Labor: Plot and Counter Plot

Plot and counter plot are not uncommon in politics although to what end is usually left to others and history to gauge.

That many within the Labor Party are unhappy with the present power sharing is hardly a secret and there are those who would see a return to a clear two party power structure as not only their own preference but also essential to the long term economic stability of Tasmania and for some their own long term advancement to high office. Others might see the new power sharing as an opportunity to challenge the relationship and gain power.

Recent moves and counter moves within the Tasmanian Branch of the ALP are, I am told, the first steps and counter steps to secure the new arrangements or depending on one’s beliefs a last ditch fight for the restoration of the old order.

It is now sometime since the Health and Community Services Union (HACSU) was convinced to return to the ALP fold; they did so after almost two decades in the Labor wilderness. Their re-entry was encouraged and facilitated by Kevin Harkins of the Communication Electrical and Plumbing Union (CEPTU) with, as I understand it, background help and support by David O’Byrne who was at the time the Tasmanian Secretary of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union (LHMU).

O’Byrne had recently returned his union to the Left fold after a split on Senate pre-selections. Before joining and then leading the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union (LHMU) O’Byrne had worked for HACSU.

A loose amalgamation of the CEPTU, HACSU and the LHMU gave the group control of the Left faction and with this control the numbers to guarantee pre-selections and influence over sitting Left-aligned members. The Left is now the dominant faction at the State Conference and will no doubt use its new-found numbers to take control of the party at many levels. The O’Byrne group again flexed its muscles during the lead up to the Federal election when the group audaciously attempted to put Kevin Harkins on the Tasmanian Senate ticket; this move was quickly squashed by the ALP National Executive.

The HACSU return to the ALP fold had quickly paid a dividend … HACSU’s Tim Jacobson was catapulted onto the ALP Admin Committee.

Unsurprisingly, David O’Byrne was elected at the March State election and was immediately promoted to Cabinet and has work place relations as part of his responsibilities, which gives him almost daily contact with Unions Tasmania, which became a target for the Harkins’ lead group.

The increasingly loud whispers from within the ALP are that the long-term goal for David O’Byrne is to become Premier before the next State election. The white-anting of Premier David Bartlett has already begun inside the party and will get worse although who will lead this unpleasant process is as yet unclear; but it will happen, unless of course someone does something to stop it.

How this new/old political dynamic will affect the Big Game is hard to guess but a closer relationship between the Right and the non-O’Byrne controlled Left is a very real possibility. Interested observers will be wise to keep a close eye on the member for Longford and his Senator sister in any future Left Right love-ins.

A second long game might see Harkins attempt a rebirth worthy of an American Evangelical; there is no doubt that he continues to hold ambitions of high office. Harkins isn’t getting any younger and has only one more shot left in his bag; therefore this will see him turn to the Senate. Such a move might be easier now that he has been elected as the new Secretary of Unions Tasmania, a position that can help make or break Labor Governments; clearly he has new found leverage with both the state government and the party.

Even if Harkins is a spent force and does not try and get a Senate spot, the next round of ALP pre-selections will be of interest with the Right’s Catrryna Bilyk looking vulnerable to a challenge from a resurgent and dominant Left faction. Or the Left might simply seek to replace Nick Sherry (ex LHMU). Sherry is expected by many to retire at the next Federal election. One thing is certain any deals regarding Senate positions will come at a high price.

But for every plot in politics there is a counter plot and last week the fightback began; Michael Aird’s resignation was, if not strategically planned, at least fortuitous in its timing. The resignation allowed the Premier to have more say through a smaller and more tightly controlled Cabinet. And by placing Lara Giddings as the clear next in line it puts pressure on O’Byrne. O’Byrne has the increasing support of most but not all the new Young Turks who came into Parliament with him in March and one or two old hands who have been overlooked (as they believe).

Power now clearly rests with the Premier and his Deputy. A move this cleaver would have been designed by someone who is astute and an old hand; my guess is that you would have to look no further than Mark Sayer the Premier’s new chief of staff.

Mark Sayer (ex DED as are so many of his senior staff and mates) was a long time member of the Left and was once highly regarded as a safe and steady pair of hands; he is known to have a good political brain.

Sayer was a close friend and former senior advisor to Fran Bladel. Fran has been Lara Giddings’ mentor and sponsor for more than a decade; it was Fran who campaigned so strongly for Lara to replace her in Franklin when she retired.

Bartlett’s Cabinet reshuffle would seem to have promoted David O’Byrne but it also wedged him and his supporters, at least for the time being. The ‘old’ guard is fighting back and with a new tactician advising the Premier and his Deputy the struggle for power has become all the more interesting.

The only thing watchers can be assured of is this struggle for power has a long to go yet.