Mill: How many jobs will be lost? Fresh forests protests. Gunns: another mill closed

Introduction

Despite the majority of Tasmanians in poll after poll saying that they are against the proposed Gunns pulp mill, defenders maintain their continued support by pointing to the number of jobs that will be created for Tasmanians. But is their reasoning valid? Just how many jobs will be created and for how long? How many of these will be for local people rather than imported workers from overseas? And, importantly, how many current jobs will be lost?

How many jobs from the proposed pulp mill?
In a review of the media over 2008 and 2009 I found sixteen different estimates ranging from 292 [1] to 16000 [2]. Depending on who is talking and the kind of jobs they are talking about, there are either 292, 300, 900, 1000, 1044, 1250, 1600, 1617, 2000, 2500, 2900, 3000, 3400, 3500, 8000, or 16000 new jobs from the pulp mill. Some detailed research was required.

This discussion will look only at the differing numbers of direct jobs put forward, not the indirect jobs. This is because of untested assumptions and fudge factors that inform rubbery claims of indirect jobs arising from the project. The discussion will look at the number of new jobs for Tasmanians as opposed to ‘outsiders’. It goes on to compare new pulp mill jobs with those in tourism and fishing that many within those industries say will be lost.

Jobs breakdown
It is helpful to look at the claimed numbers of new jobs in construction, jobs in operating the mill, and jobs in the forests supplying wood. It is also helpful to look at job numbers from more credible sources such as consultant reports versus the numbers quoted by a coterie of ‘spin merchants’.

Here are the more credible sources of job numbers in each phase of the project that I could find. For construction, Gunns advised the George Town Council in January 2008 that it will employ 1250 workers at the peak of activity [3] This was revised down from the previous estimate of 3000 workers published earlier. This smaller number (1250) appears more credible because it was contained in a confidential letter to a pro-mill council that was wrestling with the issue of housing thousands of construction workers. The story broke in the Mercury three months later.

For the operational phase, the State Government-appointed consultant ITS Global reported that “Gunns expects to employ 292 workers at the site” [4]. This figure also appears in Gunns’ IIS.

See Figure 1, number of direct jobs in construction and operation of the proposed pulp mill.

http://tapvision.info/sites/default/files/Fig%201%20Reduced.jpg

Rubbery numbers
What about all the other job numbers quoted in the media? In January 2009, an unidentified Gunns spokesman said “3000 new jobs” [5] will be created but this appears to be a rehash of outdated information published 12 months earlier. In June 2009, Federal Minister Tony Burke said, “Construction … will create 8000 direct and indirect jobs” [6]. In April 09, Gunns spokesman Matt Horan is quoted as saying it “will create 2000 (jobs) just in construction and about 16,000 in the future” [7].

These are rubbery numbers conflate direct employment numbers with indirect jobs, and short-term jobs at the peak construction time with ongoing jobs. This discussion remains focussed on the more accurately measurable direct employment numbers for the long term. The Visy pulp and paper mill near Tumut, NSW uses a multiplier of three times the number of direct jobs to estimate the number of indirect jobs. On that basis, there will be about 880 positions servicing Gunns’ planned pulp mill.

Rubbery job numbers in the pulp industry are not a purely Tasmanian phenomenon. Independent MLC Ruth Forrest went on a fact-finding visit to the Nueva Aldea Mill in Chile. Her minority report said that, “The company stated that the mill and associated operations provide 10,000 jobs within the area when considering all operations including forestry. However, people in two surrounding villages claim that there are very few locals currently employed at the mill.” [8] And in a thorough review of the Bahia pulp mill in Brazil, researchers concluded with typical academic reserve that “when pulp mill construction is involved, there exists a tendency to overestimate the number of jobs created.” [9]

How many direct jobs specifically for Tasmanians and the under-skilled?
Only some of the new jobs will be won by Tasmanian workers. It is worth examining how many jobs of the 292 in operations and 1250 in construction might be available to Tasmanians.

Construction jobs
During the 30-month construction phase, Gunns expects only 40% of the 1250 building jobs or 500 will be Tasmanian [10]; the rest of the workforce will be outsiders from overseas and the mainland.

However, the prospect of even 500 Tasmanians in the construction workforce looks bleak. University of Tasmania lecturer Alex Wadsley in May 2008 said, “Anybody who is to work on the construction of the pulp mill is already well employed somewhere else. So when you talk about new jobs, those jobs are going to have to leave other businesses in order to get the work for building the pulp mill” [11]. In addition, ITS Global stated that “Skills required for construction overlap quite heavily with those in shortest supply” [12]. Senator Christine Milne echoed those points with her statement that “ Many of those (construction) jobs would be blow-in jobs as skilled teams fly in from overseas” [13]. So 500 local jobs looks optimistic.

The actual length of employment of a worker with specific skills is less than the total construction period. Gunns’ IIS shows that the number of construction jobs will rise from zero, to a peak about two thirds through the project, and then tail off to zero. Jobs peak sector by sector – first is civil, then mechanical, with piping, electrical and instrumentation peaking together at the end of construction. [14]

Operating jobs
What of employment during the operating phase? The statement in Gunns IIS that 234 or 80% of the 292 jobs could be filled by Tasmanians [15] looks wishful thinking. Industry analyst Robert Eastment believes that “a lack of training means Tasmanians will find it harder to get work once the $2 billion mill is operating” [16]. Because of a shortage of skills in Tasmania, Gunns say that 60% of the 292 operational jobs will require additional training [17]. The job prospects of under-skilled Tasmanians look bleaker when compared with the more than 40,000 experienced Canadian pulp workers laid off before 2006 and the tens of thousands since [18]. Job-ready Canadians have already enquired about work in Gunns’ mill.

Pulp mills overseas might provide some guide as to real employment figures for locals. In Brazil, the fully functioning $1.5billion Veracel pulp mill is reported to “employ only 741 people in its factory and plantations. The workers at Veracel are highly qualified. No less than 42% … have university degrees” [19]. The local Brazilian people who generally have fewer qualifications are complaining bitterly that these jobs do not benefit people from the region. There is no evidence to say that the situation in Tasmania will be any different from Brazil.

So far, the tally of direct jobs for Tasmanians is fewer than 500 for two and half years in construction, plus a possible 234 in operations for the 24-year life of the project. See Figure 2, number of direct Tasmanian jobs (shaded) and overseas and interstate jobs in construction and operation of the proposed pulp mill. This looks a lot less than the many thousands spruiked by former Minister Tony Burke and Gunns’ media spokesman Matt Horan. http://tapvision.info/sites/default/files/Fig%202%20Reduced.jpg
Job losses from existing industries displaced by the pulp mill
The pulp mill will ‘crowd out’ existing Tasmanian businesses and quash potential developments according to Wells Economic Analysis [20]. It locks the State into an undifferentiated bulk commodity market at the expense of businesses based on scarce, unique and distinctive attributes of Tasmania.

In its benefits-only study, ITS Global, the State government consultant, suggests that a pulp mill can co-exist with Tasmania’s clean green image and therefore that those who run tourism and fishing businesses are wrong about losing their jobs (p. 5). It provides no supporting evidence for this statement; commonsense shows that just one event releasing dioxin into our fishing waters will devastate our fishing industry. The potential negative impacts on current industries are still being avoided by the Commonwealth and Tasmanian governments.

The only details available on the negative impacts come from the economic study commissioned by the Tasmanian Round Table for Sustainable Industries Project 2007 [21] (TRTSI). TRTSI reports that the medium level risks to Tasmania’s fishing industry could cost the industry “700 job losses over the life of the project”(p.4). In addition, “the risk to Tasmania’s tourist industry … will cost … 1044 jobs” (p.4).

Direct jobs
TRTSI numbers include both direct and indirect jobs and provide an unequal comparison with the number of direct jobs in the pulp mill. Reworking the numbers using direct employment figures and the TRTSI methodology, the medium level risks to Tasmania’s fishing industry could cost the industry 64 direct jobs and a possible 262 direct jobs [22] from a pollution event occurring during the life of the project.

Such an event is illustrated by river pollution from the industrial accident causing a gaseous explosion in the piping of the new Botnia pulp mill in Fray Bento, Uruguay on 27 February 2009. This “modern mill is similar to Tasmania’s” [23] and Andritz who supplied all the major production systems to the Botnia pulp mill, is also involved in Gunns’ proposed mill.

In the growing Tasmanian tourism industry, the medium level risks using reworked numbers could cost 818 direct jobs [24]. These direct job losses in tourism appear conservative as the 2009 Tasmanian Visitor Survey showed a surprisingly strong up-trend and that “900 000 tourists spent $1.45billion in Tasmania” for the year to June [25]. Job losses in other threatened industries such as vineyards from foul gases and agriculture from expanding plantations were not included in the TRTSI report.

It is clear that the loss of 64 direct jobs on the fishing boats and 818 jobs in accommodation, on tours and the like, from sullying Tasmania’s clean brand exceeds those promised by pulp mill proponents.

How many jobs for how long?
I compared the total amount of work lost or gained by Tasmanians over the 24 year life of the mill by using ‘job-years’. One person working for one year equals one job-year. In construction of the mill, the number of jobs rises steadily from zero to its peak then falls back to zero. Gunns’ mill would provide direct work to Tasmanians equivalent to 625 job-years (500 jobs x 2.5 years x about 0.5) in construction and 5616 job years (234 jobs x 24 years) in operations for a grand total of 6241 job-years.

Over the 24-year period, the work in tourism and fishing that will disappear is equivalent to 21168 job-years (882×24) or 3.4 times more than new Tasmanian jobs in a pulp mill. See Figure 3, number of direct Tasmanian jobs x years lost in fishing and tourism compared to those gained from the proposed pulp mill. This number will grow when job losses from other sensitive industries are calculated.
http://tapvision.info/sites/default/files/Jobyears%20Fig%203%20Revised.jpg

Conclusion
The displacement of existing industries by a pulp industry and net loss of around three Tasmanian job-years for every one gained has so far remained hidden from public debate, as the Parliamentary fast track assessment studied only the benefits of the mill and excluded the costs.

A large number of jobs in tourism, wine growing, fishing, organic foods and other businesses stand to be lost should the pulp mill proceed; many have already been lost as current businesses are unable to invest or to plan for the future while the dark shadow of the planned pulp mill hangs over them.

Sources

1. ITS Global, Review of the Social and Economic Benefits of the Gunns Limited Pulp Mill Project June 26 2007.
2. Matt Horan, Gunns spokesman, Examiner 19-4-09.
3. Mercury, 21-3-08.
4. ITS Global, ibid p. 55.
5. Examiner, 9-1-09.
6. Ministerial Statement, June 2009.
7. Examiner, 19-4-09.
8. Forrest, R. MLC (2007) Report by Ruth Forrest MLC following visit to Nueva Aldea Mil in Chile, South America.
9. Ivonete Gonçalves de Souza and João Luiz Monti Bahia Pulp S.A. (Brazil) http://www.pulpmillwatch.org/companies/bahia-pulp-s.a/.
10. ITS Global, ibid p.64.
11. Examiner 21-5-08.
12. ITS Global, ibid p 68.
13. www.newmatilda.com, 2-3-09.
14. IIS Part 5.4.1, p. 157 report by Jacko Poyry.
15. Gunns’ IIS p.29.
16. ABC Radio, 20-3-08.
17. Gunns IIS Section 3.1.1.1, p 17.
18. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/oct2006/fore-o31.shtml
19. http://www.pulpmillwatch.org/news/articles/international-campaign-against-stora-enso.html&mod11_1=print, July 08.
20. Tasmanian Round Table for Sustainable Industries Project: is the proposed pulp mill sustainable? August 2007, p.19. www.lec.org.au.
21. TRTSI ibid.
22. Based on the proportion of direct to indirect jobs reported in Valadkhani 2003, Using Input-Output Analysis to Identify Australia’s High Employment Generating Industries. http://ro.uow.edu.au/commpapers/392
23. Comment by pro-mill commentator Alan Ashbarry http://tasmaniapulpmill.info/briefing_papers.
24. Based on the proportion of direct to indirect jobs reported in – Tourism and Transport Forum industry update, April 2009.
25. Examiner, 17-9-09.

Download:
Jobs_-_gains_and_losses_from_pulp_mill_for_TT.doc

Activists fear for Tasmanian forest moratorium. State-wide forest action

PRESS CONFERENCE TODAY PARLIAMENT LAWNS 12 NOON

Tasmanian forest activists have halted logging and roading operations at two locations in the south of the state today, while a third group perform street theatre in Launceston’s Mall to highlight the continued logging of ancient forests in Tasmania.

“On the 15 December, Federal Environment Minister Tony Burke announced that logging in Tasmania’s High Conservation Value forests would end in 90 days. Yet, on-the-ground surveys indicate that Forestry Tasmania is constructing new roads into key areas of HCV forest and opening new clearfells across the state during the phase out period” said Huon Valley Environment Centre’s Jenny Weber.

Huon Valley Environment Centre activists have halted the construction of a new road into High Conservation Value forests in the Esperence area, close to Adamson’s Peak and the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA). A person is in a tree sit, while a number of protesters are at the forest.

In the Counsel area, activists from Still Wild Still Threatened halted logging operations in coupe CO003A, an area of diverse pristine forest contiguous with the TWWHA.

“Why is Forestry Tasmania spending more taxpayers money to lock in new logging around the state when industry, environmentalists and all levels of Government have committed to an end to logging in just six weeks time?” said Jenny Weber.

“Activists have re-entered the forest today to highlight this double-handed strategy. Our role is to advocate for the full and immediate protection of ancient forests. We are standing up to highlight the loss of valuable ecosystems every day in Tasmania,” said Still Wild Still Threatened Spokesperson Lily Leahy.

STOP NEW ROADING INTO HCV FORESTS
Nick McKim MP
Greens Leader

The Tasmanian Greens today called for any new forestry roading into high conservation value native forests to cease, following reports that such operations were underway in the State’s southern forests.

Greens Leader Nick McKim MP said that the 90 days leading up to the formal implementation of the moratorium on forestry activities in high value conservation forests was understood by many to provide a transition period for those activities to wind down, and was not intended to be a last-minute dash to access more forest areas.

“Much goodwill and good faith was invested in the development of the Forest Principles, and it is imperative that the good faith is maintained,” Mr McKim said.

“Any new roading into High value Conservation forests coupes should not be proceeded with in light of the fact that these areas will be covered by the agreed moratorium.”

“It was the understanding of many in the community that the moratorium transition period was to serve as a period to wind down and prepare for the moratorium, and definitely not as a green light to use that window to instigate new roading or logging operations into contentious areas.”

“Roading activity by Forestry Tasmania in any contentious or recognised High Conservation Value forests is not in the spirit of the current Forest Principles Agreement process and should cease.”

Monday, PM, Huon Valley Environment Centre:
31 Jan 2011

Media Release

Peaceful Tasmanian Forest Protests Call for forest protection

“Today’s forest protests in the Esperance and Counsel Areas ended peacefully this afternoon. Conservation groups took a stand in the forests of southern Tasmania today to bring attention to their fears for the moratorium being realised in six weeks. We made a stand today for the endangered species and the ecologically valuable forests that are being lost every day despite agreement by industry, environmentalists and the government to protect these ancient ecosystems,” Huon Valley Environment Centre’s Jenny Weber said.

“Still Wild Still Threatened held a forest protest in the tall eucalyptus forests of the Counsel region, in western Tasmania. In the Counsel area, forest activists halted work for the day, and came down from their tree sit perch, after the police left late this afternoon and no arrests were made,” Still Wild Still Threatened Spokesperson Lily Leahey said.

“Huon Valley Environment Centre held a forest protest in the far south of Tasmania at Esperance, where a new road is being built to access ancient forest. Forest activists removed their tree sit this afternoon after Forestry Tasmania contractors walked 2km past the activist’s roadblock and continued to build a logging road in high conservation value forests,” Huon Valley Environment Centre’s Jenny Weber said.

Another Gunns closure:

1 February 2011

Gunns to close WA Sawmill Operation

Please refer to link below for the full announcement:

http://www.gunns.com.au/Content/uploads/documents/ASX%20RELEASE%20-%202011%2001%2031%20-%20Gunns%20to%20close%20WA%20sawmilling%20operation.pdf

Greg L’Estrange, Managing Director