Editor. Picture: Giles Hugo
28.08.10 9:19 pm
Comment 27. And now it is completely confirmed that Wilkie has won (barring pretty much all of the few remaining votes going to one of Couser or Jackson, which most certainly will not happen). See HERE . As I have expected all along, the preferences of Couser split extremely unequally between Wilkie, Jackson and Simpkins, but the split is even more unequal than I projected with Simpkins gaining only 8% of them to Wilkie’s 53% and getting over Simpkins with (at present) 4735 votes to spare! Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 28/08/10 at 09:13 PM Comment HERE
Ed: On poll night, Dr Bonham called the election: Likely 72-73-5 (72 Labor)
Editor. Picture: Giles Hugo
28.08.10 7:29 am
Comment 23, HERE: An indicative preference distribution will be conducted by the AEC tomorrow, and is overwhelmingly likely to confirm that Wilkie will pass Simpkins on Green and Socialist preferences, thus ending any remaining popular uncertainty about this seat. At present Simpkins leads Wilkie by 877 primaries but that is nowhere near enough to withstand what will occur on Green and Socialist preferences. There are potentially 2086 votes left to include in the counting but it is unlikely that the number actually included will be that high. Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 27/08/10 at 10:07 PM Comment HERE
Ed: On poll night, Dr Bonham called the election: Likely 72-73-5 (72 Labor)
Mercury: Wilkie demands pokie death
ABC Online: Gillard to woo Wilkie
Voters in key seats want Abbott, poll shows
The Verdict, live. HUNG: Likely 72-73-5 (72 Labor)
Dr Kevin Bonham
21.08.10 7:24 am
Follow Tasmanian Times Psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham’s minute-by-minute analysis in the Comments …
See it unfold:
ABC: HERE
AEC: HERE
Denison: The Wilkie challenge:
Comment 10, 06:32 PM: First booth in in Denison and a tasty 18% for Wilkie at a booth he didn’t break 10 at in the state election. Nice start.
etc ...
Poll: Election Comment and the TT Portal ...
Editor. *Picture ...
21.08.10 6:01 am
Responsibility for election comment on Tasmanian Times is taken by Lindsay Tuffin. Use TT as your Portal …
Breaking news ...
Friday, August 20: Poll puts leaders neck and neck. All Murdoch papers bar the Advertiser and Mercury back Abbott. West Oz Abbott; Fairfax backs Gillard ... Mercury’s editorial also backs Gillard, saying it’s Not Time.
Saturday, August 21: Down to the Wire ...
We will work with winning party, Greens say
Bussiness Spectator’s Poll Position: Both leaders face a grim dawn
All earlier Breaking News ...
Lib preference scare, Labor response: both rubbish
Kevin Bonham
20.08.10 8:03 am
So this is a beat-up by the Liberals, but I believe it has been a successful one, because Labor’s response in taking the matter to the Electoral Commission is an error. It makes Labor look clueless about electoral law and it allows the Liberals to use the Electoral Commission’s response to paint Labor as sooky and give the impression there is nothing wrong with the pamphlet. In fact there is a very great deal wrong with it, but none of that has anything to do with electoral law.
( Dr Bonham’s definitive poll analysis:
Election 2010: The campaign about nothing ... ) Dr Bonham’s blow-by-blow poll coverage is on TT tomorrow night…
Today
John Lawrence's critique of forestry plans; with links to Dr Graeme Wells' analysis which reveals $767 million in forestry subsidies; and Ian Johnston's way forward
Panel on CHEMICALS gutted. PAKISTAN: A land left to drown by TIMBER MAFIA. Keep WALKING. TOMMY Fleming. WOOD fiber. Oxygen CRISIS. HIGHER temperatures. RICK's Rogues Gallery. OCEANS under stress.
SHOCK for Airdy. OOPS: Birds caught up in rabbit cull ... POLL: A Better Package. We're READY. SUNDAY PORKA back! The LEADERS. DICK'S National Food Plan. The DEBATE.
WILKIE stance welcomed. Saving LEATHERWOOD. GOOD NEWS for Hobart. Reckless bid for WOODCHIP votes. Compare the POLICIES. PPOR student Lib targets. It matters to the ABC. Restart
Congratulations, Lindsay!
I worry about the financial sustainability of the Tasmanian Times also. From personal…
WEDNESDAY: DENISON DEBATE. STUDENT readings. TRAIL action. HEAPS!!! Action galore. FULLERS speaker. GOULBURN Gallery. CUNDALL, Flanagan, Oosting. Biochar conference.