Dr Kevin Bonham
Re #3, Greens voters always tend to preference Labor no matter what the issues going on, and Green decisions concerning how-to-vote cards have little impact on this. In 2004 Greens voters in Bass preferenced Labor over the Coalition 79-21 and in 2007 it was 74-26. Even Dick Adams, who is noted for his pro-forestry stance, was still preferenced 71-29 by Green voters in 2007 (down from 76-24 in 2004). The slight downturns in Labor preferences from the Greens in 2007 were with the Latham forests policy dumped and the Greens not preferencing either major party. So actually in Bass there was a swing against Labor in the way Greens preferences distributed in 2007. Assuming no primary vote swing between the two parties it would take a further 6.5% swing on Greens preference distribution (down to around 67-33) to unseat Campbell. Even the Greens preferencing the Liberals wouldn’t alone be enough to do it. What would do it is if the Liberals themselves preselected an explicitly anti-mill candidate, but that would create a primary swing against the Libs that would render the preferences situation irrelevant. What Campbell may be thinking is that there is some risk of a small primary swing to the Liberals in the next federal election. If such a swing happens Campbell needs to hold every green preference she can get, and this creates a reason to sit on the fence. It appears to be the optimum strategy in this particular seat at this time. Read more, Comment here
