. I hope that the Greens are shown to be ‘foolish’ in their high targets, because if not, times will become more and more difficult and dangerous under the guidance of old ideas and greedy fossil fuel producers.

The Climate Report 28AUG09

Last Report I asked what will be the influence of the Leeuwin current on summer temperatures this coming season and year on year.

Historically, the Leeuwin current’s influence is strong between March and November, increasing winter rainfall. Events this season in Tasmania support this, Hydro power system storages are filling as a result, even though snowfall is late so far this year.

Usually weakened during summer, the Leeuwin current is further weakened by an El Ninô event. There is currently a high probability of an El Ninô event this summer and the eastern Indian Ocean remaining warm.

The combination of these events usually produces droughts in southern Australia and if combined with a warming influence for a current spilling across the Bight this summer could also see a warm temperature regime, especially with night temperatures.

Currently temperatures across much of Australia are above the long term norm

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/records-fall-as-temperatures-rise-nationwide-20090824-ewix.html

And

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25987193-11949,00.html

In the above is a cute graphic depiction of the maximum values. Locally minimum values have also been above average. The national distribution may be different and that is important for agriculture.

For Devonport [91111] for May, June and July minima averaged more than 1dC than the average. Currently the mean minima for August is 2.6dC above.

Where is the warming ask leading sceptics and deniers, as embodied in the Family First Senator, Steve Fielding.

This may be the hint of what is to come.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/08/090825151008.htm

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/heatwave-attracts-an-unwelcome-visitor-1774566.html

Algal blooms associated with increased temperature and nutrient run-off, both human induced, occurred off the coast of China prior to the Beijing Olympics, in the Red Sea, in Golfo de Mexico and in the Baltic Sea to name some major sites. Based on the trends increased temperatures are expected to lead to eutrophication of other ocean and estuarine waters.

Putting long running natural regulatory cycles out of sync generates problems for the functioning of natural systems that spills over into the economy through clean up costs or the impacts on fish catches or tourism.

Further, the northern hemisphere is seeing an unprecedented rate of bush fires. California and Washington, Greece and the Iberian Peninsular make the news. These are the northern latitudinal equivalent to SE Australia. Below is a report on the Greek tragedy.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25972077-2703,00.html

Steve, you need to get out from the air conditioned atmosphere more before you manage to entrench putting the interests of the youngest members of all families well behind money.

Still Steve is not the only Senator now out there opposing change. Although not yet a in complete public denial, Ron Boswell at the nationals polcy conference opposed a renewable energy target on the argument that renewable energy was a green policy.

Now he is in a real lather with zero carbonites defined as the enemy within, running a secret agenda, and wait for it, a Labor green alliance.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25975432-7583,00.html

Boswell fails to offer an alternative to address the problem that greenhouse gas growth has created except further delaying action.

Calling on business to join in successfully delaying action to address the risk of further climate instability risks the social licence business enjoys.

All sorts of practices have become unacceptable; falsely advertising tobacco products, denying the dangers of asbestos, mistreating animals in factory farms. Each failure by an industry has cost it directly and indirectly as the social licence is withdrawn.

Does the fossil fuel energy industry, the cement industry and the aluminium industry wish to face a future where their continuation is under question from a majority?. If they were to make the mistake of joining Boswell’s call, how much blame will accrue to them from the results of the delays to adequate action that will cause.

In answer to those who continue to flag Australia’s contribution to GHG production as miniscule, one of the highest per capita emitters would do well to set an example and reap the benefits of leading a change to a zero carbon economy. By adopting a 25 to 40% range for carbon pollution reduction, the rest of the developed world is likely to adopt higher targets and make the developing world more likely to join in rather than be left behind as the demand for green product from a global consumer market driven by trends and concerns grows and grows.

For example, a Rockhampton cement producer with a Tasmanian connection, Cement Australia, has closed down, supposedly because of a CPRS we don’t yet have. This plant was old technology squeezed between and GFC, higher operating costs and a CPRS.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/21/2662604.htm

The cement industry would do well to adopt the new formulations of cement that make it a carbon sink over the life of its concrete. These formulations and processes are out there, proved and ready to go. First in with green cement will reap the benefits of the market.

The government, as well as providing the penalty of an ETS, should support industry to adopt zero carbon and carbon positive technologies as governments have in assisting industry to transition from other polluting activities, sometimes reducing inputs and thus addressing costs along the way.

We cannot eschew change, the longest running drought; the large bushfires and the hot weather are flagging the trend. Waiting will see it get worse, much worse.

Turnbull responds to Boswell and Joyce by giving voice to what industry is telling him and Andrew Robb, Liberal spokesperson on Climate. Hang in there and make changes to the CPRS, we need the surety of a trading scheme

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25982960-5013871,00.html

Ten times more efficient and we will have commercially viable solar photovoltaic ‘paint’.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/08/090824115907.htm

Comment

Of course Garrett is constrained by his position, but to not express any personal disappointments after 2 years ranks well with solidarity and poorly with his humanity.

His failure to convince all the states to adopt no deposit legislation, and address plastic bag use were matter about which disappointment could have been expressed without skinning himself or his party.

Leigh Sales asked him about this on Wednesdays Lateline and off he went about all the achievements he could name.

Labour may have done different things to the Liberals.

Caring for Our Country has replaced the National Heritage Trust funding. The new programs effectiveness is yet to be seen. Changing from a species to an ecosystem approach to conservation is modern, especially if it operates at a landscape scale.

But really what at core is different between these 2 parties of old ideas.

Unsustainable exploitation of resources, continued destruction of the rich carbon stores and potential stores of natural forests, no firm carbon pollution reduction target leaving the lower end of the very wide range adoptable in some irrational ‘national interest’, and an Renewable Energy Target that includes a fossil fuel making the idea of renewable a nonsense.

The difficulty with the old party positions on the climate is that doing enough is not a matter of political positioning or budget bakancing.

Cutting a home insulation program will not only affect renters [the poor?] but will have real climate impacts. Is energy efficiency going to be the low fruit whenever budget cuts are needed?

http://www.theage.com.au/national/poor-lose-out-to-primary-schools-20090827-f16n.html

Whilst we may disagree on emission reduction targets and their achievability and thus what is practical and pragmatic, the laws of physics and chemistry will not apply such a balance in their ‘judgement’ of re-actions to the emissions caused by human activity and the resultant feedbacks.

On the environmental side, it is not supporting whatever business demands and finding a justification for that.

We now have two Environment Ministers, one from each old party, approving development on Barrow Island, a refuge for species who are no longer represented on the mainland, for species found nowhere else and an important breeding ground for the iconic Australian turtle, the flat backed.

Both development applications are by Gorgon, who expanded their ask each time. One could be more understanding of the dilemma if there was no alternative, but there is, and it would only cost a little more on each litre of gas to not further increase the pressure on Barrow’s fragile environment.

There are more mega developments in the pipeline on the eastern and western seaboard. How is the Federal government going to avoid the demands for more ‘special’ deals for development sites in environmentally sensitive areas on the grounds of cost and profit.

We appear as though we are not going to have high targets for emission reduction or renewable energy. I hope that the Greens are shown to be ‘foolish’ in their high targets, because if not, times will become more and more difficult and dangerous under the guidance of old ideas and greedy fossil fuel producers.

Phill Parsons