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Update (close of counting Tuesday night).
Paula Wriedt now leads Vanessa Goodwin by an effective 381 votes with only the 2381 votes of Labor’s Ross Butler, the 3712 votes of the Liberals’ Mike Allie and the 2182 Green preferences to go. Everything is on Wriedt’s side now. She is leading, she has less exposure to leakage, the Liberals will probably proportionally leak more anyway, and above all the Green preferences will favour her strongly. Wriedt will win this seat rather comfortably in the end, probably by c. 1000 votes.
In Bass, Kim Booth trails Steve Reissig by a notional 583 votes, with 775 votes from Labor’s Grant Courtney, 3790 votes from Labor’s Michelle Cripps, and 4984 votes from the Liberals’ David Fry (most of which will go towards putting fellow Liberals Peter Gutwein and Sue Napier over the line) left to throw. Currently the Liberals’ surplus is 1343 votes, which will have to be allocated between Labor, Green and exhaust either as surpluses from Gutwein and Napier or as leakage from Fry. Labor is unlikely to gain more than 300 on the Greens (if that) out of these votes as many will exhaust and the Greens will get some, so the question is how much Labor will lose relative to Booth because of leakage. Based on the bulk of Courtney’s votes, Booth is going like a train - he has closed from 952 votes behind with 5946 Labor left to throw to 583 behind with 4565 left to throw. It doesn’t help Labor that many of Courtney’s have gone to Cripps and will now have to be thrown again giving them another opportunity to leak. If the leak in the rest of the Labor votes is as severe as it has been from Courtney so far then Booth should win by about 400. It may not be that bad, but at this moment Booth is not only in the race but if anything is a very slight favourite - don’t believe anything you hear on the ABC news!
Posted by on 29/03/06 at 03:01 PMThe leak from the remainder of Courtney’s votes was less severe than from the first lot. Booth now notionally trails by 523 with 4122 from Cripps plus Fry’s 4986 to throw.
If Cripps leaks as much as Courtney did in total, Booth will be 446 ahead of Reissig with Fry to throw, and should win by at least 200 from there.
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 02:56 AMOtherwise, if he has to depend on Fry’s surplus, Booth is stuffed.
Posted by Justa Bloke on 30/03/06 at 04:06 AMSomething of mild interest in Denison - Lisa Singh is caning Graeme Sturges on preferences by 910 votes with 958 from Cassy O’Connor and 6406 from Louise Sullivan to throw (I do not think Sullivan can bridge the 319 she trails Dixon by off O’Connor’s 958.) Before the election it was widely predicted that Sturges would poll extremely well, maybe even over a quota, and Bartlett was considered to be the one who might struggle. In fact Sturges, while he will be elected, has been beaten in by a member elected on a recount after him and looks like also being beaten in by a new candidate. Indeed he is only 805 ahead of Sullivan.
Justa Bloke: correct. Booth must lead before Fry’s surplus, and probably needs a three-figure lead. I have just heard Bruce Taylor say on radio that Labor is now more likely to win but do not know the basis (if any) of these comments. No TE update since 10:40am - it will take a fair while to throw, count and confirm Cripps’ first bundle of c.3000 votes.
Paula Wriedt has just been elected - 308 votes ahead of Allie and Goodwin combined so I don’t think we will get a margin for Wriedt over Goodwin, but it would be substantial.
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 05:18 AMFry’s preferences, I meant.
Posted by Justa Bloke on 30/03/06 at 05:18 AMCripps has been thrown and Booth leads Reissig by 425 votes. Fry has 5068 to throw but 3352 will be used up electing Gutwein and Napier, leaving 1716 to be split between Booth, Reissig and exhaust. This looks good for Booth but will have some further projection detail shortly.
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 06:10 AMKevin - you are a freak! After Cripps was cut up, Booth leads Reissig by 415 (cf your estimate of 446).
Only 5068 Fry votes to go now. Will Booth keep his noes in front?
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 06:37 AMKevin the psephologist said: “If Cripps leaks as much as Courtney did in total, Booth will be 446 ahead of Reissig with Fry to throw, and should win by at least 200 from there.”
Only 25 or so out. I’m impressed.
So we’ll be left with 14 Labor, 7 Liberal and 4 Green.
I wonder if Putt is feeling even sillier about her emotional outburst on election night.
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 07:02 AMThere are two comparable recent cases in which a Liberal was excluded from the count and all remaining Liberals elected as a result, leaving the remaining votes to split between Labor, Green and exhaust.
In Denison 1998, 2861 votes split Labor 683, Green 541 and exhaust 1637, for a Labor gain of .049 votes per vote thrown (about 1 vote in 20), or a 56:44 split Labor/Green of those not exhausting.
In Franklin 1998, 2867 votes split Labor 888, Green 640 and exhaust 1339, for a Labor gain of .087 votes per vote thrown (about 1 vote in 11), or a 58:42 split Labor/Green of those not exhausting. However there were two Labor candidates still in the count so that figure is inflated compared with Bass.
This election, 1716 votes will be split between Labor, Green and exhaust. Assuming exhaust is the same as in Denison 1998 (57% of votes leaving the Liberals), Reissig needs a 79:21 split Labor/Green of those not exhausting.
While Fry is extremely conservative, even when he was excluded from Bass in 1998 his leakage favoured Labor over Greens 75:25 when there were four Labor candidates left to one Green and Booth’s profile was way lower than it is now. The split is unlikely to be that drastic this time and while Reissig may still close this is now a very likely Green win.
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 07:14 AMRob, her name is Peg. She is a great leader and what she said on election night was true.
If Kim Booth pulls through in Bass it will reinforce the real strength of the Greens; to hold our ground in the face of such an alignment of collaborating, anti-Green forces would be an extraordinary feat.
The Greens will only get stronger.Kevin, I am REALLY enjoying your analysis!
Thank you
Cass.Posted by Cassy O'Connor on 30/03/06 at 08:17 AMIt’s over! The final result was closer than I expected a few hours ago, and it looks like many who voted Liberal down the line kept going to give preferences to Labor but Booth has won by 136 votes.
I will have a full psephelogical wrapup piece soon, hopefully tonight or tomorrow.
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 09:03 AM... Can you hear it? Sounds of joyous laughter all over Tasmania. Sheer, unbridled elation.
Bless the intricate beauty of Hare Clark!
; o ) Cackling Cassy
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 09:06 AMCassy: I’ll drink to that. But wait ... oh yes ..... I’m am!!!!!! Like Kim said: it twern’t over till it was over!
Posted by on 30/03/06 at 09:43 AM
