"Balance is Appeasement. Fairness is Truth."
Montgomery, Nelson, Pembroke ...
Dr Kevin Bonham, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
04.05.13 4:49 am
Dr Kevin Bonham live comments at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
• 8pm:
Pembroke: CALLED: Vanessa Goodwin (Lib) re-elected on first preferences
Nelson: CALLED: Jim Wilkinson re-elected
Montgomery: CALLED: Leonie Hiscutt (Lib) elected
• 7pm:
Pembroke: Goodwin leading strongly
Nelson: Wilkinson leading strongly
Montgomery: Hiscutt leading Fuller and currently in strong position.
• Rodney Croome: Majority of Tas voters back gay marriage candidates
What is an independent liberal?
Dr Kevin Bonham, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/ First published Thursday April 25
25.04.13 4:59 am
Sam McQuestin, with State Libs Leader Will Hodgman
McQuestin is quoted as claiming “We have the strongest political brand in the state and in the nation and we take very seriously our responsibility to protect that brand”, and as saying the party was “prepared to consider all legal avenues”. They can consider all the avenues they like. They’re all dead ends.
• Dr Bonham expects to have live election-night comments on all three LegCo electorates, from 6 pm 4 May. Details here
Liberty, Abortion and the “Salamanca Declaration”
Dr Kevin Bonham
18.04.13 3:50 am
The Salamanca Declarers, in common with far too many (but by no means all) western Christians, seem to think that “liberty” is some kind of part-time philosophical mistress who they can have a flirty no-commitment ideological fling with whenever they just want to use her for their own satisfaction. The rest of the time they’ll mistreat, criticise, abuse and ignore her without a second thought for her feelings, eager to keep her in her place lest she interfere with their existing (and amusingly, same-sex) philosophical marriage to Jesus/God. Yet they not only expect she will run to their side whenever they need her, they insist on it. Sorry boys (and yes, every signatory to this statement supporting limits on female reproductive rights was male!) but liberty is not that kind of girl.
Nelson Legislative Council polling
Dr Kevin Bonham, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/ First published Wednesday April 10
11.04.13 5:00 am
And this is why the common practice of selective media reporting of unpublished polls is terrible practice. If there are errors in the poll then there is no opportunity for analysts to scrutinise and correct them. At least, journalists who do not have the expertise to check an unpublished poll they are reporting on for themselves should run it past someone who does, but ideally, this silly business of people commissioning polls and showing them to journalists without the poll ever being published should end. Let’s not forget this stupid internal-poll-selective-results media/players game has recently been part of the process of removing an elected Prime Minister during his first term of office - it is not as if this is a trivial issue.
• Yesterday on Tasmanian Times: Public opinion and the Mt Wellington cable car proposal
• Tonight: Legislative Council Seat of Nelson candidate debate
Public opinion and the Mt Wellington cable car proposal
Dr Kevin Bonham
09.04.13 5:00 am
Picture: Grant Dixon
Bold has claimed “without this robust sample size achieved, locals would otherwise likely continue to speculate over public sentiment”, but in fact the sample size provides no reason for anyone to stop speculating. The reason for this is that small sample size is but one of many factors that can impact upon the reliability of an opinion survey, and while too small a sample size means that a survey is unreliable, a large sample size does not demonstrate that a survey can be trusted. The main limitation of Bold’s survey, one that cannot be overcome by pointing to the sample size, is that it is an opt-in poll.
• Earlier on Tasmanian Times ...
Boyce, Wilson, Johnson, Hay/Thorne, Cica ...
Editor
23.03.13 12:23 pm
Rohan Wilson, who won the $5000 Margaret Scott Prize for the best book by a Tasmanian writer with The Roving Party, Katherine Johnson, who won the $5000 UTAS Prize for Best New Unpublished Work by an Emerging Tasmanian Writer with Kubla, and Tasmanian Book Prize winner James Boyce.
Tasmanian Lower House: 25 or 35 Seats?
Dr Kevin Bonham
14.03.13 7:15 am
It is not correct to blame too many problems in Tasmanian politics on the 25-seat system since politics under the 35-seat system was also very turbulent and crisis-prone during its last two decades.
EMRS: Liberals locking in support
Dr Kevin Bonham. First published Tuesday, February 19
20.02.13 5:40 am
EMRS: Liberal 55 Labor 23 (-4) Green 18 (+3) Ind 4 (+1)
Interpretation: Liberal 56 Labor 25 Green 15 Ind 4 (Ind figure depending on candidates)
Outcome “if election was held now”: Liberal majority win (14-16 seats)
LegCo: Pembroke and Nelson Challengers
Dr Kevin Bonham kevinbonham.blogspot.com
29.01.13 3:06 am
Pic: ABC here
In fact the Auditor-General’s findings relating to Ritchie were far from exonerative and the summary by both the Mercury and the Wikipedian in question (who had the hide to revert my edit without even stating a reason!) is grossly misleading. For instance, here is the context of the Wikipedia quote above from the Auditor-General’s report: “Prior to December 2007, the Legislative Council had no formal policies and processes regarding recruitment of staff to work in MLC’s electorate offices. So, it follows that in recommending the recruitment of her mother, Ms Ritchie did not break any rules.”
In other words, Ms Ritchie broke no rules not because the claims were baseless, but because there were no rules to break (at least, there were none at the time she didn’t break them.) The report immediately goes on to harshly criticise Ritchie as follows:
Federal Labor Getting Smashed In Bass
Dr Kevin Bonham. Pic: of Andrew Nikolic
26.01.13 1:14 am
The findings are rather dramatic, with the Liberals’ Andrew Nikolic supposedly leading ...
Uneven Swing to Liberals in Tasmanian State Election Polling
Dr Kevin Bonham, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
21.01.13 2:00 am
An important common factor in all these simulations is that it is very difficult to turn realistic numbers based on recent polling into a scenario in which the Liberal Party doesn’t win outright. As amusing as a parliament with exactly twelve Liberals and Kim Booth (above) in it might be, the Liberals’ polling would have to come down a fair way before we had to take the prospect seriously.
The LegCo’s Claimed Reasons For Rejecting Same-Sex Marriage
Dr Kevin Bonham, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
28.11.12 2:16 am
Adriana Taylor
Possibly Taylor was saying things some other MLCs also thought but were far too cautious to spell out, but her speech deserves at least two Bernardis out of five for blatant wedge material like the following ...
Plus ...
• Legislative Council voting patterns since the last Lower House election
The Compliant Coalitionists: Voting Patterns in the Tasmanian Lower House
Dr Kevin Bonham
19.11.12 4:20 am
The view that the major parties are “Laborials” and agree on nearly everything with the Greens as the real “opposition” is not consistent with any data about voting on the floor of parliament.
Embattled Abbott Thirty-Six Below The Wave
Dr Kevin Bonham, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
14.11.12 6:13 am
Editor: Today we publish for the first time a summary and extracts from psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham’s new specialist psephology blog, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/ . Comments on these observations can be made on Dr Bonham’s website.
‘The Rise Of Non-Consistency And The Departure Of Bonham’
Dr Kevin Bonham. Pic: of Dr Bonham
24.10.12 4:00 am
Lindsay Tuffin As Tasmanian Times readers are aware TT has a Code of Conduct for all contributors (here). Concerned that a Dr Kevin Bonham comment on this article breached that Code, as well as being possibly defamatory, I referred Dr Bonham’s comment to TT’s independent adjudicator. They replied with a lengthy response in which they expressed concerns about its legal standing and outlined several points which may have breached the Code of Conduct. On their recommendation the comment was taken down. The adjudication was forwarded to Dr Bonham. Below we publish Dr Bonham’s response (Comments will not be taken on this thread):
Dr Kevin Bonham
24.10.12 3:51 am
Tasmanian Times psephologist and commenter Dr Kevin Bonham has advised he is leaving the site in a dispute over multiple aspects of moderation of a post he made in reply to an essay by Richard Flanagan, following a complaint by an unknown third party, with other concerns about site moderation being contributing factors. Dr Bonham has submitted detailed reasons for his departure which are currently being assessed for possible legal issues and negotiation with the author. In the meantime he may be found on the following new sites, the first of which will keep readers in touch with his future movements, and the second of which is a temporary home for pseph comment while he decides what site to develop for the future: https://twitter.com/kevinbonham http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
• Jake, of Lutana, in Comments: Everyone will be the poorer for your absence, Dr Bonham. Few psephologists have your knowledge, intellect and objectivity.
• Pilko, in Comments: I think if everyone on this website lightened up a bit more then they’d be happier, others would be happier and TT would be a happier place to inhabit. My comment is directed at myself as much as it is anyone else. I dont think there will ever be a danger that TT becomes superficial & banal. TT is however in danger at times of becoming toxic & destructive to the people who use it. We can be extremely nasty & unforgiving at times looking for redress & justice for other peoples sins. Yet on another day we are guilty of the same sins. I see it all the time on TT and i’m as guilty as anyone. Not one single person on this site isnt guilty of hypocrisy. If you think you arent then thats concerning. Mercy is greater than justice folks. Here endeth the sermon. xxxx
• Bronwyn Williams, in Comments: You are perfectly correct, pilko. Everyone on TT, including the good Dr Bonham, should lighten up – not on the issues, but on the unquestioning devotion to their own ideas. When we get stuck into the government and Tas Inc, we rightly bemoan their steadfast adherence to ways of being and doing that have long since lost relevance, but many on TT are similarly resolute in their commitment to certain ways of thinking. … I am not particularly obtuse, so I assume his work is a little too esoteric – how about some ‘Psephology for Dummies’ on your new blog, Kevin?
• Mate, in Comments: PS, Kevin, apropos of a previous discussion we had, if you do move from TT to your own blog it will be like moving from an old growth forest to regrowth or a plantation. It will be just as “biodiverse”, just different, that’s all.
Dr Kevin Bonham. Pic: of Will Hodgman
12.10.12 3:52 am
Daft mainstream coverage aside, the poll’s sponsorship is the main obstacle to taking it too seriously. The polling is essentially internal polling, in that the party had no prior commitment to release it, but has chosen to do so after seeing (and liking) the results. We cannot know how many other polls the Liberals might have done through any number of pollsters, and whether this is consistent with other results that they have not released, or just the best of the bunch. We may also suspect, at least until proven otherwise, that the timing of the poll - reported as conducted on a single night - could have aimed to capitalise on a bad news cycle for the state government, making it less reliable than the results of polls taken at more regular intervals. Despite this, the Liberals are to be commended for at least releasing much more detail of their internal polling than is usual for releases of this kind.
Don’t write off Labor ... yet. Greens slump in latest poll
Dr Kevin Bonham
05.09.12 3:29 am
A Brief History of Federal Polling There is nothing about Labor’s current polling position by itself that says that Labor can’t win the next election. Those wanting to write the party’s chances off need to look elsewhere for reasons, but they are not very difficult to find, and here is one of them ...
• phill Parsons, in Comments: Abbott’s survivial is not an easy as his party’s current popularity make it appear. Thanks for the depth and number crunching Kevin, it’s good to see you here to help.
• Dr Kevin Bonham, in Comments: Another Newspoll is in with Abbott back down to -28 while Gillard is at -26. Re #9 it is, in theory, dimly possible that the government could retain power without gaining seats, but this would require another hung parliament with virtually no seats changing hands (extremely unlikely, hilarious as it would be.) The situation is not that different to that in 1914 when the Commonwealth Liberals took a majority of one into the election (which they lost because of the small matter of a world war starting), or 1963 when the net loss of a single seat would have left Menzies with a deadlocked parliament (he won easily as the causes of the tight 1961 poll had gone away and Labor lacked unity on some issues.) Note that there is no problem with an anti-Abbott voter voting for “unelectable independents”, provided that they distribute preferences and put the Coalition below Labor. If they refuse to preference either major, their vote will be informal.
By the way (albeit somewhat off-topic for a federal thread), Dr Obendorf is on to something very significant with his comment “Maybe Tom de Kadt or another Tas Green staffer could enlighten us on the number times the Tasmanian Greens 5 MPs have voted with the Opposition Liberals and defeated a significant Labor bill in the Lower House.” Various explanations for the situation are possible, but it’s a good pattern to keep an eye on all the same. The number is astonishingly small; several months ago I checked it and could only find about four distinct issues on which Green + Liberal had voted together against Labor (and some at least were to pass each other’s bill rather than voting down Labor’s). It makes a mockery of the idea that the hung state parliament means government on the floor of Parliament, because legislation that would die on the floor is simply not being introduced. Green + Liberal vs Labor was a much commoner voting pattern in the previous (Labor majority) parliament, which in this one has virtually atrophied. If time permits I intend to compile full statistics on this perhaps towards the end of this year, including comparisons with the Field, Groom and Rundle years.
• Use the TT NEWS Dropdown (top nav bar) for breaking news on latest polling etc ... Click on NEWS to get the World Google News wrap.
Gap narrows but Liberals still cruising
Dr Kevin Bonham
14.08.12 5:47 am
Image: J
EMRS: Lib 49 Lab 27 Green 22 Ind 2
Interpretation: Lib 49 Lab 31 Green 18 Ind 2*
Outcome if election was held now: Liberal Majority (13-14 seats) * (Ind may be higher depending on candidates) The ABC, Examiner, Mercury and Herald Sun reports are all pretty much the same in failing to cut through the dubious narrative provided by the pollster. Probably the only online media discussion shedding useful light on this particular poll is actually a report by Gayapolis News which reports some detailed results of a question on same-sex marriage that appears to have been conducted as part of the same polling. The poll was commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality, and overall claimed to show 61% in favour, 31% against and 8% undecided. I do not intend to comment directly on the reliability of this result itself as the poll is commissioned by an interest group and I have not seen the exact question. However the result is broadly consistent with national neutrally-conducted polls (ie those not commissioned by interest groups) and in general the survey design record of interest-group commissioned polling on this issue has been okay, despite the odd lapse (eg see comment 39 here).
Greens/Labor tie is meaningless
Dr Kevin Bonham
21.05.12 5:16 am
There’s not been that much reaction to this poll so far – predictable noises from the Liberals and the Greens, and no sign so far of the habitually too-cute spin releases from the Premier’s office. Among media commentaries, David Killick says the Libs have failed to “capitalise on the continued unpopularity of the State Government”. There’s something in that actually, although not for the reasons he advances …
Dr Kevin Bonham. Pic: of Rob Valentine
14.05.12 5:00 am
… this is perhaps Labor’s fault. In their glory days the party formally held five of the fifteen seats, and informally held a sixth. Probably only two votes shy of the power to radically reform the Upper House, Labor missed the opportunity to at least give it a big enough shake to ensure that those who had obstructed reform would be accountable for so doing at their next elections. It will be a very long time indeed before the party again threatens to hold a majority in the Upper House, so it will have plenty of time to reflect on what might have been.
Dr Kevin Bonham at the Poll-face
Editor
05.05.12 5:45 am
Follow the fortunes of the Legislative Council candidates for Western Tiers and Hobart here. Tasmanian Times’ pre-eminent psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham is planning a comment-by-comment analysis (in Comments) below. And, in keeping with the spirit of the Electoral Act, comments submitted last night on threads relating to today’s poll will not be published until after 6pm this evening.
• Dr Kevin Bonham, in Comments: … I think it’s all done and dusted. Really in both seats largely as expected, a minor surprise being just how bad the Labor vote has been in Hobart, which has permitted the Greens, by a degree of default, to get second on primaries at least. Thanks all for your interest.
• Anne Cadwallader, in Comments: Once again, well done and a huge thanks to Dr Bonham, and fantastic showing Mr Hawkins - 26% in two weeks in a very conservative electorate. Well done all.
• Nick Mckim: Penelope’s strong and clear position on issues like pokies, the pulp mill and the need to protect Tasmania’s precious forests have resonated with the people of Hobart.
• Blame me, not Penelope, says Bob Brown
LegCo: two colourful campaigns
Dr Kevin Bonham
17.04.12 3:39 am
Rob Valentine
Two Legislative Council seats go to the polls in May in contests that are already producing a degree of campaign colour but are unlikely to be cliffhangers.
John Hawkins, in Comments: TGC they are not that clever. Gordon was driving the Pulp mill bus when recruited by Lennon to a do a political hatchet job. I ask has he shown the leadership or intellectual rigour to run Forestry Tasmania or has he merely driven the bus off a cliff? Would you give Edwards or Chipman a job after the results of their years in power? When all the players in the Tasmanian Forestry industry are bankrupt, is it just possible that the fault lies with those who have been at the helm. The industry at best needs new blood at the top, it needs to be restructured and it needs to regain the confidence of its workforce.
Editors
24.03.12 4:00 pm
Follow the blow-by-blow comments on the Queensland election of the nation’s pre-eminent psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham here ...
• Use the TT News Dropdown (top Nav Bar) for commentary and breaking stories ...
Poll: no public mood for rolling Giddings
Dr Kevin Bonham
16.02.12 4:25 pm
Image: J
Forestry disagreements have historically caused minority governments in Tasmania with the Greens as the crossbench to become unstable, to the point that I’ve in the past argued that instability is the normal condition of Tasmanian minority government, in a way in which it is not in European democracies. A market downturn that appeared to have parts of the industry looking for co-operative partial exit strategies was a great blessing for this Labor-Green coalition in the early days, because it allowed them to work together on other issues productively and stably with forestry no longer holding centre stage.
But now ...
Hobart Council: blues take the reins
Dr Kevin Bonham.
03.11.11 6:00 am
The swing against the Greens can be seen in the aldermanic vote for 2011 compared with the same cycle in 2007 (2009 is not comparable as Valentine was on the aldermanic ballot, and he competes with them significantly). In 2007 the four Green aldermanic candidates polled 26%, but this year three Green candidates, including two incumbents, polled just under 21%. Former Green candidate Corey Peterson ran as an independent with about half his vote coming back to the party in preferences, so a case can be made that the swing is really more like 4% than 5%, but it was nonetheless clearly there. Some have considered that the Greens were blamed for Gehl reports, bicycle lanes and so on but in my view the typical Greens voter likes that stuff anyway. More likely the Green brand suffered local-level damage based on state issues, causing some Green supporters to not bother voting at all. Signs of such a pattern were apparent statewide with very few endorsed Greens winning seats anywhere (and those who did win were incumbents).
Hobart Council elections 2011 – the verdict live ... and elsewhere. Mayor Damon Thomas
Dr Kevin Bonham. Pic: of Dr Bonham ... in an earlier tally room
26.10.11 3:59 am
In the comments section to this article I hope to provide more or less live coverage of the unfolding Hobart Council count which commences tonight and will hopefully be finished by Friday (especially as I’ll be offline Friday afternoon!)
Elsewhere:
• ABC Online: No on-night coverage
• Mercury: Burnet’s slim lead
• Advocate: Kons back
• Examiner: Jeremy Ball new Deputy
• The official results: HERE
• Tim Morris: The Tasmanian Greens today called on the Premier to investigate options for increasing participation in local government elections, including compulsory voting and e-ballots.
• Dr Kevin Bonham, in Comments: For anyone who hasn’t checked the Electoral Office website, Damon Thomas was elected Lord Mayor of Hobart by 517 votes.
Lindsay Tuffin
08.10.11 6:14 am
It is, then, a great joy to be here tonight, introducing a man who has in his political life embodied a sense of independence and the courage, to speak Truth to Power.
• Andrew Wilkie nominated as Australian of the Year ...
(Hobart) Council: who will be the new Lord Mayor?
Dr Kevin Bonham
30.09.11 4:49 am
The candidates have been revealed for the 2011 Hobart City Council elections. The mayoralty is vacant following the retirement of the longest-serving Lord Mayor in city history (Rob Valentine), the Deputy Mayoralty will have a new owner for the second election running and there will be at least one new Alderman elected, with a strong chance of two.
Your City Council: sorted from green to blue (2009-11)
Dr Kevin Bonham
21.09.11 4:04 am
We are just weeks away from a potentially transforming Hobart City Council election, with the mayoralty on the line following the invincible incumbent’s decision to step down and run for Legislative Council next year. With Helen Burnet contesting the top job, the Deputy Mayoralty will change hands again, and following the recent passing of very long-serving alderman Darlene Haigh, this year’s election will be for seven seats instead of the usual six, with the possibility that a sitting alderman could be relegated to a two-year term. We will also see Labor’s intended entry to an arena where the Greens have had electoral success. Ahead of that, this article assesses the political line-up of the 2009-11 Council.
When both leaders are loathed – a polling dynamics history
Dr Kevin Bonham
03.09.11 5:16 am
So, as far as Leaders of strongly preferred Oppositions go, Abbott is about as bad as a discredited lame-duck leader who had lost the unloseable election, who was only seat-warming until a replacement could get the numbers, and whose opponent was probably the least popular Prime Minister while in office in all of Australian political history
• Anne Cadwallader, in Comments: This is bloody good, if rather a long history lesson. Dr. Kev has been taking his fish oil, there is even some humour. Really worthwhile knowing: 1. That while Gillard is tanking, so is Abbott as an individual leader. Thats not being said in the mainstream media. It is worth knowing. 2. That the Labor Green govt. could survive if Craig Thomson goes down, so don’t despair just yet. Again, that’s not widely touted. Handy to know that stuff about the fish too! Dr. Bonham is The Man!
