Just some quick notes about the ReachTEL poll of Bass (federal) that appeared in the Examiner today.
The findings are rather dramatic, with the Liberals’ Andrew Nikolic supposedly leading Labor’s Geoff Lyons 60.3-39.7 two-party preferred (based on preferences distributed as per the 2010 election), for a neat 17-point swing from the 2010 results. The Liberals are on 54.7%, otherwise known as an outright majority, Labor is on 26.7, the Greens are on 8.7, and about ten respondents believe Bob Katter’s hat has been washed more recently than mine.
I think the 17-point swing is overcooking it just a little bit, which is not to say the swing won’t be that big come election day. There is a very high vote for “Other” (7.9%), and in the absence of any known, specific force that would receive those “Other” votes, I believe those “Other” votes would include a number of soft Labor voters and possibly also some ultra-Green splitters. Thus I believe the preferences of these “Others” would actually favour Labor more than would be determined by using the 2010 election results, and that a more realistic reading of the swing might be, say, 15 points.
But it makes no difference. If the poll is anywhere near accurate …
Read the rest, Comment, on Dr Kevin Bonham’s commentary, here
