Election 2010: how Denison confused the nation
Dr Kevin Bonham
06.09.10 1:08 am
There is already much comment about whether Wilkie can retain his seat next time around, a good example being all this rubbish by Glenn Milne. The truth is that Wilkie’s election depended on primary vote defections from all three parties, on both Green and Coaltion preferences, and on Labor stuffing up both their candidate selection and their pre-campaign. With a very thin margin, if we just replay the tape with the Labor Party actually awake (decent candidate and big campaign), the seat automatically returns to sender anyway. And furthermore if Wilkie went with the Coalition he would probably have annoyed both the Greens who preferenced him ahead of Labor, and the ex-Labor supporters from the northern suburbs whose defections to his cause were critical. As far as I can determine, those whose preferences Wilkie relied on to beat Labor (including those who gave him their first vote) were probably split fairly evenly between the major parties. By going with Labor he may very well have irritated the Liberal voters who supported or preferenced him, and some Libs may well be seething with disgust about that at the moment and saying all kinds of silly things.
Editor. Picture: Giles Hugo
28.08.10 9:19 pm
Comment 27. And now it is completely confirmed that Wilkie has won (barring pretty much all of the few remaining votes going to one of Couser or Jackson, which most certainly will not happen). See HERE . As I have expected all along, the preferences of Couser split extremely unequally between Wilkie, Jackson and Simpkins, but the split is even more unequal than I projected with Simpkins gaining only 8% of them to Wilkie’s 53% and getting over Simpkins with (at present) 4735 votes to spare! Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 28/08/10 at 09:13 PM Comment HERE
Ed: On poll night, Dr Bonham called the election: Likely 72-73-5 (72 Labor)
Editor. Picture: Giles Hugo
28.08.10 7:29 am
Comment 23, HERE: An indicative preference distribution will be conducted by the AEC tomorrow, and is overwhelmingly likely to confirm that Wilkie will pass Simpkins on Green and Socialist preferences, thus ending any remaining popular uncertainty about this seat. At present Simpkins leads Wilkie by 877 primaries but that is nowhere near enough to withstand what will occur on Green and Socialist preferences. There are potentially 2086 votes left to include in the counting but it is unlikely that the number actually included will be that high. Posted by Dr Kevin Bonham on 27/08/10 at 10:07 PM Comment HERE
Ed: On poll night, Dr Bonham called the election: Likely 72-73-5 (72 Labor)
Mercury: Wilkie demands pokie death
ABC Online: Gillard to woo Wilkie
Voters in key seats want Abbott, poll shows
The Verdict, live. HUNG: Likely 72-73-5 (72 Labor)
Dr Kevin Bonham
21.08.10 7:24 am
Follow Tasmanian Times Psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham’s minute-by-minute analysis in the Comments …
See it unfold:
ABC: HERE
AEC: HERE
Denison: The Wilkie challenge:
Comment 10, 06:32 PM: First booth in in Denison and a tasty 18% for Wilkie at a booth he didn’t break 10 at in the state election. Nice start.
etc ...
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21.08.10 6:01 am
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Election 2010: how Denison confused the nation ... Dr Kevin Bonham's definitive post-poll analysis
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