Andrew Wilkie: The Crikey chronicles. Labor polls woe

• Crikey, Thursday, August 15: Denison: this is one seat the major parties might not win

“Independent” seems to be a dirty word after the experiment of the 43rd Parliament, and most of them are on the way out. But there’s one who’s on track to retain his seat — and there’s a chance he might hold the balance of power again.

That would be interesting, because Andrew Wilkie swears he will do no deal with either major party ( TT here: Andrew Wilkie: Focus on the public interest, not grubby preference deals )  — not even on confidence or supply — and both major parties swear they will do no deals with anyone to form minority government.

We could be headed for a sulky stand-off in Parliament House.

The preference gods seem to be smiling on Wilkie, who holds the Hobart seat of Denison. While preference deals are still being negotiated, some senior Liberals in Tasmania have told Crikey they’re pushing to put him ahead of Labor.

With a solid primary vote in the polls, Wilkie is likely heading for a win on September 7.

That would make him one of the few crossbenchers left standing as others leave graciously (or not so graciously). Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Tony Crook have quit, while Craig Thomson and Peter Slipper seem doomed.

Adam Bandt faces a tough task in Melbourne with the Liberals preferencing him last, although Bob Katter is certain to survive. The high-water mark of eight crossbenchers this term will probably recede to two or three.

Could they hold the balance of power again? On current polls the Liberals are ahead nationally, but they could fall short of a majority. It’s unlikely but possible.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott recently declared ( http://tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9383/Statement-on-preferences.aspx ): “Under no circumstances will I allow the Coalition to enter into a minority government arrangement.” Perhaps Malcolm Turnbull as leader would?

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd yesterday pledged ( http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-14/kevin-rudd-rules-out-deals-with-independents-minor-parties/4886352 ) Labor would do no deals and come to no arrangements to form a minority government.

But someone might have to.

Why is Wilkie likely to be returned?

Denison is a quirky seat, and Wilkie was the only MP in 2010 to vault from third place on the primary vote (with 21.3%) to win. Green and Liberal preferences propelled him just ahead of the ALP candidate in this traditionally Labor seat. His margin is 1.2%.

Denison is again atypical in 2013. As Wilkie told Crikey: ”It is probably the only seat in the country where there are four people in play.” He reckons four candidates — himself, Labor, Liberals and the Greens — could each get over 20% of the vote apiece, although Crikey doubts the Greens will.

Read the rest, with full links, Crikey here

• Crikey, Friday, August 16: A day out in Denison, where a familiar face counts for plenty…

Andrew Wilkie darts around the footpath in a suit, fixing up a corflute poster with his face on it. He drills it into a fence while cheerfully fussing thatCrikey may report that he does it ineptly (he doesn’t).

A couple of tradies are watching intently as they sip coffee under a bleak Hobart sky. They jump in their ute and drive off — giving Wilkie a thumbs up and a smile.

Wilkie beams.

And that’s part of the secret to why, as Crikey reported yesterday, this independent candidate is likely to win the seat of Denison in September: an awful lot of people know who he is.

He’s the closest thing Hobart has to razzle dazzle this winter.

A sense of personal connection always helps in politics. Especially in Tasmania, where every airport lounge contains familiar faces, letters to the editor are relentlessly from the same names, and a chilly lunchtime walk around the mall yields 20 faces on high rotation.

“Politics is local and personal,” Wilkie told Crikey over coffee at Salamanca.

Read the full story, with full links, Crikey here ( You can free trial it, so read for free … )

• Andrew Wilkie: A statement regarding asylum seekers Blocking legal avenues to appeal is also wrong. Everyone has the right to access a fair legal hearing under the Australian Constitution. The Coalition plan trying to block the legal rights of asylum seekers smacks of desperation to appear tough on “boat people” instead of a genuine concern about the public interest. The mandatory work-for-the-dole scheme for those found to be genuine refugees is even more galling. Australia has long enjoyed the cultural and economic benefits of refugee arrivals. Waves of refugee immigration have formed the fabric of Australia. We should be promoting pathways into meaningful employment for refugees, not forcing them onto indefinite forced-work welfare with no chance of ever feeling welcome or wanted in Australia.

• ABC: Latest polls show Labor struggling to keep grip on government, here