Antony Green’s Federal Election Preview – Tasmania

At the 2010 federal election the Greens primary vote in Tasmania was 16.8% – up from 13.5% in 2007. In 2010 Labor’s vote held up (44.0%) and returned 4 of the 5 electorates to the ALP.

[b]Antony Green[/b] has previewed the trends for Tasmania…

On paper Labor’s two-party preferred margin in [b]DENISON[/b] is 15.8%, but Labor’s low-profile 2010 candidate Jonathan Jackson polled only 35.8% first preference support, giving Independent Andrew Wilkie the opportunity to leap-frog from 21.3% and third place to claim a narrow victory.

He may be rewarded by Hobart voters for attracting the Federal pork-barrel to Hobart rather than its traditional destination in Bass and Braddon. With the electorate including some of the strongest pockets of Green support in the country, Denison is a seat the Liberals are highly unlikely to win, so lying low and leaving Wilkie to battle Labor is probably the party’s best strategy. Denison is the Tasmanian electorate where the Liberal Party was tardiest in announcing its candidate.

While the Greens have no seats to lose in the House at the election, and seem unlikely to lose their Tasmanian Senate seat, there is a pattern from Tasmanian politics being replayed federally in 2013. In 2013 fate finds Christine Milne again leading the Greens in succession to Bob Brown, and polls indicate the party is again likely to lose votes, both in Tasmania and across the country.

The Rudd government’s minority status means it must gain seats to hold on to office. It will be tough for Labor to hold its four current Tasmanian seats, especially [b]BASS[/b] and [b]BRADDON[/b]. In such a finely balanced House of Representatives, Labor will find it tough to compensate elsewhere for any seats lost in Tasmania.

New Labor candidate in [b]BASS[/b] Geoff Lyons was easily elected in 2010 (6.7% margin), but faces a tougher test in 2013 against Liberal Andrew Nikolic.

Labor’s Sid Sidebottom in [b]BRADDON[/b] (7.5% margin) has tasted defeat before, first elected in 1998, defeat in 2004 but re-elected in 2007 and 2010. He faces a strong opponent in Liberal Brett Whiteley, a popular state MP who found himself defeated by a more popular and bigger spending Liberal candidate at the 2010 state election.

Safer for Labor is [b]LYONS[/b] (12.3% margin), where the larger than life character of Dick Adams is likely to overcome all but the most dramatic of swings. Lyons has had only three sitting members in the last 70 years, each one of them a local character.

[b]FRANKLIN[/b] (10.8% margin) has been held by Labor’s Julie Collins since the retirement of the popular Harry Quick in 2007, and the seat is likely to see a strong contest.

From:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-10/federal-election-preview-tasmania/4781580

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• Poll latest, ABC: PM Kevin Rudd’s popularity falls to lowest level in Newspoll figures