This seems to be the time of year to make dire predictions about the state of the world, the sustainability of the human race, the planet, etc.
We are becoming security conscious in a wholesale sense, not only about whether we are safe in our workplaces, schools or beds, but whether we can rely on having the basic necessities of life in the future.
This month, the Economist magazine advises that in the next 40 years we will have to produce more food than we did in all of the previous 10,000 years. Yet the pool of arable land is decreasing; and the world’s farmers can’t meet the current demand for food.
If we are to increase production like never before, it is obvious that we need to farm smarter. We also need more clever people to apply their minds to the issue of feeding the world challenging at a time when farmers are getting older and their kids are showing a marked reluctance to take over the family farm.
In Australia, the smartest nation on earth in terms of dryland farming, the national government is reducing research and development into crops and other food. In Tasmania, we’ve seen farmers laden with so much additional regulatory cost that they are rapidly becoming uncompetitive.
Mark Twain was right: “Buy land – they’re not making it any more.”
The Economist was upbeat about institutional investors, such as pension funds, buying into farming and agribusinesses; but we don’t see much evidence of that in Australia.
The pool of superannuation fund money is massive, a huge resource for investing in food technology production. According to APRA, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, total superannuation assets in Australia at June 2013 stood at $1.62 trillion, with $970 billion (that’s $970,000 million) held by superannuation entities and $506 billion by self-managed superannuation funds. That investment money is not flowing to our paddocks.
The Economist’s solution is for money managers to get their hands dirty and find out more about farming and food production. They also say farmers should do more to attract capital, through joint ventures, for example.
Well-known Australian social demographer Bernard Salt issued a recent warning that we had to become more self-sufficient because, who knows, one day Australia could be isolated from the rest of the world by, for instance, war.
He noted that “oil refining, car-making, alumina smelting, whitegoods manufacture and perhaps even steelmaking are processes that can be done more efficiently overseas”.
“Why make refrigerators here for the local market when we can ask the Germans or the Chinese to run their production systems for another week and produce a year’s supply to meet Australian demand? Better for us to focus on things in which we have a competitive advantage, such as agribusiness, mining and lifestyle.”
Of course, he’s right.
However, come the crunch, the first thing we will need is food. The laptop, the ice-making fridge and even the smartphone are of secondary importance.
“We are a resource-rich island nation. If for whatever reason we lost safe sea-lane passage to our suppliers then we would need to be able to sustain our economy entirely from our own resources and skill base. We need some level of self-sufficiency, don’t you think?”
Yes, absolutely spot on.
The scary thing is that neither experts like Mr Salt, nor most of our policy makers, seem to understand the concept of self-sufficiency at its most basic level – ensuring that we have enough food to support our nation. They understand the risks of losing industries like mining, manufacturing and so on. But there is little thought given by anyone to the significant risk we face of becoming food insecure.
Some years ago the Australian government released a National Food Plan green paper that was built on flawed assumptions that included:
Australia has a high level of food security;
food insecurity will primarily be met through increased food production;
the future will look much the same as the past;
farm incomes will be higher when more is produced.
We have to innovate for an agricultural revolution. We have to reverse the trend of declining investment in research, development and extension. Importantly, the Australian community also has to be prepared to reinvest in integrated food, water and energy activities here.
So, before all that can happen, Australian consumers need to recognise the advantages we have and stop taking farmers and the food they produce for granted.
There is one thing you can bet the farm on – and that is that people in other countries will place a high value on the clean, green, safe, quality food produced by our farmers year round.
TFGA chief executive Jan Davis
