You reap what you sow

phill Parsons

Based around the relationship between humans and the natural systems that support our quality of life, the impacts of past decisions ripple out through our generation down to those yet to be born, our decisions contributing mightily to those impacts.

HERE we are with Victoria facing a fire of the dimensions of the 1939 Black Friday disaster, again at the tail end of a long dry period, but this time one month before that 13 January event. Where I sit a huge smoke pall fills the sky, source unknown. It should speak volumes to us about the state we have managed to create for ourselves.

Regardless, there is an official view that determines both Tasmanian and Australian government policy toward the environment. They are the Tasmanian 2003 State of the Environment [SoE] Report http://www.rpdc.tas.gov.au/soer/index/recommendation/2003summary.php

and the recently released 2006 national Report.

Based around the relationship between humans and the natural systems that support our quality of life, the impacts of past decisions ripple out through our generation down to those yet to be born, our decisions contributing mightily to those impacts.

According to this, the third SoE Report, “the lack of accurate, nationally consistent, environmental data.” affects the quality of the report. The Tasmanian report confirms this lack of a methodology and data shortages through its calls for studies.

With particularly serious consequence for the management of major elements of Australia’s environment better time series and spatial data is needed across almost every sector of the environment.

Of course, when humans were hunter gatherers the impacts were minimal, fitting into patterns of natural variability. Later, as human activity became more concentrated, resources appeared boundless as the whole world had not been affected by modern human activity.

Theosophies developed to justify domination over, and transformation of, nature to replace the deities that assisted older society’s relationship with the natural world. These attitudes were taken with a crusading zeal to the world new to Europe and remain with us today.

Now, as science has expanded our knowledge, we are faced with a clear choice between a sustainable future and difficult times ahead, the impact varying form some economic cost to catastrophe depending on the seriousness with which we take our activities.

Some key findings of the 2006 Australian SoE Report

Yes there have been improvements. After 18 years of an international agreement on limiting the production of ozone depleting substances there is evidence to suggest a positive effect.

In most cases air quality is meeting nationally agreed standards. Although these standards may be insufficient in the case of PM2.5’s, these are little understood in health terms as are the impacts of industrial [smoke] pollution on rainfall patterns and volumes.

Water supply problems combined with drought has made climate change more of a concern in the community since the 2001 SoE Report. This is flagged as a significant attitudinal change and now Howard has set up a business and government taskforce to report on carbon emissions trading by 31 May 2007 well salted with fossil fools.

Greens leader Brown has condemned the inquiry as a sop to the coal industry. Howard’s record on this matter gives weight to Brown’s assertion that Howard “has made a choice between the coal industry and his grandchildren. He has chosen coal.”

The report will be measured by the mechanisms for carbon trading it recommends. Will they result in comrehensive, effective and timely action to address dangerous climate change through mitigation measures or simply be another money making adventure.

Rudd has made a no brainer and promoted Garret to a climate change and environment portfolio. No doubt hoping that the Green rollercoaster will be going uphill against the former rockstar and anti nuclear campaigner. Labor’s uranium export policy will define the utility of his personality.

This proof of an attitudinal change will be shown in the period leading up to 2007 federal election, as avoiding dangerous climate change leads the debate around environment policies, the 3 major parties defining themselves in relation to this issue.

Yes folks, Howard will not go before the 31st of May. He needs to confirm his credentials on this major issue and no doubt will try a wedge similar to the forestry one he used on Latham.

Money, money, money, that’s all whitefellas care about

As we know, much in our society is measured in monetary terms. Between 2001 and 2005 Australia spent $10.3B on the environment, with the major results being reduced land clearing [remember that, whole landscapes being degraded in one go, Bejlke Petersen, Premier of Qld, once a leading proponent], a restructure of fishing zones and changes to their management, better land management through regional bodies, some water conservation reform, an improvement in cultural heritage management including the creation of national collections, improved cooperation with the states over threatened species management and an increase in philanthropic environmental stewardship.

Resource demands continue to rise and improvement in recycling and re-use of a broad range of materials including water, construction materials, energy and organic waste including sewage are negatives.

Future Directions

You can’t go much higher in the language of a report on the facts than an emphatic opinion. The report recommends that the problems of insufficient data be addressed.

12% of the report is based on no data and another 51% on partial data, making half the report more like guesswork than a factual assessment. Of course a failure in data collection can be deliberate, by not knowing, fault cannot be attributed.

Change to a wide ranging and consistent data set regularly collected would allow constant monitoring of environmental performance. Only a government taking the environment seriously would commit to this, all other governments on offer are talking dataless or partial data crap and well before the next report, if the lack of data is not addressed, deliberately so.

Environmental management capacities in regions need improvement. Particular mention is made of the opportunity for indigenous communities in caring for country and also how improvements in living conditions can positively impact on health and well being in those communities. How long before this national shame is addressed in a positive way?.

Noel Pearson has written on this subject again and again, based on the experience of the communities on Cape York. Not just for environmental reasons action is needed here although dividing environment from individual and social consequences is more about semantics than reality.

Heritage gets a mention with welcome improvements to the conservation of both the cultural and natural.

Adaptation strategies for climate change are flagged. As part of that, fire management needs improved strategies to avoid he types of event that Sydney and Canberra, to highlight 2 examples, have been affected by. Right on the nose there.

The Report is broken up into sub sections, interestingly consistent with the Tasmanian report’s subsections. I hope this layout is a firm part of an intergovernmental agreement so the consistency is likely to remain.

Human Settlements

“A sustainable human environment requires greater attention to urban design and a net reduction in consumption.” Here is a clear statement for all levels of government to act upon.

With 80% of the population urbanized people are moving into higher density living whilst the fringes of cities continue to impact at the natural and cultural landscape interface. The strategies developing a megalopolis approach have sustainability impacts. Resources and people have to travel further, waste increases and opportunities for change also grow.

People are leaving the country with 63% of rural local governments showing a decline in population between 1999 and 2001.

Depopulation of the country combined with ageing farmers and climate change are forecast to impact negatively on the capacities of humans in these areas of population decline to manage their natural and cultural environments. Note for policy planners here.

Flagged for special attention is the impact of sea changers on the coastal regions.

“Coastal development, stretching from Hervey Bay in Qld to the Surf Coast [ past Cape Otway ] in Vic will impact on cultural heritage, available productive agricultural land of the eastward flowing river basins and remnant vegetation outside national parks.”

These protected areas will become remnants in a sea of sea changers escaping urbanization by urbanizing their boltholes without necessarily providing the answers they seek. What strange creatures we are, tied to our present whilst we seek some mythical bucolic past.

In Tasmania we know this ‘cancer’ is spreading, with ribbon development stretching from Rocky Cape to Narwantapu NP, with very few breaks in between. Why this region is not one local government unit with adequate resources to plan it is a mystery that only a fear of change could explain. Its natural resource management aligns with the Report’s view of regional management.

Also this development cancer is creeping along the East Coast and around the Derwent Estuary. A severe case of landscape malformation is on offer for Ralphs Bay as a demonstration of the State Government’s commitment to environmental improvement. It is doubtful if the proposal is in line with the recommendations of the Tasmanian SoE, especially 7.6

Energy use is 10% more efficient in wealth production as measured against GDP. Individual consumption is up by 4% in 7 years. The continued growth of material consumption will cost the earth. The trend line needs to be at nearer zero. We have to learn to do more with less or sharply reduce global population.

As the report intimates, the precepts of the 1970s Brundtland Report remain inescapable.

Almost half our energy use is petroleum products, road transport using 60% of that half. Here is where gains can be made for both greenhouse gas reduction and economic benefits as the need to import petroleum products rises against Australian oil fields production declining.

Biofuels, LPG, CNG, more rail and new power sources are areas where a government committed to real change would be investing. Instead the $ 4B that has gone to the Australian car industry has resulted in minimal improvements in the fuel efficiency of the domestic product.

People looking for fuel efficient vehicles are turning to imports. Renault is a leader here.

So shocking is this wasted opportunity that Alan Jones has taken the government to task once. Result nothing.

Water use increases at a greater rate than water reuse and recycling.

By 2001-02 only Qld had not increased its recycling of sewage from 1998-99 figures. A clear example of the lack of up to date data. By 2006 Beattie may have made changes but the data is not available in time for this report.

Water reuse has had a recent boost at Round Hill, with a $15.6M waste water treatment plant to remove solids and release clean water opening. This has been a great step up since the days of Tioxide and APPM as Burnie looks to crate a new image for itself.

The problem, there is no infrastructure to reuse the product. The clean water goes to the ocean, of benefit to fish and beach users. Reuse would require a further investment in distribution. For the water a pipeline and in this relatively high rainfall area raw water remains cheaper.

Use of the biosolids will require composting and transport, but as a soil conditioner it may assist in addressing soil carbon loss in the intensively cropped areas of the north west. The national loss was noted in the Land section of the report where it is estimated that some $2M tons have been lost each year from 1990 to 2004, reducing soil health.

Community Wellbeing and Liveability of urban areas are mentioned as measures of the environment and this subsector of measuring human settlement could, with good data collection, assist in guiding urban development more.

,strong>Atmosphere

Rainfall, Drought, Temperature, Evaporation; the sub sets of climate, all get a mention with an interesting Bureau of Meteorology map of changes in the sea surface temperature.

Nationally air temperature is increasing and the range between day maximum and night minimum is decreasing over the last century.

One may reflect on the increasing melt of the sea ice, mentioned in the Antarctic section, the icebergs near Dunedin NZ, our current dry weather patterns and the changed distribution of cold and warm water in a very clear map series comparing the 1950 – 2002 and 1970 – 2002.

Greenhouse Gases [GHG]

The total is up, but per capita it has fallen to 28.2tons, 4.1 down on 1990. It has also fallen per $ of GDP. The savings are largely from land use changes, basically a reduction in land clearing and are a once only event.

The major single source of these gases remains the Energy Sector at 68.6%. The 2 largest are Stationary energy 49.6 and Road Transport 12.5

The estimate of our 21.2 millions of population contribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gases is 1.5%. It would be fair if the earth’s population was 700M but its about 9 times that and so on a global equity basis our lifestyle is grossly inflated. The world’s environment suffers from our thoughtless greed.

Adapting to Climate Change gets a mention but let me say that any investment here needs to be accompanied by move to massive reduction in global GHG emissions. All the money in the world will not buy enough adaptation.

If Howard’s carbon geosequestration from coal was in all our power plants it would only be in the order of a 39% reduction in GHG production. With nuclear power it may reach a little higher to around 43% given that total % remains the same. It would still remain some 17 to 37% short, depending on the analysis of the reduction of GHG production to avoid dangerous climate change that is used.

Remember, in measuring what is on offer it’s the reverse of the old rag trade joke, never mind the quality, feel the width.

Biodiversity; move to a landscape based model, away from depending on reserves isolated in a sea of unrestrained denaturing human activity dooming biodiversity to a slow decline to a simplicity full of costly replacements for what are now relatively free services.

An adaptive system to include private land needs to be developed further to have sufficient natural areas to ensure a continuous set of links between reserves and thus a supporting buffer for the populations conserved in reserves.

Coasts and Oceans

Interestingly, as more changes to fisheries management are proposed due to the falling stocks of some 20 species of the 65 fished, an industry spokesperson comes out with a brilliant analysis to oppose those changes. In summary; what are you talking about, the buy out of licenses and the creation of no fishing zones has resulted in bigger catches. More is better.

Inland waters

Of all the drainage divisions in the intensive land use zones only two showed an increase in the forested length of the rivers. The Murray Darling went up some 5,000km to some 130,000km of its 500,000.

Tasmania made no change with the 25,000 or so of the 60,000 total remaining unforested.

Meanwhile the swamps of south eastern inland continue to dry out and so see a decline in their contribution to biodiversity. Environmental flows appear to be poorly accepted by an industry dependent on water. They still fail to understand the importance of a healthy whole in providing environmental services at a very low cost.

Environmental Governance

For the first time local government’s role gets a mention in the national SoE Report.

About 32% [$4.1B] of the expenditure on environmental management is made by this sector of government, mostly in water supply and sewage treatment. No wonder this is an area for review but can waste be cost effectively reduced.

When water is dearer then petrol, as I understand it is in Dubai, changes would flood forth.

Also flagged are changes in Natural Resource Management to a regional level, to focus on a single geographical unit, to assist in overcoming the top down centralized approach of the past. The citizens of each region engaged in policy development and implementation to assist in spreading attitudinal changes.

With a change regional management you would have to watch carefully to guard against the mates deals that run through all levels of government but appear especially significant the smaller the governmental unit.

Future Directions

Adapting for Survival could not put the problem more clearly. Government solution lies in Regulation and Incentives but getting a mention is that it is a shared responsibility and there is a need for all to bear the costs and be involved. Business and philanthropic organizations are noted.

This should not simply be a continual series of price rises put on the consumer as we follow the path trod for generations reacting to problems. There is a need for new anticipatory policies that attempt to prevent the high costs of repairing damage done by what are failed ways of working in the Australian environment.

It is also essential for industry to invest in new processes, cleaner, with less energy input and with the product recycled at the end of its life. This should be mandatory to create the sustainable society the Report supports and is a measure of government commitment.

Victoria made the change, working with industry to improve processes and thus setting in place processed to ensure industry aligned with desired environmental outcomes and many cases reduced costs.

For those interested in policy development, or indeed its history, this report, being essential reading, will have been consumed.

The authors have tried to make it readable and within it are many challenges that this nation needs to face up to and resolve if it is to continue as the lucky country well into the future. [ http://www.deh.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/report/index.html ]

Those with no interest have not read this article and will drift along with the flow, sewage like, until events impinge on them and then follow the age old process of whingeing about government, unable to see the complexities that have led to the point of impingement, unable to consider others and unaware of the consequences of their past and future actions.

God bless dumb and dumber, as their representative threatens to arise from the ashes of her flag draped craziness [ “If you are seeing this now” ] to either sell her book or perhaps engage us again with her “please explain” yodels for yokels, as she shows her grasp from the back benches of a party for one.

phill Parsons: climate change adaptation and mitigation advocate.