The tumbrels roll …

Premier Lara Giddings. In the background Deputy Bryan Green

Assuming today’s Mercury story (O’Byrne coy on leadership tilt) story is to be believed, and I do believe it, its about a challenge to Lara Giddings early in the New Year by David O’Byrne it makes the predictions I made 13 months ago (reproduced below) look very good indeed.

As the most important prediction that is after my prediction of Bartlett’s early departure was the rise and rise of O’Byrne until he had the numbers to knock off who ever was Bartlett’s successor.

I first heard the challenge being seriously talked about a couple of months ago but it seems that at the time O’Byrne still was a couple of votes shy of victory. It now seems that Lara’s cuts to health have swung the numbers O’Byrne’s way; at least that’s today’s media story.

Far more likely than savage cuts the real reason is that the cuts just about guarantee a Liberal win and a Liberal majority government after the next state election.

The health cuts have also seen Lara’s support fall within the branches and with the ALP rank and file membership. And as anyone even remotely connected with politics knows there’s nothing like personal survival to motivate a backbencher when it comes to changing his/her allegiances and support for the leadership.

There is another dynamic at work within the Tas ALP and that is the new group of MHRs all of whom were elected with O’Byrne last year and, like their leader, are increasingly eager to get their bottoms on the front bench before the next State election. Interestingly I hear some of the old ALP hands were heard talking up the capacities of some of the new kids on the block at the recent ALP National Conference in Sydney.

Of equal interest is the question: Will Will Hodgman survive for much longer as Liberal leader? My prediction is that his head will also roll, especially if O’Byrne begins to look like he can turn the polls around.

Finally, while Leg Co elections are normally of very little interest to anyone even in Tasmania next year’s May election for the seat of Hobart will be of interest. I believe – with the retirement of Doug Parkinson (HERE), Labor’s long time leader in the Upper House – Labor is vulnerable to a strong challenger and there is one in the shape of the very popular ex Hobart Lord Mayor Rob Valentine.

The Greens are currently calling for nominations from potential candidates for this seat; they even sent me an email on the subject. I feel sure that the Greens will get a substantial vote from West and North Hobart that will affect the final result if there is no clear winner with I would expect most Green preferences flowing to Valentine.

The loss of Hobart to Valentine will significantly change the nature of the upper house; it will see the end of the once powerful ALP block within Council and the emergence of the Leg Co as a house of so called independents.

The loss of Hobart will also mean that ALP legislation will have a far more difficult passge through the upper house as it will no doubt be blocked by strong conservative forces just as it was for most of the post war years; at least until the 1990’s when Labor was able to win several seats and gain a solid block vote to counter what were the last remnants of the once all-powerful landed Tories.

What Lara Giddings, MP, Premier, said:

Wednesday, 14 December 2011

Leadership speculation dismissed

The Premier, Lara Giddings, today dismissed the leadership speculation being pedalled by a handful of disgruntled union leaders and other opponents of the State Government s responsible Budget strategies.

I met with David O Byrne this morning and he has assured me there is no challenge for the leadership, Ms Giddings said.

The Parliamentary Labor Party is unified as a team and determined to deliver stable and responsible Government.

Make no mistake; this speculation is being driven by a handful of faceless men in their latest attack on Government spending cuts and it will be gleefully seized upon by our political opponents.

The Liberal Party are the only winners from this kind of destabilisation.

I will not give in to those who want to divert me from doing what is right for Tasmania.

Tasmanians expect and deserve strong leadership and that is what I will continue to deliver.

Labor has a proud history of financial management and for making the strong decisions which have helped shape our state and our nation s future.

I will not backflip or waver on doing what is needed to stay out of debt and return Tasmania s economy to a sustainable position in the face of the ongoing impact of the Global Financial Crisis.

The underlying financial problem we face will not go away with a change of leader and it will not go away with a change of Government.

The fundamental fact remains that we are spending more than we are earning and if that continues, Tasmania will quickly end up in net debt.

We saw in the 1990s what that meant for this State, and we are seeing around the world at the moment what happens when governments from Greece to the USA don t keep their spending under control in these difficult times.

This is not a task that any of us in Government relishes, but it is absolutely necessary if we are to build a strong Tasmania for the future.

It is important to recognise that we have already made strong progress towards our savings goals and the hard work we have done this year is starting to pay off through increased business investment, more jobs and a boost in consumer confidence, Ms Giddings said.

Bazzabee, 31/X/10: A Scary Halloween Tale for Big Boys & Girls

Once upon a time there was a man who added 1 and 1 together and got two and the two were Chris Brown HACSU and Kevin Harkins CEPU and the two men created a ticket to take control of the Tasmanian Left and then the ALP in Tasmania. The two men needed a smiling little elf to help them. And so the two became three or was it that it always had been three and the little elf had been in charge all the time”? “I wonder what do you think boys and girls”?

Here is what I see happening or should I say slowly becoming apparent, the ticket by the two unions both of whom are moving closer and closer at the National and Tas level to the Greens have taken a few minor prizes and scalps so far.

First, HACSU’s needed to gain a base in the ALP and so they rejoined the Left faction; this return came after almost two decades in the wilderness and was pushed by Harkins with background help and support by David O’Byrne. O’Byrne had recently returned his union back into the Left fold after a split had occurred on Senate preselections (what else).

Then HACSU returns to the ALP fold; that happened about two years ago almost within days the two unions used their combined new strength to put Tim Jacobson on the ALP Admin Committee. Jacobson later pays his dues (last May) and runs and loses, as he knew he would, for the Upper House in Glenorchy.

Unsurprisingly O’Byrne is elected at the March State election and is immediately promoted to cabinet and has workplace relations as part of his responsibilities, which gives him almost daily contact with Unions Tas. NB. Before joining and then leading the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union (LHMU) O’Byrne had worked for HACSU.

Interested observers who want to know more about what the group is up to probably need look no further than the next couple of ALP State Conferences. It will begin with their taking control of the numbers on the Admin and taking the senior roles on Admin.

The long-term goal (State) O’Byrne challenges the Premier and wins becoming Premier and giving the two unionists control of the party, the unions and the executive. HACSU’s longstanding relationships with the Greens will see a closer tie between the two parties. The white-anting of David Bartlett has already begun and will get worse although who will lead after all this is as yet unclear it is unlikely to be David O’Byrne, or his sister but it will happen.

If I am correct and I would bet that I am at least on track, there will be a second contest/fight for the deputy premier’s job. For several years Lara Giddings has been a faithful comrade and friend of David O’Byrne’s (and was a member of his union) will want to retain her job. She knows that the numbers are not and will not be there for her own run at the top job. It would not stretch the bounds of anyone’s intelligence if Lara were the one to undermine her current boss. It has long been known that Lara has long held the ambition of becoming Tasmania’s first female premier. The Lara scenario would allow David O’Byrne to appear as the savior of the party and people’s white knight. Abracadabra O’Byrne’s off to see the governor.

One possible problem might be Brian Green will also want his old job back having been apparently rehabilitated by his high personal vote in March. Green is, I hear, is quietly taking the soundings. The return to Tasmania of Greens old mate & mentor David Price (Green and Price have a long history strong and relationship with the metal workers). Price recently started work as the senior advisor to the new member for Bass Geoff Lyons).

How this new/old political dynamic will affect the big game is hard to guess but a closer relationship between the Right and the O’Byrne controlled Left is a very real possibility.

Rumour has it that David Price who was very much on the nose after the Brian Green trials, who can forget Price’s Allan Bond like memory problems, got his new job with the help of the Right’s leading Longford based family having received no help from his old comrades on the Left. This help/favour will at sometime require repayment as the Polleys don’t do freebees and both have long memories and know how to exercise patience.

It is possible that David Price could become the link between the two factions and a stumbling block although his history is more that of a pragmatic facilitator and not a destroyer. I would expect David Price if he becomes a player would take on the role of Kingmaker, a role he has enjoyed in the past. However whatever Price decides on, one thing is certain: he will be the real long-term beneficiary of any help he provided to either side.

A second long game could see Kevin Harkins attempt at a rebirth worthy of an American Christian politician; there is no doubt that he continues to hold ambitions of high office. Harkins isn’t getting any younger and has only one more shot left in his bag; therefore this will see him turn to the Senate. Rudd, his arch-enemy has gone; will Julia let him in? So how will he get his backside on one of Canberra’s red leather seats? There are as I see it two ways, he will use his numbers to knock of a sitting Senator; my guess would be the Right’s Catryna Bilyk. Or he could call in a few favors, twist a few arms and simply replace Nick Sherry (ex LHMU). Sherry is expected by colleagues in Canberra to retire at the next election; his career has started to go backwards; he failed to become deputy treasurer after the August election.

Of course I could be wrong – everyone will live happily ever after and the naughty little elf will disappear just like Rumpelstiltskin.

David O’Byrne, MP

Minister for Economic Development

Saturday, 17 December 2011

Leadership Speculation Wrong and Misguided

David O’Byrne today repeated his position on the Labor Party leadership, in response to some ongoing media speculation.
“As I’ve made clear in my media interviews this week, there is no leadership challenge. There never was a challenge,” Mr O’Byrne said.

“I will not be challenging Lara Giddings for the leadership of the Labor Party. She has my full support to lead us to the next election.

“I’m a team player. As a Government, we’re working hard together, in difficult circumstances, to do the best thing for the Tasmanian community,” he said.