Newspoll has Labor looking at electoral wipeout at the September 14 federal election

The latest opinion poll shows nearly one in two voters are backing the Coalition, giving it a 16-point lead after preferences.

The Newspoll, published in The Australian newspaper, shows the Coalition’s primary vote is up three points to 49 per cent.

Labor is one point lower at 30 per cent.

After preferences the Coalition has a 16 per cent lead, 58 points to 42.

The poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent.

If the results were replicated on election day with a uniform swing across the country, Labor would lose 35 seats.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s satisfaction rating has fallen 3 per cent to 28 per cent since the last poll a fortnight ago.

Dissatisfaction with her performance has risen from 59 per cent to 62 per cent.

Full story here, including links to Antony Green’s analysis

• Dr Kevin Bonham, June 1: How Common Is A Five-Point Swing In Under Four Months?

Advance Summary

1. The Gillard government now probably needs a swing back in public opinion of around 5% in three and a half months to win the federal election. [Update: After Monday’s polls, it’s even more than that.]

2. A recent article by Simon Jackman draws attention to swings of this magnitude, from one election to the next, being rare events that mainly (not exclusively!) accompany changes of power.

3. It is not correct to infer that swings of this size in a much shorter period are even less probable, because in fact 5-point swings within 16 weeks are commoner than 5-point swings between elections.

4. However, 5-point swings in shorter time periods typically result from temporary factors – leadership and event bounces, honeymoon effects, policy mistakes that are corrected, bad patches etc.

5. Fast swings that have occurred in the leadup to elections have usually washed out of the system partly or entirely by election day.

6. The past history of quick 5-point swings in polling provides no sound basis for belief that even an extreme event such as the S11 attacks or leadership change would save the Government now.

Read the full article and comment on Dr Bonham’s website, here