Bartlett’s new climate changes less day by day

phill Parsons

The rate of measures to transit the Tasmanian economy to a low Carbon one needs to be rapidly accelerated, soberly driven, with the seat belt on and within the speed limit, but nevertheless at the maximum allowable speed.

Premier Bartlett has made a splash announcement on his new governments old style measures to address climate instability with the homeowner remaining unsupported for all the measures they take, the same old short sighted policy vacumn.

Indeed, his borrowed real world demonstration home, for all its worthiness and 5 star homeowners, was converted at those home owners expense thus saving, on the figures broadcast, about $1,000 in power bills per year for them.

The 5 stars, a part of the governments awareness program of making the already aware more so and, as many educational programs do, changing behavior among those aware of the cost but not among the many still asleep or in denial about climate instability, are very worthy and may there be many more awarded the halo.

However as an example, how many still drink and drive, speed or fail to wear seat belts after years and years of education about road safety. The laws of physics, of chemistry and of ecosystems are much less forgiving than the doctors and judges who attempt to limit the damage from dangerous drivers.

Awareness is good and much better late than never, but we should already be well beyond the awareness raising phase, delayed for so long by a Labor Party full of hate,

The rate of measures to transit the Tasmanian economy to a low Carbon one needs to be rapidly accelerated, soberly driven, with the seat belt on and within the speed limit, but nevertheless at the maximum allowable speed.

Meanwhile, down at the Hydro boardroom sighs of relief are being breathed as the dams fill following the catchments saturation, some snow and periods of rain, allowing power to be sold into the Victorian market and the storages to fill to offset the cost of brown coal fired power we buy in now and through the coming summer period.

With carbon about to be priced into the energy from Victoria, it will cost more against the already Carbon value free Hydro. Heaven for a business where the rainfall provides surplus energy to sell, perhaps the board will wear 5star halos at their meetings.

Of course the question is when will the dams reach 100% full and will the rainfall sufficient for that in more years than not to 2050.

Although the limited data sets used for the UTAS report to Hydro forecast such a future recent patterns have not conformed and other aresas hacve had major declines in rainfall averages.

14JUL08 and 21.7% on the storage data, up from 16.9% in 5 days. If 50mm over the catchments gives 5% fill what does the next 3 months hold?.

The maximum of the predicted range for rainfall to the 9th of October at Forthside is a further 500mm making the Hydro system up to half full but the minimum sees.

How can additional energy be found, especially if there is a long term trend of a declining rainfall pattern?.

Energy efficiency, recommended by the Greens in the 1990’s and adopted by the provisional and permanent government as the core of an advertising program 20 years later, further demonstrates Tasmania’s policy vacuum, lagging, not understanding trends and never leading.

And converting the power supply at your home, a Green policy for years and now recommended for the communities health gets a tick from that same sleepy hollow government, and a non-announcement from the Premier. Good, but where is the actual leadership?.

How can the Tasmanian homeowner afford the investment in low energy when pay levels

are lower than other states.

Well, bright sparks down there at Treasury, at that State business the Hydro, here is your chance to recommend that the Labor government go all Green. make an investment in the future of Tasmania and finance power consumers into low carbon energy systems.

Hydro has the profiles of the big domestic and small business users in its files to target, you know the big little power consumers, the ones with the need to manage costs in an economy transiting to low Carbon and the wherewithal to do so for now, at least.

Put together a package and have them pay the cost back through their power bill, 20 years is $20,000.00 copying the power supply measures of the home the Premier selected to launch the climate policy and the Hydro still has the power not consumed in the investment in the generating capacity sell again, another $20,000.

Is that too difficult to work out and create a program of action. The Tasmanian Liberals think not as it was part of their State budget in reply.

In kw you could install 3 in photovoltaic panels plus a solar hot water unit and there you are. 200,000 happy potential customers and some 900Mw [000,000] more power from the sun for a small investment of several Billion until repayments and power sales fund the project and give a return on the currently idle empty storage capacity.

And as time moves on the price of energy rises more and more with Carbon reduced emissions caps increasing the income to the Hydro from those who buy the power in Victoria still made by water and gravity.

Only for a time will the Green Power market niche will be available, giving more value to the generating capacity freed up. Then, as the low carbon technology develops that niche will disappear and still Tasmania will need to meet its own power needs

For those converting to fixed the cost, it’s a great incentive to act and it helps the Tasmanian economy compete by keeping costs here down whilst increasing the return from the investment in the Hydro dams, of some benefit to the whole community.

The impact of Carbon trading on the income for the publicly owned forests will arrive, a positive if the Tamar valley pulpmill isn’t built, a negative when the trading price of Carbon exceed $34t CO2 [$17m3] when the contract limits the price of wood from native forest to $17m3.

Write better contracts, special deals that cost should cost at least one head a job.

Realizing value from forests is a way to fund the transition of the Tasmanian economy to a low Carbon model. However, if the Carbon stored is sold, in a sink or as wood, that value should go to fund low carbon technologies to compensate for the loss that drives climate change.

Tasmanian’s global share of the terrestrial sink is on a per capita basis is 111,000 t CO2 pa. [1.4BtCO2/6.3Bx500k]. Tasmanian forestry emits 2.45M t CO2 pa [see Note]. The deficit on an equity basis is 2.349M t CO2 pa. Of course we are not the only place with a deficit.

If you take all per head emissions for Tasmanians it is over 12M t. More than our equitable global allocation of CO2 is emitted each year. This alone should stimulate a modern functional government to assist the community to reduce our Carbon pollution.

Finally, a hospital built between 2010 and 2015 will, if its life is similar to the last one still be in service in 2065. Already we are having a conflict between the preferred location and the notion of a working port.

Port infrastructure tends to be tied to sea level but hospitals aren’t. Betting on limited sea level rise is brave when it’s the major teaching hospital.

A site above 80m takes into account all the ice melting and the climate will be extreme if that melting occurs. A hospital will be essential, preferably one underground to manage temperature and storm events. Hopefully that’s not the site for the Hobart hospital after this one although a site for that will never be cheaper.

Further, one should plan for a 2M sea level, rise given the rate of change since the 4th Assessment Report by the IPCC. Change to the coastal Policy and the local planning schemes required here as Sharples dated report indicates.

Oh and for those using the grand Chancellor underground Carpark or depending on any other one placed at sea level, prepare for a new future that 2M rise is locked in unless we find a way of removing a substantial amount of CO2 from the atmosphere like all the living systems on the land and in the sea do now or a way of cooling the planet without plunging it into an ice age.

Phill Parsons will get around to putting his oar into the Bartlett pond of ideas, the one nobody has a monopoly on but the permanent government keeps a tight rein over, just in case the provisional one has an unapproved idea and something happens.

Note

• 50% of Woodchip Volume from Privately owned forest [679k ha] doubles the 11M t pure C lost from Forestry Tasmania’s commercial forest [584.5k ha] = -22M t pure C
• Conservation Forest of 1.27M State + 0.758 Sate Forest + 0.291 Privately owned forest unlogged/able = 2.319 M ha increasing at [5Mtc /0.758 = 6.596 t per ha x 2.319k ha] = +15.3M t pure C.
• -6.7MtC [x44/12] = A loss of 24.5 M t CO2 from all Tasmanian forests over 10 years or 2.45M t CO2 pa.
• Value as tradeable offset @ $20 per tonne = $49.13M pa
• However the actual loss from wood production is [22 + 15.3 – 6.7] = 30.6M t pure C [x 44/12 / 10 years x $20] = $224.4M pa

Source MBAC Report 2007 for Forestry Tasmania