1. The possibility of restoring the old 35-seat system in the Tasmanian House of Assembly is currently being discussed ahead of a motion to be moved by the Greens.
2. Looking at past election results and current polling, the 35-seat system is slightly more proportionally accurate, while the 25-seat system is slightly more prone to “over-represent” the major parties in comparison to vote share.
3. However, precise proportional representation in the Tasmanian context can easily be argued to be overrated anyway.
4. Of the elections considered (and a 2014 projection based on current polling), only in the case of 1998 did the choice of systems determine the election result.
5. Majority government is slightly more likely on average with 25 seats than with 35 seats, but in many scenarios the number of seats makes no real difference to its chances.
6. Strategic considerations favour the Greens supporting an increase in the number of seats and the Liberals opposing it, while for the Labor Party there are arguments on both sides.
7. The view that the Greens could plausibly win more seats than Labor at the next election if the 25-seat system is retained is not consistent with current polling.
8. It is not correct to blame too many problems in Tasmanian politics on the 25-seat system since politics under the 35-seat system was also very turbulent and crisis-prone during its last two decades.
Read more:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/tasmanian-lower-house-25-or-35-seats.html
If you have a question or comment for Dr Bonham you can post it on his site. You will need to have (or to create) a Google/Blogger account, LiveJournal profile, WordPress account, AIM profile, TypePad account or OpenID to comment.
• Also note a recent opt-in “Not-A-Poll” on the site resulted in Jim Bacon being voted readers’ choice as the best Tasmanian Premier of the last 30 years, with almost twice as many votes as his nearest challenger. You can see the full results and analysis plus some history of each of the Premiers at:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/not-poll-best-tasmanian-premier-of-last.html
