EMRS: Liberal 55 Labor 23 (-4) Green 18 (+3) Ind 4 (+1)
Interpretation: Liberal 56 Labor 25 Green 15 Ind 4 (Ind figure depending on candidates)
Outcome “if election was held now”: Liberal majority win (14-16 seats)
[..]
The very helpful trend tracking on the EMRS website shows that this is the Liberals’ equal highest headline reading in this term, matching the 55 in August 2011 and the same in November 2012. But it is actually better than that for the party because their figure including undecided votes (46 – Table 2) is now at its highest level in EMRS history, compared to the 44 in Aug 2011 and the 43 in Nov 2012.
[..]
While there has been praise for the work of the Tasmania Fire Service in fighting and documenting the fires, the government’s disaster relief response at the time was widely seen as somewhere between lethargic and invisible, with much of the co-ordination being conducted by volunteers via social media. There has not been much good news for the government on other fronts either, with the ongoing forestry peace deal process not yet looking much closer to the resolution that a lot of voters probably don’t want anyway. The Legislative Council inquiry into the deal has now heard from so many voices that are deeply critical of the deal and the process that created it, that the LegCo now has plenty of ammunition if it wants to argue a case for just throwing the whole thing out.
The especially telling thing about the government’s bushfire response is that governments have often benefited – in the short term – in the wake of natural disasters.
Read more http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/emrs-expected-today.html
Also note Dr Bonham’s Legislative Council challenger guide is updated when candidates are announced or at other relevant times at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/legco-two-early-challengers.html
If you have a question or comment for Dr Bonham you can post it on his site. You will need to have (or to create) a Google/Blogger account, LiveJournal profile, WordPress account, AIM profile, TypePad account or
OpenID to comment.
