The Parsons report (3)

PHILL PARSONS

Readers may remember when I reported on the predictions for Melbourne’s water supply, with my analysis that they would just fall over the line before the desalination plants and the pipeline from the Goulburn Valley increased available water.

Well, unfortunately, the Bureau of Meteorology reports that an El Ninό has a 50/50 chance of coming along in the wetter part of the year, reducing rainfall during the usually high period. That will be 13 years of average or below rainfall. That will be the longest since record keeping in Melbourne began.

How does this affect Tasmanians major energy income earner. Power storages are at 24.3%, with the big 2 below this average. This is usually the lowest month of storage so it’s better than the lowest. Recent snowfall is welcome but the wettest and snowiest months are yet to come and we will revisit this in October for the peak.

Is this phenomenon only affecting us and the Andeans? Well up their in the Rocky Mountains the snow pack is again melting rapidly because the dust from the parched and abused lowlands to the west along with some black soot from fossil fuel is falling on the snow and decreasing its reflectivity allowing it to warm and melt more easily.

Further north in the Rockies the story is the same only the details change, more heat equals less precipitation

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090512153335.htm

In the Federal Parliament Combet has read the CPRS legislation into the lower house, outlining the governments trigger for a 25% emissions reduction target for 2020.

If, at the end of the year in Copenhagen, an ambitious global target of limiting emissions to 450ppmv CO2[-e] is achieved, then the government commits to a 25%, emission reduction target. No mention of step 2, the 2050 target. This was touted as 60% but with a 5 times increase of the 2020 target one would expect the target for then to increase as well.

For a real effect on limiting climate instability try a 90% to 120% range. Of course some more scientific work and understanding may show a different target. However, based on the trends of on ground climate changes the target required is likely to be at the higher end.

What sort of Report do we have for the Murray Darling Basin. 6 years of satellite data have shown a drying out of ground water. It may recharge with flooding rains but with a trend of decreasing rainfall throughout the catchment the long term for the basin appears not to be for a return to the bounty of the past.

More on Melbourne’s water supply van be found at

http://www.theage.com.au/national/running-on-empty-20090520-bfpp.html?page=-1

where the 457 days of supply in storage comes at the end of the driest start to the year.

Based on the current trend Melbourne having water will be a near run thing. Perhaps the Brisbane solution will apply, with flooding rains temporarily saving the brown coal fossil fuel state from itself.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/it-rains-it-pours-and-it-just-keeps-coming-20090521-bh76.html

The solution to the effects of a hotter and drier climate becoming worse is clear. Will the Victorian government continue to fail its people by remaining wedded brown coal. Its the dirtier than black if you don’t gassify it?.

Mayors of the world’s 40 largest cities met to discuss how they can reduce their carbon footprints.

“Half the world’s population lived in cities last year, and that figure is expected to grow to 70 per cent by 2050, said Clinton, citing UN statistics.

They occupy just 2 per cent of the world’s land mass yet are responsible for more than two-thirds of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions”

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25506364-11949,00.html

Leadership is important but all energy use needs to be changed to low carbon emission if we are to avoid tipping into more and more dangerous climates.

In the US President Obama has not been afraid of change, taking on the bowed and broken big boys from Detroit and upping their fuel efficiency as the price for government assistance out of the Global Economic Crisis

http://www.theage.com.au/world/obama-to-tighten-car-emission-standards-20090519-be8j.html?page=-1

Meanwhile Australia continues to trail behind world leadership in fossil fuel efficiency. More power to Better Places electric car initiative although I am sure as this becomes more like reality fuel efficiencies will leap, delayed by the desire for super profits.

Here is an oped piece on China’s emissions.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/china-will-have-to-help-save-the-planet-20090517-b7ay.html?page=-1

The NY Times journalist believes China is realising a need to conform at Copenhagen and commit to targets. I hope he is right and Australia takes the higher road the government indicates would be acceptable.

The investment in desalination will be some $10B by the end of 2011. That is money not available for health, for education or any other need.

Climate adaptation will demand more and more of the pie. It is better if we decide now where to invest to limit climate instability if we can rather then be forced into ‘emergency’ directions to save try to ourselves from our own stupidity.

The mining industry continues to flag job losses under an ETS.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25520171-11949,00.html

They forget to tell all. As robotics expands into the mining sector it will be like forestry, technology will result in reduced employment. But hey, why not blame it on something else, you never know what concessions you’ll get.

We will know the mining industry is serious about protecting jobs when we hear them shouting, “no robot mining, save miners jobs” as they lead the unions to a pay rise.

Wong goes to Paris to negotiate over targets for the December Copenhagen agreement. This latest study from MIT gives the range of results for climate models with and without an agreement to constrain carbon emissions.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090519134843.htm

The 400 simulations shows that with a strong policy the projected temperature increases remain in the range of previous efforts to predict the outcome but with no policy the outcome range is hotter than before.

You have to imagine the odds of a weak policy, the more likely, but strong policy favours a 2 – 2.5dc range and for no policy ‘business as usual’ gives equal weight to 4-5d and 5-6dC increases being the most likely.

Conclusion; humans will face dangerous climate change. Howard’s role at Kyoto bears responsibility for this through his supporting the US position and thus delaying action by that nation.

And so the inevitable grinds immutably on toward Copenhagen and beyond.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25524934-11949,00.html

The Greens have said delaying the CPRS/ETS legislation could be better for the negotiations in Copenhagen as Australia will not have committed and thus the pressure for a strong target on Australia and the world remains.

They also remain of a mind to pass the legislation but continue to prier stronger targets.

Meanwhile, the Northern Rivers district of NSW demonstrates the future with a rainfall event where a large proportion of your annual rainfall arrives in a short period, overtopping storages and leaving supply throughout the years under pressure.

Most people will see this as just one of the vagaries of the weather. However, this event pattern of rainfall is part of the predicted change to the climate. Winds and temperature will behave similarly.

Adaptation costs such as extending levees, relocating residential and business areas and the loss of flood, storm and tempest and bushfire insurance for vulnerable areas, including those newly vulnerable could follow as the claims on the insurers force the industry into higher and higher re-insurance costs.

This is the re-insurance industry’s prediction, an industry not noted for wild speculation.

These ongoing costs to repair damage and to adapt are reducing capacity to maintain what we already have.

And as if to fuel this the atmospheric methane levels have shown 2 consecutive years of increase after years of stability. Perhaps a result of drying wetlands and tropical forests or of thawing permafrost or both, CH4 makes up 18% of Green House Gases currently. Enough is in store to tip temperature by some 10dC devastating the planet.

The solution lies within our hands and how seriously our government and the global community treat the best scientific advice tests whether our structures can work for human benefit or they are simply a device to look after a few.