Climate of fear

I HAVE to agree with Dr Bonham that the rarity of four extreme weather events does make it difficult to draw conclusions, even if their frequency appears to be increasing. However the data referred to by Luis Apiolaza, from which I drew the four Category 5 Hurricanes, was from a limited range of cyclones. (The climate crisis)

Only 11% of cyclones worldwide occur in the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Basin. Of that the data referred to was limited to those that had struck the mainland United States and ranked to costliest and deadliest. It did not draw on all events in the basin.

[Australia has an average of some 15% and the North West Pacific 41%]: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/climvari/table.html

Research is showing that the more extreme events on the Saffir-Simpson scale are increasing.

For example the table at:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2001/nov2001/
shows an increase in both frequency and intensity in the 2001 year over previous half decade.

The landfall and degree of damage of these cyclones is a random subset of that and so a few extremes may not be useable statistically.

However, if we take the subset of Hurricanes reaching the US from the Costliest and Deadliest Table, group into 30 years and what do we see [one suggested cycle of intensity is 35 years].

Years
All Hurricanes
Category 3,4,5
As a % of All

1851-1880
54
14
25.92

1881-1910
61
17
27.86

1911-1940
53
20
37.73

1941-1970
55
24
43.63

1971-2000
41
14
34.14

From http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

Given that these events may be cyclical and are from a limited subset, the data appears to show a rise in the more damaging categories. The last 30 years of the record show a decline in events [All Hurrricnes] but not a return to a low % of 3,4,5 Category events from 1851-1880. Thus the trend line for intensity appears to be rising in relation to the Categories on the data of Costliest and Deadliest Hurricanes striking the mainland US.

Here is this season with 5 or so weeks to run.

“The National Hurricane Center has predicted significantly greater activity for 2005, with 18-21 tropical storms and 9-11 hurricanes projected, 5-7 of which are expected to reach category 3 or greater. So far the season is exceeding expectations; as of October 21, the following activity had occurred:

22 named tropical storms for the first time since systematic record keeping began about 150 years ago
12 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
The earliest date on record by which four named tropical storms formed (Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis formed before July 5)
The earliest date on record by which two category 4 hurricanes occurred (Dennis formed July 4-7; Emily formed July 10-16)
The most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (Wilma, central barometric pressure of 882 mBar)
Three of the six most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (Katrina, Rita, Wilma; This is the first time three category 5 hurricanes have ever been recorded in the same year in the Atlantic basin)
The most destructive hurricane in US history (Katrina); Note that at the time of this writing, Wilma has yet to make landfall in the US “
http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm#4

It is the first time three Category 5 Hurricanes have been recorded [the ever is redundant] in the same year [hurricane season] in the Atlantic basin. However, I don’t wish to claim increasing frequency. That is not evidenced.

I don’t have access to the data to know if the number of cyclones reaching higher on the scale through their life is increasing through time, it may only be a oncer.

The ‘news’ only provides us with the titillation of the possible extreme, hence the interest in Wilma, and access to research seems to be restricted.

In terms of overall hurricane activity (number and intensity of storms), the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season has been the most active season on record with some 5 weeks remaining in the season. It will be interesting if it also breaks late records.

And what of the previous season.

“The National Hurricane Center predicted that the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season would see above normal tropical storm activity, with 12-15 named storms, 7 reaching hurricane strength. This prediction was close but conservative, as there were 15 named storms and 9 hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center described this number of events as “well above-normal activity.”

The number of hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. (four: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) was also above normal. Monetary damages from these events exceeded $40 billion and were concentrated in Florida, which had never before experienced more than three hurricanes in a single season.”

http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm#4

If 2004 was “well above normal” what was 2005?

And what are the researchers predicting, a further growth against the background of increasing sea surface temperatures as a result of climate change

Impact of CO2 -Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation:

Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization

THOMAS R. KNUTSON

NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

ROBERT E. TULEYA

Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia

(Manuscript received 12 December 2003, in final form 24 March 2004)

ABSTRACT

Previous studies have found that idealized hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO2 conditions, are more intense and have higher precipitation rates than under present-day conditions. The present study explores the sensitivity of this result to the choice of climate model used to define the CO2 -warmed environment and to the

choice of convective parameterization used in the nested regional model that simulates the hurricanes. Approximately 1300 five-day idealized simulations are performed using a higher-resolution version of the GFDL hurricane prediction system (grid spacing as fine as 9 km, with 42 levels). All storms were embedded in a uniform

5 m s 21 easterly background flow. The large-scale thermodynamic boundary conditions for the experiments—atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles and SSTs—are derived from nine different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP21) climate models. The CO2 -induced SST changes from the global climate models, based on 80-yr linear trends from 11% yr 21 CO2 increase experiments, range from about 10.88 to 12.48C in the three tropical storm basins studied. Four different moist convection parameterizations are tested in the hurricane model, including the use of no convective parameterization in the highest resolution inner grid. Nearly all combinations of climate model boundary conditions and hurricane model convection schemes show a CO2 –induced increase in both storm intensity and near-storm precipitation rates. The aggregate results, averaged across all experiments, indicate a 14% increase in central pressure fall, a 6% increase in maximum surface wind speed, and an 18% increase in average precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm center. The fractional change in precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of convective parameterization than is the fractional change of intensity. Current hurricane potential intensity theories, applied to the climate model environments, yield an average increase of intensity (pressure fall) of 8% (Emanuel) to 16% (Holland) for the high-CO2 environments. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is 21% higher on average in the high-CO2 environments. One implication of the results is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse gas–induced warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms.
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf

Perhaps decision makers will pay attention. However for there to be success in taking action the community needs to agree with those decision makers and the decision makers need to see that agreement. Otherwise the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will follow a path of deferring the costs and thus the possibility of failure to limit climate change, to future generations, where the greater costs could again defer action thus increasing the possibility of massive climate change.

Media does not seem to be taking a serous approach to changing our behaviours, perhaps afraid of the reaction of advertisers.

OSLO, Norway (Reuters). Greenland’s ice cap has thickened slightly in recent years despite wide predictions of a thaw triggered by global warming, a team of scientists said on Thursday.

The 9,842-feet thick ice cap is a key concern in debates about climate change because a total melt would raise world sea levels by about 7 meters. And a runaway thaw might slow the Gulf Stream that keeps the North Atlantic region warm.

But satellite measurements showed that more snowfall was falling and thickening the ice cap, especially at high altitudes, according to the report in the journal Science.

Glaciers at sea level have been retreating fast because of a warming climate, making many other scientists believe the entire ice cap was thinning.

“The overall ice thickness changes are … approximately plus 1.9 inches a year or 21.26 inches over 11 years,” according to the experts at Norwegian, Russian and U.S. institutes led by Ola Johannessen at the Mohn Sverdrup center for Global Ocean Studies and Operational Oceanography in Norway.

However, they said that the thickening seemed consistent with theories of global warming, blamed by most experts on a build-up of heat-trapping gases from burning fossil fuels in power plants, factories and cars.

The above, whilst not denying consistency of the evidence for climate change places it after what some would see as evidence for the ‘theory’ being wrong were they only skimming the news.

Bonham and I may never agree on the likelihood of climate change leading castrophic events such as more intense cyclones. Also both us, by our mortality, may avoid any feeling of responsibility for advocating a wrong course or remaining dispassionate. I will not feel embarrassed though, as long as the evidence for premillennial to the full millennial event remains strong.

Bonham also takes exception at my ignoring his disclaimer. I am not seeking an agreement that climate change is occurring or a denial of being in a particular camp. I am seeking action, from the personal to the political, to limit the impact.

Some of the best European advice recommends immediate action, partly because of its lower cost to gain results and partly because of the unknowns of continuing along the present course of no or limited reductions.

Joining in that ‘European’ course are many US states including the Republican Governator of California against the Republican deniers who hold sway over Washington economy. Some 20% of the states are acting on their own to introduce schemes to reduce carbon emissions.

Most Australian states wish to have access to the carbon trading markets too, although some think these may be largely venal and practically ineffective.

Business is taking greater interest and investors are considering the implications for return on a world with a climate of increasing extremes in weather events against a background of higher temperatures and carbon.

BBing on the 16th of October interviewed Hugh Morgan, well known for his climate change scepticism. He dissembled. Perhaps he was toying with the reporter, perhaps he is changing is opinion.

The use of popular events to draw attention to trends, in this case in the climate, is validated in the Tasmanian Times by the mainstream media’s use of it all the time [as in the above Reuters report]. One could argue they use to create trends in opinion.

In answer to the insurers’ comment, the reinsurers are recording more frequent events on which they have to pay.

My disclaimer

I welcome the criticism of any data I present and will do my best to respond, however, I do not have access to reams of peer reviewed material and can only support my case with the limited material available on the net.

I look forward to data refuting my assertions on the trend of increasing intensity for cyclones.

phill Parsons is enjoying the rain, forecasts of its decline appearing unlikely, but predicted by some of the climate change modellers. How much of the $21billion cost of the cable is to be attributed to climate changes.