Comments
That’s another great summary.
I suspect Lennon’s inability to get traction on environmental announcements is because he just can’t be trusted.
Lennon canned the idea of a Tarkine and Styx protected area and a buyoff of Recherche Bay. The Greens long advocated it and out of the blue Lennon jumps on board for electoral appeal.
Environmental protection is not in his heart and people know it. The more green he gets the greater the perception that the Greens have been right all along. He validates their position. That makes him look weak, not strong.
The only thing that will help Labor’s environmental image is by having a leader that doesn’t feel awkward about making the first move.
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 23/02/06 at 04:30 AMVery interesting article. I think the perspective to keep here is that there are several weeks ahead and people will have a chance to think hard about their voting choices.
Premier Lennon is a liability in some electorates and yet will be strongly supported for his intransigence on Greens issues in other parts of the State. I would agree that the Greens are on a great chance to get the second spot in Denison, but not much will change in more conservative parts of the state. Cassy O’Connor knows this which probably explains her move to the Greens rather than working her way further through Labor party structures (that and her opposition to development at Ralphs Bay of course - the daggers would have been out).
I dont think Labor will lose anything in Franklin with the visibility of Lennon, Wriedt and Giddings. McKim has done a terrific job for the Greens over recent years - articulate, to the point, without the annoying turn of phrase of his leader etc. But he wont pull in another candidate. Will Hodgman has also been the most positive thing about the Liberals in recent years, but there is not a visible enough Lib colleague to pull in with him.
A change is very unlikely in Braddon. Many voters in this electorate will be mainly concerned with securing a majority government, even if they may be traditional liberal supporters. Whether we see a majority or minority Labor government will I think depend on what happens in Lyons and the electoral appeal of O’Byrne. I suspect O’Byrne has broad visibility and appeal, and some community sympathy for losing in the federal election - so should pull it off in Bass.
My prediction is Labor returned -1 seat in Denison. Cassy O’Connor becomes the new Greens MHA and will duke it out with McKim (go McKim!) for next leader. What beats me is who votes for (and why?) for Booth and Morris?? They are the invisible men of the Greens - nowt to say, nowt to contribute. Dwarfed in appeal and ideas by McKim and O’Connor. And yes, this is where I tempt the rabid Greens denizens of TT to flame me. Flame on!
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 23/02/06 at 12:25 PMHello super_Annoyed,
Invisible?
You can see Kim Booth on http://www.twovisions.net
Just download the production, or request a DVD on the link. It may turn your super ego up, but such is life.
If you like to see more, just try a google search - BASS MHA “Kim Booth”.Not a Greens member, but…
Facts for changePosted by Facts for change on 23/02/06 at 01:36 PMThe invisible men of the Greens? No, the quiet men who do a great deal behind the scenes for individual constituents who request their help, and for the party itself. They are hard working members of the parliamentary team.
Having media appeal and the ability (and inclination) to put together a snappy soundbite are great attributes for a politician to have, but are certainly not essential to doing the job well and delivering for their electorate. The Greens have a great balance of personalities and talent amongst their MHAs - Cassy O’Connor will certainly add to this if elected, as will Paul O’Halloran in Braddon, but it’s never a good idea to confuse media appeal and competence.
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 23/02/06 at 02:04 PMI have now seen the EMRS poll results (thanks to the kind person who sent them!) and the Franklin sample was 37-29-24, which would certainly return 2-2-1 if it was a perfectly accurate reflection. However within the margin of error of the sample it could go 3-1-1 or even 2-1-2 instead.
Bass is 39-38-20 which is a straightforward 2-2-1. With Hay not recontesting, Bass seems to be the dullest electorate, the main interest in it being whether Peter Gutwein retains his seat or not.
I meant to cover the Franklin situation more thoroughly in my article. Yes Labor has three sitting members and the Libs could suffer from the lack of a high-profile alternative, with the leakage issues this can lead to. However Labor still has to keep the overall gap between them and the Liberals high enough for this to matter. Last election it was 28%. If it drops below about 15% it becomes very hard for Labor to win three. Giddings has lost her seat before (albeit a different seat, and within her own party) and the soft-focus pushing of her in recent weeks, to the point that the voter could be mistaken for assuming she is Minister for Small Fluffy Animals, indicates how concerned Labor are about her seat.
I would like to stress that the articles I submit in this section typically reflect my psephelogical opinions of candidates only, which can be radically different from my political or personal views of them. In the comments section the line will sometimes (as in my exchanges with Jeff Briscoe in the Hobart City Council threads) become far less clear or even be crossed entirely.
I will be discussing the election this Friday on Edge Radio with Simon Brown sometime between 11am and midday.
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 23/02/06 at 03:19 PMSA, what makes you think Cassy was ever ‘working her way’ through the Labor party structures?
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 23/02/06 at 06:50 PMGiven the focus on spin by the State government, it would be interesting to know how much ex-Examiner boss Rod Scott and his cohorts of spin have contributed to Labor’s ‘success’, and whether Paul Lennon’s obvious faith in news manipulation may have deterred him from taking other action…like fixing the problems instead of reframing them.
A. Cynic
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 24/02/06 at 01:53 AMIt seems to me that Peter Gutwein will poll better than Sue Napier. There will probably be no change in Bass (apart, obviously, from O’Byrne for Hay) but the combined Green/Rochester vote could well be over 1.5 quotas. And look out for David Fry. The extreme Christian Right has never been better organised.
Posted by Justa Bloke on 24/02/06 at 02:34 AMRight on the money, Richard.
Giving the amount of tax payer money being spent on spin it’s amazing just how badly it’s going for Labor.
Perhaps they would be better off employing Shane Warne.
The problem Lennon faces that if you keep spinning long enough you either get dizzy or end up back at the same place you started from.
I find it highly amusing that Big red wants to spend $30m on the TMAG.
Perhaps it’s to ensure there is somewhere to display this political dinosaur when it finally becomes extinct.
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 24/02/06 at 08:30 AM
