Libs bet big and Bacon makes it interesting

MATTHEW DENHOLM, The Weekend Australian
IN politics, the line between masterstroke and shocking bungle can be wafer thin. Just ask Malcolm Turnbull.

When the Tasmanian Liberals decided to run Vanessa Goodwin as a candidate in the by-election for the upper house seat of Pembroke, it looked like a trump card.

Goodwin, through past political tilts, has become well known in the seat of Franklin, which shares common ground with Pembroke on Hobart’s eastern shore. Her work as a criminologist has added to her profile.

A Goodwin victory against Labor would have given Liberal leader Will Hodgman the momentum boost he badly needs ahead of the March 20 state election. However, the Libs played the trump card too early.

Labor, having seen the Liberals’ ace hand, folded and announced it would not run an endorsed candidate. The man the ALP was to stand, lawyer James Crotty, was left to fend for himself as an independent, allowing the party to claim a de facto victory if he did well but to distance itself from any flop.

Labor’s manoeuvre was a little like Andrew Strauss’s time-wasting during the First Test at Cardiff: shameless and pathetic, but potentially effective. Then, late last week, a new player entered the field as an independent: Honey Bacon, widow of former Labor premier Jim Bacon. While the big parties expect Goodwin to win, Bacon is a wild card, offering voters an opportunity to protest against the Labor government while backing a candidate with Labor sympathies.

Pundits this week were mulling over how well Honey Bacon might do. Jim Bacon was a popular leader and there is a tendency to view his premiership as a golden era. (This may reflect as much the scandal-scarred Lennon years that followed Jim Bacon’s death in 2004 as it does his achievements in 5 1/2 years as premier.) The lasting value of the Bacon brand is unknown. Jim’s son, Scott, a Labor candidate for his dad’s old seat of Denison at the state election, will be watching closely.

Labor feels the Liberals have wasted Goodwin on a now unimportant upper house seat. Goodwin was to stand at the state election in the lower house seats of Franklin, where everyone expected she would grab a second seat for the Libs at Labor’s expense. (Tasmania has multi-member electorates.)

A win for her in Pembroke against independents would achieve little for the Libs, as Labor sees it, and certainly not create any kind of momentum for Hodgman. Should Goodwin fail or scrape in, the Liberals would look decidedly unimpressive.

However, the Liberals are confident a Goodwin victory will create a pre-election fillip, while arguing the Liberal vote in Franklin will deliver an extra seat without Goodwin’s help. Polling backs this view.

Certainly, Hodgman would be wise to appoint Goodwin immediately to the front bench if she is elected.

James Crotty’s challenge to debate: is at The Beltana Bowls Club, Lincoln St, Lindisfarne at 7pm on Tuesday next, July 21. Moderated by Richard Herr.